2000: Bradley/Kerrey vs. McCain/Smith

[All Along The Watchtower]

The premise of this is that Bill Bradley wins the Democratic nomination in 2000, and picks Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska as his running mate, while John McCain beats George W. Bush in a close primary and picks rock-ribbed conservative Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire as his running mate.

Feel free to discuss, with or without maps.

[VPH]

Bradley's reaction to 9/11 is sensible and calculated, not hawkish. However, overall national sentiment remains hawkish, on alert, and ready for war against Iraq, which has been denounced by Bradley. Thus, John McCain runs as a hawkish maverick who wants to reform DC culture and invade Iraq/ramp up the war on terror. He wins a major victory. Nader loses votes compared to irl due to national sentiment and Bradley's war stance. However, conservative doves turn to Pat Buchanan as an alternative, and with Morry's money, he outperforms his irl results.

John McCain/Bob Smith-305-51%
Bill Bradley/Bob Kerrey-233-46%
Pat Buchanan/Morry Taylor-0-2%
Ralph Nader/Winona LaDuke-0-1%

[Kingpoleon]

327: Sen. John McCain(R-AZ)/Sen. Bob Smith(R-NH) - 49.7%
211: Sen. Bill Bradley(D-NJ)/Sen. Bob Kerrey(D-NA) - 45.8%
000: Ralph Nader(Reform/Green-CT)/David Cobb(Reform/Green-TX) - 4.2%
Other: 0.2%

[Jerseyrules]

John McCain / Bob Smith (R): 50.2% PV; 334 EV
Bill Bradley / Bob Kerrey (D): 46.2% PV; 204 EV
Ralph Nader / David Cobb: 2.2% PV; 0 EV

I don't think Nader would do any better against Bradley, and in fact would probably do worse.  Bradley would be anti-establishment and liberal enough to reel in progressive Dems that defected to Nader in otl 2000.  Bob Smith would be an interesting choice for running mate, though I think McCain's best bet might be Elizabeth Dole (and IIRC she was his pick otl as well).

Nader would probably still hit the 2% mark though, and would continue to be a force to be reckoned with come 2004 without costing Gore the election in 2000.  And it would probably be one of the cleanest campaigns in modern history; IIRC McCain and Bradley respected each other and were good friends (maybe worked on each other on campaign finance?)

It'd be an interesting scenario for sure

[Kingpoleon]

Nader gains most Buchanan supporters and about 30% of the Perot supporters that went to Gore. His ceiling is six or seven percent, but that's if he gets some money behind him.