ElectoralCalculus UPDATED!

[afleitch]

Now you can predict the 2009/10 election...if you wish

[Polkergeist]

Thanks for the update !

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very interesting.

[Polkergeist]

Before the election the for the Lib Dems to gain seats they had more success in doing so by taking votes off the Tories rather than Labour. Lets give the following example

10 % swing from Labour to Lib Dems in 2005

PV: Lab 31 Con 32 LD 28 Oth 9

Seats
LAB 319  -84
CON 226  +61
LIB DEM 70  +19
OTH 31  +4

10 % swing from Tories to Lib Dems in 2005

PV: Lab 41 Con 22 LD 28 Oth 9

Seats
LAB 445  +42
CON 34 -131
LIB DEM 140 +89
OTH 27  +0

In short the Lib Dems would gain more seats by taking votes against the Tories rather than Labour.

However this was not complemented in their election strategy with their anti-war, anti-tutition fee, tax hike policies. These were more appealing to the left and thus Labour voters. The election saw not much seat gain but a Lib Dem swing in labour seats thus becoming the second party in the north.

So where would a 10% swing against either the Tories or Labour to the Lib Dems leave them ?

10 % swing from Labour to Lib Dems at next election

PV: Lab 26 Con 33 LD 33 Oth 8

Seats
CON  276 +78
LAB  195 -161
LIB DEM  143  +81


10 % swing from Tories to Lib Dems at the next election

PV: Lab 36 Con 23 LD 33 Oth 8

Seats
CON  52  -146
LAB  383 +27
LIB DEM  181 +119

The results above have shown that while the Tories have made gains against Labour the easier road to Government for the Lib Dems is to take votes of the Tories however they won't be able to do this unless they can take a centrist tack in their policies however this risks loosing the disaffected left Labour voters they have gained since the Iraq war. This paradox shows their are limits to the Lib Dem's growth.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Polk, while the LibDems might gain fewer serts by concentrating on Labour, they create a hung parliament by doing so.  Also if they stay left and Labour swings right, they can get that 10% swing effect from the Conservatives by having Labour take it from the Tories while the LibDems take it from Labour.

[Polkergeist]

Polk, while the LibDems might gain fewer serts by concentrating on Labour, they create a hung parliament by doing so. 

True

Also if they stay left and Labour swings right, they can get that 10% swing effect from the Conservatives by having Labour take it from the Tories while the LibDems take it from Labour.

True again, but how much further down can the Tories go in the PV ? They're pretty much at their base vote now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think the LibDems can gain many more votes from Labour. They tried it in the '80's and it failed. They won't try it again if they have any sense.
The logical thing for them to do would be to emphasise they're fairly right wing economic policies and, at the same time, they're socially liberal policies. They'd pick up a fair few suburban seats from the Tories if they tried that; admittedly it would leave a couple of M.P's vunerable to Labour (including some big names like Simon Hughes) but they're current position of not having a unified ideology isn't sustainable in the long run, especially if they're position in local government collapses as it's almost certain to do in the next few years, and becoming a left liberal party would leave even more high profile M.P's vunerable (this time to the Tories) than the other option.
Unless they do something, they could have a very bad few years ahead of them.

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm not even gonna start predicting the 2009/10 election

Dave