Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Pennsylvania:
Senators: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican
Representatives: 5 Democrats, 13 Republicans
Governor: Democrat (won by almost 10 percentage points in Nov 2012)
State Legislature: Republicans hold 30-20 majority in the Senate and a 120-83

I think it'll depend on the ticket of each Party as to whether Pennsylvania is a swing state in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NJ was a swing state in 2004, and Kerry won it by six pts. With the Convention in Philly and with BoB Casey and Rendell as Clinton supporters, she will marginally win the state by 2-4 pts.

Toomey numbers are inflated he's not up by 15, he's up by probably six points.

[DS0816]

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.

Show us the 2004 electoral map in which incumbent Republican president George W. Bush, whose popular-vote margin was 2.46 percentage points, carried the state of Pennsylvania.

[DS0816]

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.

Show us the 2004 electoral map in which incumbent Republican president George W. Bush, whose popular-vote margin was 2.46 percentage points, carried the state of Pennsylvania.

That was 11 years ago. There have been 2 elections since then. The PVI shifts after each election. Nice try.

Barack Van Buren/ssuperflash/et al.,

TNvolunteer should be able to answer without your assistance.




Once more:

TNvolunteer—show us the 2004 map in which incumbent Republican president George W. Bush carried the state of Pennsylvania while he won the U.S. Popular Vote by 2.46 percentage points!

[MT Treasurer]

Once more:

TNvolunteer—show us the 2004 map in which incumbent Republican president George W. Bush carried the state of Pennsylvania while he won the U.S. Popular Vote by 2.46 percentage points!

Dismissed because 2004 is not relevant to the discussion. Or do you want to argue that OR is in serious danger of flipping to the GOP in 2016 if the Democrats win the popular vote by half a point?

I think we all know the answer, DS0816.

[TJ in Oregon]

If Dems lose either NH or Pa its over. Bob Casey Jr who is beloved by Pa voters and Rendell who is Jewish, along with Castro who is Catholic will rescue Clinton in Pa.

Clinton may very well end up winning PA but I am quite sure it won't be because Castro has some sort of added Catholic appeal in Pennsylvania. For starters there is a good chance the Republicans will nominate a Catholic and hardly anyone will care what the VP nominee's religion is.

[Blair]

How many Catholics who aren't going to vote HRC are going to wake up and say 'oh her VP is a catholic so she must be good

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Practicing catholics are Tradtl, but nonpracticing ones dont always vote that way. Wolf was elected overwelmingly, and Kerry won the state.

This Pope isnt Benedict either, except for life issue he supports immigration and SSM. I think alot of Pa catholics are that way

[Torie]

It is kind of interesting, that so many maps have VA as going Dem, in a very tight election. Why? Because despite it having a dead even PVI, it's trending Dem. And there is not that much controversy about it. But when it comes to Pub trending PA, and in the last two elections, trending at a faster rate than VA in the Dem direction, with about a .75% Dem PVI, it causes fire fight as to whether PA is in real play in a very tight election. Sure 75 basis points, which is the difference, is not chopped liver, but all the sound and fury about it all, just doesn't make that much sense to me.

I think some of it is due to this perception, that the Pubs will have trouble closing the 4% margin by which Romney lost. True, if that is the margin, the Dems are going to win. They are very, very probably going to win with a 2% margin (even a 1% margin is very likely to be enough). So if the Pubs cannot close the popular vote gap nationwide, it's curtains for them. But if they do, and given that swings vary, if it is not PA where they close the gap more than the nation, where is it going to be? Some states need to trend Pub. All states don't swing equally. Which states might that be, if not PA? And I say this in the context, that absent the Dem candidate being a liberal black (a secular one to boot), one might posit that the Dem candidate might do better in some places than whatever the national swing in many places in the South. So if one posits a Dem trend in much of the South, that means that there needs to be even more of a Pub trend elsewhere, in order to get to the overall national swing.

In summary, much of the heat about PA to me seems to be conflating how much the swing will be, as opposed to the trend. It's two different issues.

[DS0816]

Once more:

TNvolunteer—show us the 2004 map in which incumbent Republican president George W. Bush carried the state of Pennsylvania while he won the U.S. Popular Vote by 2.46 percentage points!

Dismissed because 2004 is not relevant to the discussion. Or do you want to argue that OR is in serious danger of flipping to the GOP in 2016 if the Democrats win the popular vote by half a point?

I think we all know the answer, DS0816.

Incorrect.

2004 is relevant.

The PVIs, which are a fixation by numerous of this thread's posters (who assume that's all that should be observed), show Pennsylvania was further away from the Republicans in their party's 2000 and 2004 wins.

Now, whether it's you (or someone else), tell us how "Pennsylvania" is a true swing state when it hasn't carried for the Republicans once after the 1980s while both parties had presidential-winning years with (as this thread's title mentions) Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado in their columns.

[DS0816]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Dude, you sound like a ing psycho. I can comment whenever I want, this is an open discussion, big shot.

I'm sorry about that!

I had assumed you were trying to protect TNvolunteer…and wondered why you felt the need.

[MT Treasurer]

Franklin & Marshall pollster views Pennsylvania as relevant in 2016 campaign

Surely a Republican hack, amirite? Btw: He also thinks either Kasich or Rubio will win the nomination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Franklin & Marshall had Toomey up by 12 which was proven false. But Clinton will win by 2.5 and Sestak by .5 or McGinty.

[Torie]

Franklin & Marshall had Toomey up by 12 which was proven false. But Clinton will win by 2.5 and Sestak by .5 or McGinty.

I just love your precise percentage predictions. Are you sure the margin by which Toomey will lose is 0.5%?  Why wouldn't it be 0.2675%?  What's Clinton's national margin going to be while we are at it? I want to know PA's PVI, and I want to know it now!

[Xing]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily.

How? The next time a Republican wins the presidency, PA will flip. PA and VA (and perhaps CO as well) are the ultimate bellwether states in 2016.

I don't think anyone except the biggest Democratic hacks consider PA a "safe blue state." I would call it a Lean D state, as it's less elastic than states like CO, IA, and NH, and I would expect at least the first two to go Republican before PA. The PVI of one election is not the be-all, end-all. Consider this:

CO: Obama +5.4, rated toss-up
VA: Obama +3.9, rated toss-up
OH: Obama +3, rated toss-up
NC: Romney +2, rated Lean/Likely R

I'm aware that Obama won the popular vote fairly easily, but why should we assume the popular vote will be a tie?

Just because PA almost ended up being the tipping point state in 2012 doesn't mean that it will be in 2016. As I said, it's not safe for the Democrats, but in an extremely close election (think 2000), I'm 99% confident that it will go Democratic.

You wrote a lot of words that ended up stating that you are 99% certain that PA will have a Dem PVI, without really saying why. What I have been saying, is that it is foolish really to have much certainty one way or the other as to whether PA will have a Dem PVI. Sure, odds are that it will, but the odds are hardly anywhere near 99%. Maybe 60% or 65% seems more like it to me.

You don't think there's evidence? Okay then... PA hasn't gone Republican since the 80s, it's had a Democratic PVI in every recent election, and there's very little evidence suggesting that it's trending Republican, other than that Obama "only" won it by 5.4%. Claiming that PA will go Democratic in a close race is an assumption, but it's much more justified than the assumption that it's a pure toss-up, and as much of one as states that haven't gone for the same party in every election, don't have a stable PVI, and show a clear trend in one direction or anything. Stating PA is as competitive as OH as a "fact" is as ludicrous as claiming that AZ is as likely to go Democratic as NC, or even FL. Or saying it's a "fact" that CO will magically become a Safe R state next year. There's no guarantee that the future will resemble the past, but it's a much more justified view to hold than the idea that the future will be radically different without any sign of change.

[Torie]

Well this topic has been beaten to death, and again, nothing is 99% certain. Sure, it is more likely that in 2016 Ohio will have a more Pub PVI than PA based on the past (even though recently Ohio has trended Dem, and PA Pub). In the present however, Hillary is doing better in the polls in Ohio than PA. But polls can change, and will, and it's early. My main beef is that there is so much certainty exuded in so many posts, when the main theme of this election cycle, is a lot of uncertainty.

[/]

Obvious 2016 Map:

[DS0816]

Obvious 2016 Map:

LOL

[Xing]

Obvious 2016 Map:

I'd say it's more like this:

[Nichlemn]

It is kind of interesting, that so many maps have VA as going Dem, in a very tight election. Why? Because despite it having a dead even PVI, it's trending Dem. And there is not that much controversy about it. But when it comes to Pub trending PA, and in the last two elections, trending at a faster rate than VA in the Dem direction, with about a .75% Dem PVI, it causes fire fight as to whether PA is in real play in a very tight election. Sure 75 basis points, which is the difference, is not chopped liver, but all the sound and fury about it all, just doesn't make that much sense to me.

I think some of it is due to this perception, that the Pubs will have trouble closing the 4% margin by which Romney lost. True, if that is the margin, the Dems are going to win. They are very, very probably going to win with a 2% margin (even a 1% margin is very likely to be enough). So if the Pubs cannot close the popular vote gap nationwide, it's curtains for them. But if they do, and given that swings vary, if it is not PA where they close the gap more than the nation, where is it going to be? Some states need to trend Pub. All states don't swing equally. Which states might that be, if not PA? And I say this in the context, that absent the Dem candidate being a liberal black (a secular one to boot), one might posit that the Dem candidate might do better in some places than whatever the national swing in many places in the South. So if one posits a Dem trend in much of the South, that means that there needs to be even more of a Pub trend elsewhere, in order to get to the overall national swing.

In summary, much of the heat about PA to me seems to be conflating how much the swing will be, as opposed to the trend. It's two different issues.

Torie was bang on here.

Sooo much prognosticating in this forum (and to be fair, outside of it too) basically takes the form "assume the status quo pretty much continues forever".

[ApatheticAustrian]

simple: PA is a swing state if rep turnout is high.

dem's bottom is higher.....and their urban base is much bigger than in OH/IA.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

Thank you for this freedom thread

[MT Treasurer]

PA is still fool's gold for Republicans, right?

Lol, this thread is hilarious.