Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO
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  Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO
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Author Topic: Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO  (Read 9464 times)
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ExtremeRepublican
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« on: October 07, 2015, 08:37:21 PM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2015, 08:42:23 PM »

This "Fun Fact" is neither fun nor factual. Sad
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2015, 08:52:41 PM »

No, it's not.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2015, 09:01:23 PM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.

lol @ the notion that PA is more of a swing state than NC or FL.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2015, 09:18:21 PM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

So...

How do you figure that? PA has a record of being 2.5% more Democratic than the country for more than 30 years, and has only been won by the GOP once in nearly 30 years?

A swing state suggests that it needs to be won by the other party with a degree of regularity to be called a true swing state.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2015, 10:00:49 PM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

What exactly are you going off of?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2015, 10:05:21 PM »

Citation needed
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2015, 10:08:36 PM »

Can you at least provide something to back up your assertion...?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2015, 10:09:18 PM »

This "Fun Fact" is neither fun nor factual. Sad
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2015, 05:27:56 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 05:34:06 AM by eric82oslo »

Should this be a surprise? I've said this for years. Pennsylvania is probably among the 2-3 most important battleground states at this point in time, due to its (Republican) trendline, its massive amount of EVs and the fact that it has been shockingly close to being the tipping point state in the last two elections. Also the fact obviously that a big chunk of the state is basically like West Virginia, inhabited by lots of Amish people and other religious nuts. Also, Pennsylvania has among the slowest growth rates when it comes to latinos and other minority groups, probably due to a very slow economic growth rate which has lead to another very slow demographic growth rate. This very slow rise in its minority population is probably why its seen its political impact trend Republican for the past decade. In states like Florida, Virginia, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas however, the minority population is skyrocketing and has been for a really long while now.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2015, 07:28:19 AM »

If you follow the nominal votes in PA,  it would seem it's trended Democratic over the last 20 years.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2015, 07:34:47 AM »

If you follow the nominal votes in PA,  it would seem it's trended Democratic over the last 20 years.

It's position relative to the nation as a whole is important. That trend is pretty bloody consistent - it's been reliably more Democratic than the nation as a whole, even when the GOP won it. Long story short if the Democrat wins the national popular vote, they're almost certainly winning PA and they'd likely lost the PV by a decent margin to lose PA. Yes, 2012 was a weird outcome but that doesn't make a trend, yet.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2015, 07:43:25 AM »

Biden being from that region will clearly have a better chance, but no its not. IOWA & Va are gonna be close, but hopefully Biden jumps in and increases Dems chances.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2015, 08:54:56 AM »

When was the last time a republuican won PA? Been a LONG time.....OH, IA, FL, CO, NC all much much more of swing states.

Only was a R wins PA is if they win in a landslide.
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mencken
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2015, 09:43:39 AM »

"Pennsylvania is a blue state" is a self-fulfilling prophecy. McCain and Romney both neglected it until the last minute when they desperately needed an alternative path to 270. If the next Republican nominee targets the state early and invests in getting out likely Republican voters, they would have a good chance of flipping this state. Of course, most posters on here are partisan hacks, with a vested interest in telling Republicans that states such as Pennsylvania with favorable demographics are off limits, and that they should prioritize states like Florida and Virginia with unfavorable demographic trends.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2015, 09:47:32 AM »

And this assertion is one of those mind boggling myths that gets repeated by people who don't know or understand much about the state or rural vs. more complete turnout.
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2015, 10:23:02 AM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

No.

If Pennsylvania was a "true swing state," George W. Bush would have carried it while he won a Republican pickup, by 2.46 percentage points, of the U.S. Popular Vote (with his "re-election") in 2004.

Since after the 1940s, Pennsylvania has had a Democratic tilt in every presidential election. (Meaning, all post-1940s winning Republicans who carried Pennsylvania—Dwight Eisenhower, 1952 and 1956; Richard Nixon, 1972; Ronald Reagan, 1980 and 1984; and George Bush, 1988—carried the state with less percentage-margin support than their national levels.)

In fact, Pennsylvania has been at this longer for the Democrats than Texas has been for the Republicans. (Keep in mind: Richard Nixon didn't carry Texas in his first election of 1968. Back then, Texas was a bellwether state—it had voted for every presidential winner, with exception of a 1968 Nixon, from 1928 to 1988.)

How is all this sitting with you, ExtremeRepublican?
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mencken
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2015, 10:26:32 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 10:30:23 AM by mencken »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

No.

If Pennsylvania was a "true swing state," George W. Bush would have carried it while he won a Republican pickup, by 2.46 percentage points, of the U.S. Popular Vote (with his "re-election") in 2004.

Good to know New Mexico is a swing state and Virginia and North Carolina are still safe red states.

Seriously, do you honestly think the political landscape has not changed in 12 years? Pennsylvania trended Republican in both elections since 2004, despite both nominees writing the state off as a blue state until a few weeks before the election. Polls show reason to believe an early Republican investment in the state would reap rewards.
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: October 08, 2015, 10:42:29 AM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

No.

If Pennsylvania was a "true swing state," George W. Bush would have carried it while he won a Republican pickup, by 2.46 percentage points, of the U.S. Popular Vote (with his "re-election") in 2004.

Good to know New Mexico is a swing state and Virginia and North Carolina are still safe red states.

Seriously, do you honestly think the political landscape has not changed in 12 years? Pennsylvania trended Republican in both elections since 2004, despite both nominees writing the state off as a blue state until a few weeks before the election. Polls show reason to believe an early Republican investment in the state would reap rewards.

That's not the point.

The point is that, for a Republican to win the presidency and carry Pennsylvania in the process, that prevailing Republican isn't going to carry the state above his national percentage margin of support.

And, given the last sixty years (which include realigning and counter-realigning the map), there is no reason to think otherwise. After all, the last time a Republican outperformed his national numbers in Pennsylvania was also the last time a Democrat was elected without carriage of Pennsylvania: 1948. That was losing Republican Thomas Dewey, defeated by incumbent Democrat Harry Truman, with Pennsylvania in his column. And, back then, the Old Confederacy states were with the Democrats—as evidence by the fact that all 16 states which carried for Dewey were outside the Old Confederacy: In addition to Dewey's home state New York, as well as Pennsylvania, he carried Connecticut, Delaware, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Vermont.

I know people are dedicated to sensing trends…but it is pure folly to think that long-established patterns of states' political-party preferences are going to go away in a matter of no more than two elections. (For example: Pennsylvania is not going to vote with margins like Texas, which has had a Republican tilt for an even shorter duration than Pennsylvania has had a Democratic tilt.)
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Nyvin
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« Reply #19 on: October 08, 2015, 10:44:41 AM »

And more of a true swing state than FL or NC.  But, Atlas seems to forget that because of some mythological 'blue wall'.

No.

If Pennsylvania was a "true swing state," George W. Bush would have carried it while he won a Republican pickup, by 2.46 percentage points, of the U.S. Popular Vote (with his "re-election") in 2004.

Good to know New Mexico is a swing state and Virginia and North Carolina are still safe red states.

Seriously, do you honestly think the political landscape has not changed in 12 years? Pennsylvania trended Republican in both elections since 2004, despite both nominees writing the state off as a blue state until a few weeks before the election. Polls show reason to believe an early Republican investment in the state would reap rewards.

The demographics in Pennsylvania don't really favor Republicans.   They don't favor either party that much, since the state is barely growing.

The main change is the population growth in the east and the decline in the west.    That does actually favor the Democrats.
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DS0816
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« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2015, 10:48:44 AM »

"Pennsylvania is a blue state" is a self-fulfilling prophecy. McCain and Romney both neglected it until the last minute when they desperately needed an alternative path to 270. If the next Republican nominee targets the state early and invests in getting out likely Republican voters, they would have a good chance of flipping this state. Of course, most posters on here are partisan hacks, with a vested interest in telling Republicans that states such as Pennsylvania with favorable demographics are off limits, and that they should prioritize states like Florida and Virginia with unfavorable demographic trends.

John McCain was the Republican nominee in a presidential year, 2008, in which his Republican Party was the White House party, and the incumbent Republican president, George W. Bush, was about as popularly appealing as having a sexual disease. No one who follows electoral politics, and the Electoral College, and knowing full well that 2008 was going to flip the White House parties, truly believed that John McCain was going to flip any 2004 Democratic-carried states over to the 2008 Republican column. So, the notion of how much time, from a 2008 John McCain and a 2012 Mitt Romney (who shifted only nine states to the level necessary to win a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote), spent in Pennsylvania as some source of importance…well, that's nonsense.
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« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2015, 10:49:15 AM »

I was talking about PVI.  It amazes me how many people fail to understand the concept of PVI (and also that how the state voted in 1992 is irrelevant now).
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« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2015, 10:56:16 AM »


Cry
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DS0816
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« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2015, 11:02:08 AM »

I was talking about PVI.  It amazes me how many people fail to understand the concept of PVI (and also that how the state voted in 1992 is irrelevant now).

What is "irrelevant" are your thread, your opening post, and any follow-up posts you make which attempt to pedal your "Fun Fact."

It's clear this isn't sitting well with you, ExtremeRepublican.
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2015, 11:50:31 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 12:13:47 PM by Torie »

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