British States

[Polkergeist]

Here is a scenario for the What-If files. I read a book  titled '51st state' by a British author and without using too much imagination you can gather that the book is about the British Isles (including Ireland) becoming part of the US. From memory each of the nations of the UK and Ireland became states of the union.

So how would this play out in a presidential election ?

My automatic response would be that it would push the balance in favour of the Democrats as the UK is more liberal (in the American sense).

But upon closer thought maybe this might not be true. Britain did elect Thatcher after all and while Scotland and Wales are soildly left wing at present they are home to nationalist movement which in the above scenario could be tempted by the small federal govt / states rights argument that many conservatives hold.

As for Ulster and Ireland they may also be attracted by the Religious conservatism of GOP.

So in a question tailormade for the British and Irish members of this board. How would the hypothetical states of England, Scotland, Wales, Ulster and Ireland tend to vote in a hypotetical presdential election ?

[M]

The Celtic parties would remain regional and naional. If Ireland and Ulster do choose major parties, they won't be the same ones.

And the state of England will have like twice the EVs of California. Now that's power!

[Polkergeist]

The Celtic parties would remain regional and naional. If Ireland and Ulster do choose major parties, they won't be the same ones.

And the state of England will have like twice the EVs of California. Now that's power!

From what I know of the Emerald Isle,  I agree with your point about Ulster and Ireland voting for different parties.

[California Dreamer]

I have read 51st state is a good book, I read it when I lived in London a few years back. The premise is that at first the UK pulls out of the E.U and joins NAFTA, then takes the step to join the union. As I remember it added the following states:
Ulster (N. Ireland)
Ireland (who also pulled out fo the E.U. to join)
Wales
Scotland
England

One must remember that the 'center' in UK and Ireland, and all of Europe is left of our center. Certain things in Europe are considered sacred and untouchable:
- no death penalty
- socialized medicine
- state sponsored research

The platform of the US Republican party would be considered an ultra right wing party in Europe...along the lines of some of their nationalist parties.

And with the Labour party currently dominating already, there is no question that the Democratic party would sweep.

[7,052,770]

For incorporation of Britain into the US in my TL, i included 6 states:
Scotland, Northumbria, Merica, Wales, Wessex, and Anglia.  The idea wasn't mine though.  I saw it on a website one time, where a British citizen was proposing them himself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For incorporation of Britain into the US in my TL, i included 6 states:
Scotland, Northumbria, Merica, Wales, Wessex, and Anglia.  The idea wasn't mine though.  I saw it on a website one time, where a British citizen was proposing them himself.

Northumbria=Solid Dem, Wales=Solid Dem, Mercia=lean Dem, Scotland=Solid Dem, Anglia=lean GOP, Wessex=dunno

[JohnFKennedy]

If there was Ulster, Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England.

They would all go either 3rd party or Democrat, Republicans are a lot further right than the Tory party I believe.

[Gustaf]

You're missing 2 points here. The GOP would have NO chance if they kept losing, what, an extra 100 EVs everytime. They would have to realign. Secondly, there's a big difference already between Dems in some parts of the country and Reps in other parts. We would see a return to the old days with large reginal factions. The Rockefeller Republicans would return and be a moderate faction.  

[Polkergeist]

After doing a little research......

What-if 2000 Election with British Isles

Existing 50 states as per OTL.

England : 84 ev
Gore (D): 48.5%
Bush (R): 35.2%
Nader (G): 13%

Wales: 7 ev
Gore (D): 48.9 %
Bush (R): 21 %
Jones (PC): 14.3%
Nader (G): 13.8%

Scotland: 12 ev
Gore (D): 47.2 %
Swinney (SNP): 20.1%
Bush (R): 15.6 %
Nader (G): 12.5%

Ulster: 6 ev
Bush (R): 51.2%
Adams (SF): 21.7%
Gore (D): 17.5%
Nader (G): 7%

Ireland: 8 ev
Gore (D): 46.6 %
Bush (R): 41.6 %
Nader (G): 8.7 %
Adams (SF): 7.4 %


Final result
Gore (D): 376 ev, 48.2%
Bush (R): 276 ev, 45.1%
Nader (G):    0  ev,  4.6 %

I came up with the figures by using the UK 2001 Gen election results. Essentially

GB
Dem: 75% of Lab vote + 90% of LD vote
GOP: Con vote
Grn: UK Grn vote + 25% of Lab vote + 10% of LD Vote

NI
Dem: 75 % of SDLP vote + 50% of NI Alliance vote
GOP: DUP vote + UUP vote + Con vote + UKUP vote
Grn: 25% of SDLP Vote + 50%  NI Alliance vote

And for Ireland I used the results of 2002 parliamentary election and I also changed 5% from GOP to Dem as FF was in Govt whilist GOP was not  :

Dem: Fine Gael + 66% Labour + 66% Progessive Democrats
GOP: Fianna Fáil
Grn: Irish Greens vote + 33% Labour + 33% Progressive Democrats

If anyone can comment on the Irish modle that would be appreciated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After doing a little research......

What-if 2000 Election with British Isles

Existing 50 states as per OTL.

England : 84 ev
Gore (D): 48.5%
Bush (R): 35.2%
Nader (G): 13%

Wales: 7 ev
Gore (D): 48.9 %
Bush (R): 21 %
Jones (PC): 14.3%
Nader (G): 13.8%

Scotland: 12 ev
Gore (D): 47.2 %
Swinney (SNP): 20.1%
Bush (R): 15.6 %
Nader (G): 12.5%

Ulster: 6 ev
Bush (R): 51.2%
Adams (SF): 21.7%
Gore (D): 17.5%
Nader (G): 7%

Ireland: 8 ev
Gore (D): 46.6 %
Bush (R): 41.6 %
Nader (G): 8.7 %
Adams (SF): 7.4 %


Final result
Gore (D): 376 ev, 48.2%
Bush (R): 276 ev, 45.1%
Nader (G):    0  ev,  4.6 %

I came up with the figures by using the UK 2001 Gen election results. Essentially

GB
Dem: 75% of Lab vote + 90% of LD vote
GOP: Con vote
Grn: UK Grn vote + 25% of Lab vote + 10% of LD Vote

NI
Dem: 75 % of SDLP vote + 50% of NI Alliance vote
GOP: DUP vote + UUP vote + Con vote + UKUP vote
Grn: 25% of SDLP Vote + 50%  NI Alliance vote

And for Ireland I used the results of 2002 parliamentary election and I also changed 5% from GOP to Dem as FF was in Govt whilist GOP was not  :

Dem: Fine Gael + 66% Labour + 66% Progessive Democrats
GOP: Fianna Fáil
Grn: Irish Greens vote + 33% Labour + 33% Progressive Democrats

If anyone can comment on the Irish modle that would be appreciated.

Not bad... a few comments:

a) Plaid would be a lobby group (as they were originally) and would not stand a presidential candidate. I'm not sure about the SNP
b) Nader would not win 25% of Labour's vote

[Gustaf]

Well. First off, I'm not sure whether the Greens would do best among Labs, somehow I can't help the suspicion that they might do better among LibDems...

Why would Fine Gael and Fianna Fail be so different? I thought they were basically the same party, different only due to the old Collins-de Valéra conflict from the old days?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's my guess:


Northumbria

Gore: 75%
Bush: 23%
Nader: 2%

Wales

Gore: 72%
Bush: 27%
Nader: 1%

Scotland

Gore: 60%
Bush: 34%
Nader: 6%

Mercia

Gore: 58%
Bush: 40%
Nader: 2%

Anglia

Gore: 48%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 8%

Wessex

Gore: 48%
Bush: 48%
Nader: 4%

NOTE: these are only rough guestimates

[Polkergeist]

Thanks for the feedback:

-Nader and Labour: I figured that about 1/3 to 1/2 of Labour voters would be frustrated about US Dems not being left wing enough for their tastes. Now not all of those voters would change their votes but a large portion would hence there is where I picked the 25% amount.

Now later on this would subside as the shift in the political spectrum kicks in which what Gustaf was talking
about above.

-Nader and Lib Dems: Nader/Greens would pick up some  independant-minded left wing votes that would go to LD in OTL. But I can't see him getting more that a fraction as I always thought LD were a combination of European Liberals and Social Demorcats that thought the Labour party was too left wing. In short centrists.


-Ireland: I read that FF was a conservative Catholic nationalist party, whilist FG was more moderate although Christian Democratic party. Here is the link

http://psephos.adam-carr.net/ireland/statsireland.html

It's a little difficult to pick ireland as the parties don't seem to fall neatly onto a left-right spectrum. But I do think that GOP would do better in Ireland than GB as it is more religous and as a result historically more conservative.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thanks for the feedback:

-Nader and Labour: I figured that about 1/3 to 1/2 of Labour voters would be frustrated about US Dems not being left wing enough for their tastes. Now not all of those voters would change their votes but a large portion would hence there is where I picked the 25% amount.

25% is too high... it might be that high in middle class areas... but most of Labour's support still comes from lower income/working class people...
Nader would poll very badly in Wales and Northumbria (both are coal mining areas), although he would do well in Anglia and Scotland.

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Only 5% of the U.K electorate are die-hard LibDems... but they usually win between 20 and 15%. They vary a lot all over the place...
In Wales most LibDem voters are hill farmers (except Cardiff, where they are studenty types) so I'd guess they'd break towards the Dems... The Liberal/LD strength in the South West is very complex...

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Yeah... that's about right.

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Agreed

[JohnFKennedy]

Lib Dems USED to be the centrist party, they have moved left and Labour have moved right, Lib Dems are now the furthest left of the three big parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lib Dems USED to be the centrist party, they have moved left and Labour have moved right, Lib Dems are now the furthest left of the three big parties.

On SOCIAL issues this is true. But not on Economics.

[Polkergeist]

I was interested in this thread as I was looking to do a TL ala VP Harry on an expanded US taking in what is now termed the Anglosphere (UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, NZ). Apparently an old political rumor had Harold Wilson contemplating the idea in the late 60's with LBJ. In Political reality it is a Non Sequiter. But it makes great Mills and Boon for Psephologists.

Anyway I wasn't too confident about the UK, I can do Australia and NZ would you guys want to add in for the British Isles part ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was interested in this thread as I was looking to do a TL ala VP Harry on an expanded US taking in what is now termed the Anglosphere (UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, NZ). Apparently an old political rumor had Harold Wilson contemplating the idea in the late 60's with LBJ. In Political reality it is a Non Sequiter. But it makes great Mills and Boon for Psephologists.

Anyway I wasn't too confident about the UK, I can do Australia and NZ would you guys want to add in for the British Isles part ?

Sure

[Polkergeist]

Thanks Al

I'll have it starting about 1968. However I'll start it in a new thread in the next few days. I'll do the story line and every election you can come in with the results from the British Isles.  Also I'll try to get some maps done, so let me know how you want the UK and Ireland split up fo this TL.

BTW if we could find a Canadian to do those results that would be super.

[JohnFKennedy]

hmm, I dunno if Harold Wilson would have done that, he refused to support USA on Vietnam.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

hmm, I dunno if Harold Wilson would have done that, he refused to support USA on Vietnam.

Officially

[JohnFKennedy]

he refused to even send a marching band in lol. He didn't want to be seen to be supporting it at all.

[Gustaf]

hmm, I dunno if Harold Wilson would have done that, he refused to support USA on Vietnam.

Officially

So did the Swedish PM. Officially.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

he refused to even send a marching band in lol. He didn't want to be seen to be supporting it at all.

He was worried about a backlash

[JohnFKennedy]

ah, ok.