Portugal Legislative Elections, 10/04/2015

[BundouYMB]

38/230 seats elected. 24 for PSD+CDS, 14 for PS.

[jaichind]

Why is Madeira reporting seperately for PPD/PSD?  I assume the alliance does not hold outside the mainland ?

[Hans-im-Glück]

Why is Madeira reporting seperately for PPD/PSD?  I assume the alliance does not hold outside the mainland ?

In madeira and the azores have the PSD and the CDS no common list, don't ask me why

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

38/230 seats elected. 24 for PSD+CDS, 14 for PS.

Now its 25 for coalition and 15 for PS.
That sounds good.

[PetrSokol]

How could be already some MP´s for for example Lisboa awarded? Are there some constiuncies separated?

[jaichind]

I suspect the tide will turn against the PPD/PSD.CDS-PP once more results from Lisbon and Porto comes in.  Both in terms of vote share and seats since the seats available there will ensure that parties like CDU and Left Bloc will get seats.

[Zanas]

How could be already some MP´s for for example Lisboa awarded? Are there some constiuncies separated?

In PR in a constituency, once you reach the quota, you have one seat.

[BundouYMB]

51/230 seats elected. 30 for PSD+CDS, 20 for PS, 1 for BE.

PSD+CDS has dropped below 40% btw. Currently has 39.60%.

[jaichind]

51/230 seats elected. 30 for PSD+CDS, 20 for PS, 1 for BE.

PSD+CDS has dropped below 40% btw. Currently has 39.60%.

Not really, PPD/PSD running by itself is at 2% and CDS-PP running by itself is at around .3% so the total of PSD+CDS is still above 40%. 

[BundouYMB]

64/230 seats are now elected. 35 for PSD+CDS, 26 for PS, 2 for BE, 1 for CDU.

[jaichind]

It seems less and less likely that Portugal Ahead will win an absolute majority. Oh well.  I was excited for a while after the exit polls came out that perhaps they could win an absolute majority.

[Zanas]

If 2011 results are any indication, BE should end up at around 9.8%, CDU at around 8.3%, PS at around 31.4%.

[DavidB.]

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

[BundouYMB]

77/230 seats elected. 43 for PSD+CDS, 29 for PS, 3 for BE, 2 for CDU.

[Zanas]

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

No way. This will more probably result in a minority right-wing government, with just the support they'll need to pass bills from a few PS MPs.

[Hans-im-Glück]

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

I don't see a PS-BE-CDU government. The differences between the parties are to big. Maybe we will see a PSD minority gov. or a PSD-PS government, but this would be a surprise.

[Hydera]

So if a plurality PSD/CDS government gets blocked by PS and the other left wing parties i assume there will be another election?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are the primary policies or big ticket manifesto items the parties want?

[BundouYMB]

105/230 seats elected. 55 for PSD+CDS, 40 for PS, 5 for BE, 5 for CDU.

[DavidB.]

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

No way. This will more probably result in a minority right-wing government, with just the support they'll need to pass bills from a few PS MPs.

So this will likely lead to a PS govt with explicit outside support from BE and tacit Communist support, if the right doesn't win a majority?

I don't see a PS-BE-CDU government. The differences between the parties are to big. Maybe we will see a PSD minority gov. or a PSD-PS government, but this would be a surprise.

Okay, thanks for clearing that up

[Hans-im-Glück]

What are the primary policies or big ticket manifesto items the parties want?

Psd/cds - We make all what the troika and EU wants from us

PS - We want to do all what the troika and EU wants from us, but there is a limit what we can expect from our people.

CDU - Enough is enough. fick the EU

BE -  the CDU is to liberal against the EU

[jaichind]

Portugal Ahead will most likely win just less than 40% of the vote and around 110 seats in my view.

[Hans-im-Glück]

The result of my hometown Silves; district Faro

2015:

PS
Partido Socialista
30,01%
1.495 votos
   
PPD/PSD.CDS-PP
Portugal à Frente
24,41%
1.216 votos
   
PCP-PEV
CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária
16,92%
843 votos
   
B.E.
Bloco de Esquerda
14,82%
738 votos
   
PCTP/MRPP
Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses
2,25%
112 votos
   
MPT
Partido da Terra
1,81%
90 votos
   
PAN
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
1,35%
67 votos
   
PDR
Partido Democrático Republicano
1,18%
59 votos
   
L/TDA
LIVRE/Tempo de Avançar
0,88%
44 votos
   
PNR
Partido Nacional Renovador
0,78%
39 votos
   
NC
Nós, Cidadãos!
0,64%
32 votos
   
PPM
Partido Popular Monárquico
0,44%
22 votos
   
PURP
Partido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas
0,38%
19 votos
   
PTP-MAS
Agir
0,32%
16 votos
   
   
   
EM BRANCO
2,31%
115 votos
NULOS
1,49%
74 votos
   
2011:

PPD/PSD
Partido Social Democrata
29,03%
1.528 votos
   
PS
Partido Socialista
21,11%
1.111 votos
   
PCP-PEV
CDU - Coligação Democrática Unitária
16,70%
879 votos
   
CDS-PP
CDS - Partido Popular
11,25%
592 votos
   
B.E.
Bloco de Esquerda
9,39%
494 votos
   
PCTP/MRPP
Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses
2,11%
111 votos
   
PAN
Pessoas-Animais-Natureza
1,71%
90 votos
   
MPT
Partido da Terra
1,24%
65 votos
   
PNR
Partido Nacional Renovador
0,74%
39 votos
   
MEP
MEP
0,61%
32 votos
   
PPV
PPV
0,40%
21 votos
   
PPM
Partido Popular Monárquico
0,27%
14 votos
   
POUS
POUS
0,17%
9 votos
   
EM BRANCO
3,76%
198 votos
NULOS
1,52%
80 votos
   

[BundouYMB]

140/230 seats elected. 70 for PSD+CDS, 52 for PS, 9 for BE, 9 for CDU.

[BundouYMB]

BE is now over 10% and CDU is over their 2011 result.