Is diesel doomed?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, the Volkswagen affair continues to drag down that company's stocks, and it begins to look very, very serious for VW. I presume the corporate execs will be fined a little, and the blameless workers get the crap dropped on them; but this scandal seems bigger than one company. Is it the end of the road for diesel? Diesel, although basically a niche in America, is very popular in Europe helped by generous subsidies throughout the continent (helped by generous lobbying from companies like, erm, VW) - efficient and supposedly low carbon, they quickly became more and more ubiquitous on the roads. But even before the scandal, local governments, greens and their allies and urbanites began to rebel against the dirty fuel. Quickly, the car companies of Germany rushed to lobby the EU, national governments and local municipalities to drop or limit plans to limit or even ban diesels. They also began to pour money into an international effort to normalise the fuel, even as American and Japanese automakers began to invest in alternative low carbon cars (including that forever dream, the electric car). And now ... the technology that the Germans had put all their faith in is being trashed, the richest pro-diesel company will have to shed a huge amount of capital in fines, lawsuits, recalls and lost sales and diesel has never looked weaker.

What do you guys think?

[DavidB.]

The European transport sector is so dependent on diesel that I cannot see an enormous transition taking place soon. It is likely that fewer people will be driving on diesel in 2050, so in that sense diesel is certainly doomed, but I don't expect a sudden significant change, since that would simply be too costly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well, I think the diesel boom amongst passenger cars was largely government created tbh. As governments worldwide are dumping direct subsidies for fossil fuels, I think diesel will be squeezed in between dependable old petrol and the sudden rush of cheaper electrics/hybrids that look set to be released in the latter half of this decade. I think diesel will remain a fuel for large vehicles - trucks etc. (although I think public transport will worm itself off the fuel) - but I can't see much of a future for the "clean" diesel automobile, especially if planned bans come in effect in London, Paris etc. This is the perfect time for anti-diesel people to swoop, as the big boy of the fuel is distracted and humiliated and other players are keeping their heads low.

[Untergang des Abendlandes]

Diesel will rise again.