You guys are forgetting this is 1996 not 1988, when Clinton was very popular and with the US in a time of period of peace and prosperity , it would be nearly impossible to defeat Clinton. Also Reagan would be 85 in 1996 and there would be massive questions if he could handle another 4 years.
Here's the map
Clinton 291
Reagan 247
Now if it's 1988 Reagan wins big
Reagan 381
Clinton 157
Even in 1992(If Bush stepped down like Bush JR said he would) I would see maybe Reagan winning as Perot wouldnt have that much of an impact
Reagan 302
Clinton 236