2015-16 Winter Outlook from the Weather Channel (and Accuweather)

[Frodo]

Winter 2015-16 Outlook: Colder South and East Coast, Warmer North

Published Sep 18 2015 09:12 AM EDT

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[Ban my account ffs!]

I think they are too generous with the cold.  If the El Nino holds up as one of the strongest on record, it will likely mean very few areas of below normal temperatures.  Maybe the deep south or Texas will see slightly below average temperatures... but the north will be "blow torched" as Arctic air stays on the other side of the Arctic in northern Eurasia.

Still, if you were booking a ski vacation this winter... New Mexico, southern Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe and points south would be your best bet.

I'd still say the Cascades will have a better year than last year.. but that's not saying much at all.

[Frodo]

I think they are too generous with the cold.  If the El Nino holds up as one of the strongest on record, it will likely mean very few areas of below normal temperatures.  Maybe the deep south or Texas will see slightly below average temperatures... but the north will be "blow torched" as Arctic air stays on the other side of the Arctic in northern Eurasia.

Still, if you were booking a ski vacation this winter... New Mexico, southern Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe and points south would be your best bet.

I'd still say the Cascades will have a better year than last year.. but that's not saying much at all.

With the PDO momentarily in a positive phase, and the AMO trending negative, don't you think that would change things a bit from where we were the last time we had an El Nino of this strength and caliber (1997-98)?

[Tender Branson]

Brrr ... winter is coming.

It has just 3°C (35°F) here right now and above 1000m altitude it's snowing already.

The mountains will see 50cm (1-2 feet) of snow this night.

If the bad weather moves to the East though, we'll get epic pictures of snow-capped mountains later this weekend.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think they are too generous with the cold.  If the El Nino holds up as one of the strongest on record, it will likely mean very few areas of below normal temperatures.  Maybe the deep south or Texas will see slightly below average temperatures... but the north will be "blow torched" as Arctic air stays on the other side of the Arctic in northern Eurasia.

Still, if you were booking a ski vacation this winter... New Mexico, southern Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe and points south would be your best bet.

I'd still say the Cascades will have a better year than last year.. but that's not saying much at all.

With the PDO momentarily in a positive phase, and the AMO trending negative, don't you think that would change things a bit from where we were the last time we had an El Nino of this strength and caliber (1997-98)?

I think you're probably right that things are different enough from 1997/98 that I shouldn't, at the very least, make any bold predictions.

Joe Bastardi and his team keep bringing up 1957/58 as a good analog.  That would fit in better with your concerns as well since that period was a positive PDO period in the midst of a longer term negative PDO 'regime' and at the end of a positive AMO phase.

The winter of 1957/58 was a classic El Nino pattern for the U.S.  Almost like you took the average El Nino impacts and just dialed them up.  Whereas 1982/83 and 1997/98 were very wet in many places and very dry almost nowhere... 1957/58 was very wet across the southern half of the nation and very dry in the north.  It was Minneapolis' least snowy winter on record with like 25" of snow I believe all winter.

That winter the storm track really nailed California as storms came ashore in northern California and brought plenty of precip to the west south of the California/Oregon line.  It was also wet in the southern plains and along the southeast and mid Atlantic coast with dryness pronounced especially in the northern plains and Great Lakes.

The winter was cold across the southeast and cooler than normal in the southwest... but milder than normal in the north.  I'd expect this winter to be warmer overall because the planet is warmer... but the pattern might be similar.

How it affects the Atlantic is anybody's guess.  Most recent El Ninos seem to warm the Atlantic ocean.  This was especially apparent in 1998 as the El Nino faded away.. the Atlantic warmed up pretty substantially and hasn't cooled since.

But the 1957/58 had the opposite affect which actually caused a significant drop in average temperature for areas of the southeastern U.S. into what some called the "Great Southern Ice Age" which lasted until the 80s in some places.  Only since 1998 had the deep south once again achieved pre 1958 temps.

Either way... again... this is a good year to watch the weather.  Because it'll be anything but average.

[Frodo]

And here is Accuweather's put on this coming winter -don't forget to click the image for the article:



The highlights: the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic gets off relatively easy, and California can finally get some real relief from their drought.

[Frodo]

Europe Winter Forecast: Harsh Cold to Bypass London and Paris; Storms to Frequent Southern France to Italy and Alps

[exopolitician]

And here is Accuweather's put on this coming winter -don't forget to click the image for the article:



The highlights: the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic gets off relatively easy, and California can finally get some real relief from their drought.

"Not as brutal"

Well, okay...

[Frodo]

For those hoping for a (relatively) mild El Nino winter here in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, this might complicate your plans:

Record Siberian snow could bode ill for Northeast

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm expecting bad weather here in Florida for the winter, all the meteorologists here are at least predicting more than usual severe storms.

[Tender Branson]

The weather here in the past 3-4 weeks has been really great:

Not a single drop of rain and 95% of all days were sunny with almost no clouds.

The last few days even had 15-20°C ...

And it is projected to be mild and sunny for the next week too.

Virtually one of the best falls ever.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The El Nino pattern is beginning to make itself known as more storms impact the western U.S.  So far they have avoided coastal southern California but have left rain in the Bay Area and points north along with some decent snow totals in the Sierra Nevada.  Recently, snow has been widespread across Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Idaho, and Montana.

The upcoming pattern is a bit uncertain since the models aren't quite sure where the trough will end up.. but it appears a deep trough will move into the west and central part of the U.S.  The latest run shows the deepest part of the trough in the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle/SW Kansas region.. which is very unusual.

Storms would come ashore in British Columbia before diving south towards the Four Corners before pinwheeling around and moving NE basically straight towards the Great Lakes.  If there's enough cold air, it would spell lots of snow for the plains and western areas of the Midwest.  But warmth in the east.  It would also mean lots of snow and cold for the mountains of the four corners states.

Earlier runs have the trough further west focusing storms across the Southwest, but including California.

The weather will be interesting in the coming weeks for the U.S.  The latest run shows a deep trough extending from Greenland all the way to central Europe which would mean lots of storminess in France just in time for the climate talks with potential snow for NW Europe.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't want interesting weather, I just want a chance to dry out. We had twice our average September rainfall, almost five times the average in October, and we've already had more rain in the first ten days of November than in an average entire November.

[Frodo]

Storms would come ashore in British Columbia before diving south towards the Four Corners before pinwheeling around and moving NE basically straight towards the Great Lakes.  If there's enough cold air, it would spell lots of snow for the plains and western areas of the Midwest.  But warmth in the east.  It would also mean lots of snow and cold for the mountains of the four corners states.

I'm glad you added the qualifier 'uncertain' earlier, since our local meteorologists are predicting that we will have a warm December, a slightly cooler than normal January, and well-below normal February, with a good chance for one monster blizzard to hit our region if the cold and moisture come together at the right time, resulting in above normal snowfall.  



This is an image from another website I look at occasionally, and it isn't too far off from what the professionals are predicting IMHO.

[DemPGH]

We could really use a break after last winter, which was one of the worst in a long time, and so far so good. It's been a very pleasant autumn so far with a lot of really mild days. Let's hope that continues!

[Mr. Illini]

I may be the only one, but I am disappointed in the seeming consensus that the Great Lakes will be getting a mild winter.

I wouldn't live here if I wanted warm winters.

[Tender Branson]

Today, some places in the east of the country even had 25°C (in mid-November !).

For the past 4 weeks no rain and there was even a forest fire in my district yesterday because it's really dry.

Some rain or snow would be awesome ...

[Ban my account ffs!]

Currently a powerful storm is spinning up across the center of the country (right over Iowa).  WIth it will be winds up to 60mph for a broad swath from Chicago to Cleveland right along the I-80 corridor and also in Detroit.

Out ahead are severe thunderstorms and on the back side, snow has developed with snow falling across much of Nebraska today and now in western Iowa.

It is impressive on the satellite imagery with a stream of clouds visible being pulled southwestward from Labrador and a stream of clouds being pulled northeastward all the way from the tropical Pacific.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

The Farmer's Almanac predicts that Michigan will be "Snow-filled and frigid."  I guess we'll see which one is right.  I'm always dreaming of a white Christmas, so my fingers are crossed.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The outlook for the coming days by the models a week ago wasn't far off.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/windswept-snow-to-return-to-de/53625244

A significant blizzard will develop from the front range and Denver to far western Kansas and SW Nebraska will develop.  Ahead of the storm will be heavy rain and severe weather.  Meanwhile, the west has been getting lots of snow.  California ski areas opened early and many others will open this weekend to good snow bases.

[Frodo]

Is it looking like this El Nino is stronger than the Super El Nino we had in 1997-98?

[Ban my account ffs!]

Is it looking like this El Nino is stronger than the Super El Nino we had in 1997-98?

Not yet.  The dynamics are different too.  The warmest water is staying further west rather than hugging South America.  But right now the niño 3.4 region is 3°C above normal, tying the warmest of 1997/98.  But 98 was stronger in the atmosphere.

Interestingly cold water is beginning to develop in the western Pacific and well up under the warm "cap".  This will eventually kill the el niño and probably bring la niña next year.

[Ban my account ffs!]

So here's the deal with all the hype about this being the strongest El Nino ever.

It actually isn't.  It's just that the rather limiting way we measure El Nino events shows this to be stronger, when in fact the ways in which the 1997/98 event was actually stronger were in ways that mean more to overall weather disruption.

So while this one is officially stronger... it might not disrupt weather patterns as much.

El Nino and La Nina are measured by looking at sea surface temperatures in the blocked sections pictured below:



To summarize... those are regions 1, 2, 3, and 4. 

But what scientists have found after many El Nino events is that a region comprising mostly of region 3 but also part of region 4 capture the events better.  So they adopted a region called Nino region 3.4.

This region is best at capturing El Nino events in general but is not best at capturing the strongest events, which focus the most relative heat in regions 1, 2, and the eastern part of 3.

The 1997/98 was such an example.  The normal warm water pool of the western Pacific shifted all the way to South America.

This year the strongest warmth has only really made it about half way to 2/3 of the way across the ocean... centered right on the Nino 3.4 region.

[Mr. Illini]

First Flakes expected this Saturday, and a big one at that. Up to a foot in Chicago.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Yeah i've been watching that.  Snowstorms and thunderstorms are my favorite.