175
169
101
93
2004:
Jerry Brown(D-CA)/Evan Bayh(D-IN) - 175
John Kerry(D-MA)/Janet Napolitano(D-AZ) - 169
Howard Dean(D-VT)/Jon Corzine(D-NJ) - 101
John Edwards(D-NC)/Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 93
Howard Dean tossed his backing behind Brown, and most of his supporters followed through. Michigan and Minnesota attempted a Corzine-Gephardt joint draft, but that fell through quickly. Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, the four main backers of this compromise, proceeded to convince Kerry's delegates from Ohio and Pennsylvania to join.
Jerry Brown(D-CA)/Evan Bayh(D-IN) - 294
John Kerry(D-MA)/Joe Manchin(D-WV) - 144
John Edwards(D-NC)/Bill Campbell(D-GA) - 93
Howard Dean(D-VT)/Angus King(D-ME) - 7
General Election:
273: Jerry Brown(D-CA)/Evan Bayh(D-IN)
265: George W. Bush(R-TX)/Dick Cheney(D-WY)
Dean either runs for Governor or Senator in 2006, becoming a front runner for 2012, or joins the Brown administration. Brown supports him either way, presumably because that was the deal they made. Brown is old enough so that he needs someone under fifty or younger. That said, I suspect these would be likely opponents in 2008:
Gov. John Bolton of Maryland
Gov. George Pataki of New York
Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio
Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania
Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska
Sen. John McCain of Arizona
Former Mayor Rudy Guiliani of New York
Rep. Ron Paul of Texas
In the end, perhaps a McCain/Guiliani seems likely. If not, a Murkowski/Pawlenty ticket would be strong. The only way the "Tea Party" wins is if one of Paul, Santorum, Huckabee, or, and perhaps most likely, Gingrich wins in 2008. Newt Gingrich(R-GA)/Ben Quayle(R-AZ) would probably get ~320 EVs if the recession happens on the same scale. If Brown moves more towards a balanced budget without cutting too much, mostly reforming, I could see a Gingrich-Quayle v. Brown-Bayh election being close if the economy is about late 2006-July 2007 levels.
