FL-PPP: Clinton trails everybody but Cruz/Huckabee

[JRP1994]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/09/florida-down-on-bush-rubio-campaigns.html

"The general election numbers in Florida are generally good for the GOP. The strongest Republican in the state is Carson, who leads Clinton 49/40 and Sanders 48/33. Carson easily has the best net favorability rating with the overall electorate- +20 at 45/25. The second strongest polling Republican is actually Trump who leads her by 6 at 48/42 and who has a similar 47/41 lead over Sanders. Biden polls a tick closer to Trump, trailing by 4 at 47/43. Also leading Clinton by decent sized margins are Fiorina (46/41) and Rubio (48/43). Fiorina (37/31) and Rubio (44/43) join Carson in having positive favorabilities with the full voter pool.

The other general election match ups with Clinton are close. She trails Jeb Bush 45/42, with Biden and Sanders down by similar margins as well. Bush's not polling as well against the Democrats as some of the other Republican candidates is a reflection of his overall unpopularity in the state- only 36% of voters see him positively to 52% who have a negative opinion. Clinton is down 44/41 to Kasich and 45/43 to Walker. The two Republicans who trail Clinton in Florida are Cruz and Huckabee, both at 45/43."

[Mr. Morden]

Reading it in paragraph form like that makes my eyes bleed (like Megyn Kelly?).  Here:

Bush 45%
Clinton 42%

Bush 45%
Biden 42%

Bush 45%
Sanders 41%

Clinton 39%
Bush 29%
Trump 27%

Carson 49%
Clinton 40%

Carson 48%
Sanders 33%

Clinton 45%
Cruz 43%

Fiorina 46%
Clinton 41%

Fiorina 44%
Sanders 37%

Clinton 45%
Huckabee 43%

Kasich 44%
Clinton 41%

Rubio 48%
Clinton 43%

Trump 48%
Clinton 42%

Trump 47%
Biden 43%

Trump 47%
Sanders 41%

Walker 45%
Clinton 43%

Walker 42%
Sanders 40%

[Skye]

EDIT: Damn, beaten.

Anyway, poor numbers for the Democrats. This leads me to question that MSNBC poll.

#runbidenrun

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among all voters:

Carson 45/25% for +20%
Fiorina 37/31% for +6%
Biden 45/41% for +4%
Rubio 44/43% for +1%
Kasich 27/29% for -2%
Cruz 34/41% for -7%
Walker 29/36% for -7%
Trump 40/51% for -11%
Clinton 40/53% for -13%
Bush 36/52% for -16% (lol)
Huckabee 31/47% for -16%
Sanders 28/44% for -16%
Christie 29/53% for -24%
Paul 22/51% for -29%

Yes, Bush is 16 points underwater on favorability in his home state.  And both Bush and Clinton have worse favorable #s here than Trump.

[mds32]

Is Carson replacing Walker for the top 3 GOP?

[Ljube]

This is expected. Trump's favorables are very good compared to Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is expected. Trump's favorables are very good compared to Clinton.

Trump favs are better than Clinton. Clinton doesnt need Fl in order to win. She can win with CO. And the Telemundo poll shows Trump in trouble with Latinos, CO and NV and Pa should give Dems the election.Which  fits in with that ABC poll of 46/43 for Clinton.

[MT Treasurer]

The GOP should be terrified of Clinton's strength in FL. Bush or Rubio have to be on the ticket.

In my opinion, Florida will be a perfect bellwether in 2016 without Hillary on the ballot. With Hillary however, it will be lean Dem. In 2020 however, it will surely be a lean Dem already.

I've long been saying that Florida will be one of the biggest movers in Democratic direction in the whole 2016 season, and this semi-released poll just confirms that picture. Floridians now have a progressive view on almost every social issue out there, from minimum wage increase to banning weapons in cinema theatres, including the most recent shift on attitudes towards gay marriage (despite it being one of the US states with the oldest population), which just enhance this view of a serious and solid upcoming Democratic penetration. Almost the only issue Republicans can play on in Florida right now is the Affordable Care Act, and even towards that issue, the supporters appear twice as strong as in the nation as a whole. The opponents are only leading by 9% in Florida, while they're leading by about 18% nationwide. So unless GOP succeeds with turning the 2016 election into a referendum on ACA, a strategy they're extremely unlikely to succeed with (I'd say the likelihood of that is less than 1%), then most Republican candidates are bound to lose in Florida in 2016.

Other states that will move significantly in 2016 will be Arizona and Texas. California will of course continue its Democratic trendline, as will probably (although not surely) Virginia and North Carolina. Also, almost the entire South, including Missouri (but possibly (probably?) without West Virginia) will trend Democratic. Some states will undoubtedly trend Republican, most prominently the two Dakotas.

What makes Clinton such a good fit for Florida?

Her age. She's even older than the average age of a Floridian adult.

Image if our magnificent and all powerful All Mighty God designed a state that was demographically perfect for Clinton. Florida is that state. She will run up the numbers here and send the Republicans packing before their convention has even ended.

link

Clinton 54, Christie 33
Clinton 53, Paul 37
Clinton 49, Bush 42
Clinton 53, Rubio 39
Clinton 51, Ryan 38

Florida is a lean Dem state, the only reason why it was close in 2012 was due to the cutbacks in early voting and the ridiculously long lines on Election Day. In 2016 the demographics will be even more Dem friendly more blacks, Latinos, and less whites 65+. Simple math!

[Tender Branson]

Carson is having some impressive numbers recently.

I wonder if he'll get HermanCain'ed soon or if he's the dark horse that will give Trump a run for the money.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson is having some impressive numbers recently.

I wonder if he'll get HermanCain'ed soon or if he's the dark horse that will give Trump a run for the money.

You mean a Blaxican horse? 

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Carson does especially well with white voters in this poll.  He beats Clinton 60%-29% among whites, which is a bigger margin than any of the other Republicans puts up against her.

[Tender Branson]

Carson is having some impressive numbers recently.

I wonder if he'll get HermanCain'ed soon or if he's the dark horse that will give Trump a run for the money.

You mean a Blaxican horse?  

No, Carson is just dark.

Blaxican is a term I invented for 2016, to refer to Blacks/Latinos - a group which Sanders needs to attract.

Anyway: If the abortion story did not bring him down, what else would ? He's really teflon so far and his numbers even went up despite the abortion story. The other candidates might try to attack him with this later once more, so we'll see ... but it looks like Carson might actually do really well at least in the early states.

[Skye]

Btw, Carson does especially well with white voters in this poll.  He beats Clinton 60%-29% among whites, which is a bigger margin than any of the other Republicans puts up against her.

Wanna know something strange? Bush actually leads with women against Clinton. He is tied with her among men. Also Fiorina gets 41% of the Hispanic vote against Clinton.

[Ljube]

Btw, Carson does especially well with white voters in this poll.  He beats Clinton 60%-29% among whites, which is a bigger margin than any of the other Republicans puts up against her.

Wanna know something strange? Bush actually leads with women against Clinton. He is tied with her among men. Also Fiorina gets 41% of the Hispanic vote against Clinton.

That's because ¡Jeb! gets 100% of latino women.

[Bull Moose Base]

Carson is having some impressive numbers recently.

I wonder if he'll get HermanCain'ed soon or if he's the dark horse that will give Trump a run for the money.

You mean a Blaxican horse?  

No, Carson is just dark.

Blaxican is a term I invented for 2016, to refer to Blacks/Latinos - a group which Sanders needs to attract.

Anyway: If the abortion story did not bring him down, what else would ? He's really teflon so far and his numbers even went up despite the abortion story. The other candidates might try to attack him with this later once more, so we'll see ... but it looks like Carson might actually do really well at least in the early states.

I'm assuming besides Trump, Walker, Huckabee, Cruz, Rubio, Paul and Fiorina all are considering hitting Carson on abortion and fetal tissue research tomorrow. He's in their way.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think it's safe to move Florida to Lean R at this point.

[Ljube]

I think it's safe to move Florida to Lean R at this point.

I wouldn't do that just yet, but it's safe to say that Florida isn't Hillary's strongest swing state.

Let me remind you of the Obama-Clinton debate in 2008. The debate was about who was more electable. Hillary claimed that she was, because she could win Ohio. Obama claimed that he was, because he could expand the map.

It turned out that Obama expanded the map just for himself and it seems, with Clinton as the nominee, we're back to Bush vs Gore and Bush vs Kerry maps, where Democrats struggle to win both Colorado and Iowa (and Florida).

[Ljube]

However, even with Florida, Colorado and Iowa won, Republicans still need both Ohio and Virginia, or Ohio and New Hampshire. That's a tall order.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

However, even with Florida, Colorado and Iowa won, Republicans still need both Ohio and Virginia, or Ohio and New Hampshire. That's a tall order.

I think that the GOP winds up with a huge popular vote win, so we don't have to worry about individual states so much.  But, if it is close, here is what I see:

GOP Pickups:
Florida (235)
Ohio (253)
Iowa (259)
Colorado (268)

Tossups (GOP needs 1 of these 2):
Pennsylvania
Virginia

[Maxwell]

Jebby has worse favorable ratings in his own home state than Mr. Doom and Gloom Ted Cruz. My god.

[pbrower2a]

With these numbers, the Republicans pick up the two contested seats that Democrats now hold (CO, NV) and might lose nothing. I see the Republicans picking up states that they have not lost after 1988 -- maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, and Pennsylvania. Republicans will not have enough House or Senate seats to force Constitutional change on their own... but that will be the sole solace for Democrats, unless it is something like "Gee, I never thought that I would like Slovenia this much".  

Of course this could imply nothing more than the political collapse of Hillary Clinton, who has not handled the e-mail controversy well.

[HillOfANight]

However, even with Florida, Colorado and Iowa won, Republicans still need both Ohio and Virginia, or Ohio and New Hampshire. That's a tall order.

It's a bit premature to write off Florida for her when she's been leading most polls until now. And don't forget that Nevada is slipping away from the GOP in addition to Virginia.

Also, important to note he has relatively strong approval numbers here (48% approve, 49% disapprove). I really doubt that 17% of Obama 2012 voters are going to cross over for Trump.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

PPP has been one of the most Republican pollsters lately, despite being hired by Democrats.

[HillOfANight]

In Florida, Kerry got 42% of whites in 2004, Obama got 42% in 2008, and 37% in 2012.

In this poll, she only gets 33% against vs Bush, 29% vs Carson, 34% vs Rubio, 31% vs Bush.

This just seems very implausible, along with the 19% of African Americans voting for Scott Walker among other things.

[Ljube]

In Florida, Kerry got 42% of whites in 2004, Obama got 42% in 2008, and 37% in 2012.

In this poll, she only gets 33% against vs Bush, 29% vs Carson, 34% vs Rubio, 31% vs Bush.

This just seems very implausible.

Actually, I think it is very plausible. Florida whites are more Republican leaning and they don't like Hillary. I expected her to perform worse than Obama with all demographics, especially whites.