Australia General Discussion 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I can actually see a plausible situation with Xenophon being the next premier. In my eyes if SA Best get 10+ seats, and are holding the balance of power then his main concession might be him being Premier, particularly if Labor and the Liberals are near tied, so parliament is something like LAB 18, LIB 18, SA BEST 11, then Xenophon is making up about 3/8ths of the government him leading wouldn't be out of the question. Of course I think that if the three parties are near tied in seats (16-16-15ish) then I think that Xenophon would almost certainly be premier.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Wierd, if I was South Australian, I would preference both Labor and Liberals before Xenophon. He's a phony populist who bans to ban everything.

I think you mean plans to ban, not bans to ban.
Anyway, Xenophon's main tenet isn't banning stuff, bar Pokies (which really wouldn't be too bad given the societal problems they cause), but rather his main policy is SA First!, that's why his party is called SA Best. He's a populist, just like almost every successful SA premier. If you want an idea of what the model SA premier is then I would suggest that some reading on Thomas Playford IV would be a beneficial undertaking, given he ruled SA for 27 years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Playford_IV

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think that I should emphasise this point. SA is a deeply populist state, and Xenophon has spent years tailoring his image to fit perfectly for South Australia. SA is a state with a giant chip on its shoulder. They are the Manufacturing state, and Australian manufacturing has but disappeared over the last 20 years, and SA of course has been the far worst hit. The only thing going for them is the Barossa Valley (Wine, Wine and more Wine, it's the only thing now going for them, and likewise the stereotype of a South Australian has evolved from just a Working Class Bogan to a Working Class Bogan Wine Snob.).
Xenophon is just about perfect for SA, and that's why they love him so much.
For Americans I would put it like this; South Australia is Australia's Rust Belt (just with more wine.) Just like the rust belt SA is very receptive to populism, (though they have a far longer experience of it than the Rust Belt)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I think that I should emphasise this point. SA is a deeply populist state, and Xenophon has spent years tailoring his image to fit perfectly for South Australia. SA is a state with a giant chip on its shoulder. They are the Manufacturing state, and Australian manufacturing has but disappeared over the last 20 years, and SA of course has been the far worst hit. The only thing going for them is the Barossa Valley (Wine, Wine and more Wine, it's the only thing now going for them, and likewise the stereotype of a South Australian has evolved from just a Working Class Bogan to a Working Class Bogan Wine Snob.).
Xenophon is just about perfect for SA, and that's why they love him so much.
For Americans I would put it like this; South Australia is Australia's Rust Belt (just with more wine.) Just like the rust belt SA is very receptive to populism, (though they have a far longer experience of it than the Rust Belt)

To simplify for Americans, SA is the Rust Belt plus Vineyards.

[IceAgeComing]

This strikes me as being an election that's hard to poll: as is usually the case when you have insurgent parties rising from almost nowhere.  Add in the fact that their infrastructure will be worse than the majors and how rigid Australia's two-party system is and you get to a point where I think that Xenophon will dissapoint: he'll get seats but not that many.  Although with an unpopular Liberal federal government and an ALP government that's been there for years and which has lost the TPP vote to the Liberals in the last two elections; this is the time where a third party should do well if one is ever going to do well.

A 30/30/30 election will prove ungovernable long term though; the lower house will be... odd and the Upper House; when you add in the seats that the Greens, the Shooters and (possibly) One Nation will win and considering that it uses PR that will just be a total mess and whoever is in government will need some kind of formal arrangement with someone.  That's the issue that Xenophon has: their party hasn't got the firm base that the LNP or the ALP have: which means that if they lean towards one side they'll annoy the other - especially if they end up being the junior partner since global trends suggest that Junior partners in coalitions or other arrangements tend to explode and lose significant support in the election after - look at the Lib Dems in the UK since 2010, or the PvdA in the Netherlands recently - and the two of them are established parties and not new populist forces with odd coalitions.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Apparatus the Best plan is to run in only 20 electorates at the moment, although that may change.

[IceAgeComing]

If their private polling is anything like that you'd have to think that it will.  Although finding a full slate of candidates (including for the LC where they'll need to stand a full slate to avoid getting more votes than they have candidates standing) while avoiding bad or... dodgy candidates for a new party is always incredibly hard and they don't want to be embarrassed.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Apparatus the Best plan is to run in only 20 electorates at the moment, although that may change.

Knowing Xenophon it'll change. To me it is almost unconceivable, especially with polling showing a 3-way tie, that he will not run candidates in nigh on every electorate.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This strikes me as being an election that's hard to poll: as is usually the case when you have insurgent parties rising from almost nowhere.  Add in the fact that their infrastructure will be worse than the majors and how rigid Australia's two-party system is and you get to a point where I think that Xenophon will dissapoint: he'll get seats but not that many.  Although with an unpopular Liberal federal government and an ALP government that's been there for years and which has lost the TPP vote to the Liberals in the last two elections; this is the time where a third party should do well if one is ever going to do well.

A 30/30/30 election will prove ungovernable long term though; the lower house will be... odd and the Upper House; when you add in the seats that the Greens, the Shooters and (possibly) One Nation will win and considering that it uses PR that will just be a total mess and whoever is in government will need some kind of formal arrangement with someone.  That's the issue that Xenophon has: their party hasn't got the firm base that the LNP or the ALP have: which means that if they lean towards one side they'll annoy the other - especially if they end up being the junior partner since global trends suggest that Junior partners in coalitions or other arrangements tend to explode and lose significant support in the election after - look at the Lib Dems in the UK since 2010, or the PvdA in the Netherlands recently - and the two of them are established parties and not new populist forces with odd coalitions.

Xenophon has very good party infrastructure in SA for a third party, remember he's been around since 1997.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I just read a good article from the ABC but I would just outline the headline as it makes a good point.
"Popularity was never Nick Xenophon's problem. It's what comes next that's unknown."

[warandwar]

I just read a good article from the ABC but I would just outline the headline as it makes a good point.
"Popularity was never Nick Xenophon's problem. It's what comes next that's unknown."

The "good point" is that they have nothing to say?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I just read a good article from the ABC but I would just outline the headline as it makes a good point.
"Popularity was never Nick Xenophon's problem. It's what comes next that's unknown."

The "good point" is that they have nothing to say?

Search up the article's title, it actually is a very good read as they most certainly have something to say.

[IceAgeComing]

The infrastructure needed for a party that's primarily contesting Legislative Council or Senate seats is very different from that for a party that's going to try and contest every seat available in order to try and win and form a government.  While they have grown recently its really been very quick and speedy - four years ago they only contested the Legislative Council and even then only elected one member of the eleven and even two years ago they were clearly a third party even though they did very well - and you don't want any growing pains to impact you right before you need to start campaigning.  Add in the fact that they need to recruit candidates for every seat for both houses and that because this is such a different election they can't assume that certain seats are unwinnable and therefore just stand paper candidates there and that can be an issue, especially if after nomination day you discover that some of your candidates are either terrible or have... dodgy histories.

I mean its not a firm barrier and there are obviously examples of parties rising from nowhere to do incredibly well to the point where the above weren't issues because people were inspired to vote for them enough to balance that stuff out - to use anglosphere examples, look at the NDP federally in Quebec in 2011 and the provincially in Alberta in 2016 but even then that's not entirely comparable since its a party that's established elsewhere in a country suddenly jumping up and winning in places where no one ever thought that they would.  The issue also is that personality parties (and that's what Xenophon is; its not based on anything other than the leader) tend to be very unstable in that they could have lots of splits and fragment very quickly, especially if anything happens to Xenophon.  I'm not saying that they haven't a shot because that'd be silly to say about any party in their position but its an uphill battle and they need to work incredibly hard over the next few months to have a shot at being the lead partner of any government in the state, and there's still an big chance of a 1998 Queensland style situation or even worse where they're on the edge of a large breakthrough but they don't quite get enough first preference votes to be in contention in the vast majority of seats. 

Also, you do realise that you can link articles?  Its not hard to link something that you find interesting if you want to talk about it; and it makes it a lot more likely that people will read it and talk about it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Former WA Premier Colin Barnett has resigned his seat of Cottesloe, causing a by-election. Labor isn't running so it's between the Liberals and the Greens, and the Libs will win it.

[Lachi]

St. Paddy's day is gonna be busy day for elections: Cottesloe (WA LA), and Batman (Federal) by-elections, and the SA election.

[NewYorkExpress]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/barnaby-joyce-fighting-like-cornered-tiger-to-hold-on-grattan/9454006

A sex scandal involving Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, has the potential to bring down the Turnbull government.

Will it?

[Lachi]

SA-BEST is now running 35 candidates

https://sabest.org.au/candidates/house-of-assembly/

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-16/barnaby-joyce-fighting-like-cornered-tiger-to-hold-on-grattan/9454006

A sex scandal involving Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, has the potential to bring down the Turnbull government.

Will it?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-23/barnaby-joyce-resigns/9477616?pfmredir=sm

It brought him down at least. Maybe he'll have time to spend with his family. Err... families.

[Lachi]

#PutOutYourBeetroots #Barnabye

[Lachi]

As expected, Michael McCormack has been elected as the new leader of the Nationals, and will take Joyce's position as Deputy PM.

[Meclazine for Israel]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor's won the Batman by-election.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberals will form majority government in South Australia, and Steve Marshall will be the next premier.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Something very important we all must remember, Turnbull is currently on 28 lost in a row, so in maybe 6 weeks we get a giant Abbott meltdown over 30 lost in a row!

[Lachi]

Something very important we all must remember, Turnbull is currently on 28 lost in a row, so in maybe 6 weeks we get a giant Abbott meltdown over 30 lost in a row!

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if there are more people who freak out than just Abbott