dazzleman
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Posts: 13,777
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59
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« on: May 15, 2005, 05:59:38 PM » |
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Lindsay was a Republican who swtiched to the Democrats once he was in office. He was a terrible mayor.
Bloomberg is a Democrat who switched to the Republicans to avoid the crowded Democratic primary field. It was a long-shot ploy that worked.
Bloomberg is more liberal than the typical Republican but he has kept crime down, which is something that a Democrat could never have done.
Within the pathetic confines of New York City politics, you don't get anybody much better than Bloomberg who is electable, and any other the viable alternatives are far worse.
I think Bloomberg will probably win re-election. New York City voters are basically in 4 blocks -- Blue collar whites in the outer boroughs, white Manhattan elites, blacks and hispanics.
The blue collar whites in the outer boroughs are strongly anti-black, and will vote in droves against a minority candidate unless he/she is very moderate, which is unlikely. Virginia Fields won't stand a chance with these voters. Even a white candidate who is perceived as catering too much to blacks will do very poorly among these people.
The black voters vote Democratic no matter what, and will vote especially strongly for a black candidate.
The balance is held by the hispanics and elite Manhattan whites. Bloomberg does relatively well with both these groups. Giuliani won because enough of the people in these groups abandoned Dinkins to vote for him, and they elected Bloomberg also.
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