SurveyUSA in Arkansas!

[Gustaf]

*SIGHS*

This poll obviously sucked, that's one thing. But the South is NOT as uncompetitive as many Republicans seem to think. I don't think Kerry is gonna win a lot in the SOuth, he isn't a very Southern candiadate. But it's not like the GOP has a lock on it. Most of the lean GOP states are in the South.

Victory margins in 2000:

Colorado 8.36%  

Virginia 8.04%    

Louisiana 7.68%  

West Virginia 6.32%  

Arizona  6.28%  

Washington 5.58%  

Arkansas 5.44%  

Michigan  5.13%

Maine  5.11%  

Pennsylvania 4.17%

Tennessee  3.86%

All of those states are certainly winnable for either side.

[WalterMitty]

the black vote makes southern states appear closer than they actually are.

bush may only be ahead in arkansas by 5 points, but that's still a pretty solid lead.  kerry is not going to do very well at all with white southern males (or females, for that matter)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because of my methodology I have to have Arkansas as NCF.
The poll was pretty bad (though better than the Uni poll... is that difficult?) and can only give a vauge hint as to how the race in AR is shaping up... mind you, with a state as rural as Arkansas is it possible to get a decent poll?
---
The only states that even vaugly resemble the Solid South of old, are some of those uber-GOP Western states.
---
Something we all tend to do is overestimate the effects of "stratergies". Remember: the US is a Democracy. The people will decide who wins each state... not Karl Rove.

[Gustaf]

the black vote makes southern states appear closer than they actually are.

bush may only be ahead in arkansas by 5 points, but that's still a pretty solid lead.  kerry is not going to do very well at all with white southern males (or females, for that matter)

That's a decent point...but not all that supported by history. Southern states swing back and forth a lot, voters there aren't all that solid.

[WalterMitty]

im not saying democrats *cant* win in the south.  but id ont see kerry making a lot of inroads.

[ShapeShifter]

People who described themselves as 'moderates' favored KErry 60-31%

i notice that too, but howcome then Bush is leading in the poll by only 2?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People who described themselves as 'moderates' favored KErry 60-31%

i notice that too, but howcome then Bush is leading in the poll by only 2?

AR-3 is VERY conservative and is the only part of the state where the GOP have a political machine worth bothering with...

[The Vorlon]

*SIGHS*

This poll obviously sucked, that's one thing. But the South is NOT as uncompetitive as many Republicans seem to think. I don't think Kerry is gonna win a lot in the SOuth, he isn't a very Southern candiadate. But it's not like the GOP has a lock on it. Most of the lean GOP states are in the South.

Victory margins in 2000:

Colorado 8.36%  

Virginia 8.04%    

Louisiana 7.68%  

West Virginia 6.32%  

Arizona  6.28%  

Washington 5.58%  

Arkansas 5.44%  

Michigan  5.13%

Maine  5.11%  

Pennsylvania 4.17%

Tennessee  3.86%

All of those states are certainly winnable for either side.

I guess it depends what you define "competitive" as

Are they winnable by both side..? ya sure, no doubt about it, but if any of them gets truly in play, the election is over anyway...

If it ever gets to the point where if sombody asks me "Who is ahead in Arizona?" and I am not sure the answer is "Bush" then the election is over, and Kerry has won.

Similarly, if you ever ask me "Who is ahead in Washington" and If I have to think about if Kerry is ahead, it is likewise all over and Bush has won.

chop chop!

PS - My new map is up - Divided up in 2% increments - think it works pretty well actually.

[Ben.]

Vorlon your map is right on what i was thinking... WI, PA added to Bush's collum...

However over the next two weeks or so it will be interesting to see how Kerry new ad offensive goes down and if he can reclaim some of his old advantage... Bush ads gave hima  temporary boost on domestic issues however that seems to have declined very quickly and now he's basically back to where he started out... the next few weeks should be pretty interesting...          

[John]

Bush will win the States he needs to win the Election
My Predction
Bush: 300
Kerry: 247

[© tweed]

Bush will win the States he needs to win the Election
My Predction
Bush: 300
Kerry: 247

Too many EV's John

[Gustaf]

*SIGHS*

This poll obviously sucked, that's one thing. But the South is NOT as uncompetitive as many Republicans seem to think. I don't think Kerry is gonna win a lot in the SOuth, he isn't a very Southern candiadate. But it's not like the GOP has a lock on it. Most of the lean GOP states are in the South.

Victory margins in 2000:

Colorado 8.36%  

Virginia 8.04%    

Louisiana 7.68%  

West Virginia 6.32%  

Arizona  6.28%  

Washington 5.58%  

Arkansas 5.44%  

Michigan  5.13%

Maine  5.11%  

Pennsylvania 4.17%

Tennessee  3.86%

All of those states are certainly winnable for either side.

I guess it depends what you define "competitive" as

Are they winnable by both side..? ya sure, no doubt about it, but if any of them gets truly in play, the election is over anyway...

If it ever gets to the point where if sombody asks me "Who is ahead in Arizona?" and I am not sure the answer is "Bush" then the election is over, and Kerry has won.

Similarly, if you ever ask me "Who is ahead in Washington" and If I have to think about if Kerry is ahead, it is likewise all over and Bush has won.

chop chop!

PS - My new map is up - Divided up in 2% increments - think it works pretty well actually.

Hm...not necessarily. It'd only take a RELATIVE swing of a few points to make one of those states competitive in a close race. Now, I'm not saying that this WILL happen, but that it COULD. I do think the map will look basically the same as in 2000, with the same battlegrounds, the only true exception being West Virginia, but I'm just putting this out as a reminder. A state that was by a margin of 8% 4 years ago could be competitive this year.

[The Vorlon]

Bush will win the States he needs to win the Election
My Predction
Bush: 300
Kerry: 247

The 300 is perfect though..

Maybe France now has 9 EVs for Kerry?

[Gustaf]

Bush will win the States he needs to win the Election
My Predction
Bush: 300
Kerry: 247

The 300 is perfect though..

Maybe France now has 9 EVs for Kerry?

No, those are 9 foreign leaders, who will be allowed to attend the EC.

[ian]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

People in AR LOVE John Edwards (for whatever reason)

[The Vorlon]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

People in AR LOVE John Edwards (for whatever reason)

State   2000 Result   Rasmussen  2004   Change from 2000
Illinois                 -12.01   -13.00   -0.99
California                  -11.80   -9.00   +2.80
Washington   -5.58   -6.00   -0.42
Michigan                   -5.13   -4.00   +1.13
Pennsylvania   -4.17   -1.00   +3.17
Minnesota   -2.40   -3.00   -0.60
Iowa                   -0.31   -10.00   -9.69
Florida                    +0.00   -1.00   -1.00
Missouri                     +3.34   +7.00   +3.66
Ohio                    +3.51   -4.00   -7.51
West Virginia   +6.32   +5.00   -1.32
North Carolina   +12.83   +8.00   -4.83

[© tweed]

People in AR LOVE John Edwards (for whatever reason)

...but they don't, and never will, love John Kerry.

If edwards was the nominee he would win Arkansas by 8-10%, but sadly, he's not.  Bush will pull through in AR.