SurveyUSA in Arkansas!

[© tweed]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

[ShapeShifter]

This race is surely going to be close.

[© tweed]

This race is surely going to be close.

Nah

Kerry *could* win AR if he spent tens of millions there...but that would kill him in OH, WV, PA, etc.

[ShapeShifter]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

[angus]

Bush should spread the rumor Kerry would outlaw wifebeating.  That's all the edge we would need.    

[© tweed]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

You are missing the point here...

If you parked Edwards in Arkansas, he could win arkansas.  but that's only 6 EV's.  Parking edwards in WV, OH, and PA is 46 EV's.  Not that we would win all three, but it's a better strategy.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

You are missing the point here...

If you parked Edwards in Arkansas, he could win arkansas.  but that's only 6 EV's.  Parking edwards in WV, OH, and PA is 46 EV's.  Not that we would win all three, but it's a better strategy.

Gore did ok there, the SE (i think that's the part) it still very democratic.  I'm not sure having Clinton go around would help, but Edwards would definetely make it competitive.  Southerners like fellow Southerners, and as long as Edwards maintains his perception of being more moderate, some of the close Southern states could become interesting.  

Come to think of it, what exactly IS this Southern GOP base.  KY, SC, GA, AL, and MS are the only Southern states I will say Kerry has no chance in.  A well thought out VP pick (aka Edwards) could definetely make TN, AR, LA, NC, and VA all competitive.  

[ShapeShifter]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

You are missing the point here...

If you parked Edwards in Arkansas, he could win arkansas.  but that's only 6 EV's.  Parking edwards in WV, OH, and PA is 46 EV's.  Not that we would win all three, but it's a better strategy.

No No. Even before this poll, I felt Edwards should be VP. I am not saying pick Edwards for Arkansas but 6 EV is sure a lot when the last election was won by 2 EV.

[© tweed]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

You are missing the point here...

If you parked Edwards in Arkansas, he could win arkansas.  but that's only 6 EV's.  Parking edwards in WV, OH, and PA is 46 EV's.  Not that we would win all three, but it's a better strategy.

No No. Even before this poll, I felt Edwards should be VP. I am not saying pick Edwards for Arkansas but 6 EV is sure a lot when the last election was won by 2 EV.

PA is 21 EV's, we need to keep it in our column.

[ShapeShifter]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

You are missing the point here...

If you parked Edwards in Arkansas, he could win arkansas.  but that's only 6 EV's.  Parking edwards in WV, OH, and PA is 46 EV's.  Not that we would win all three, but it's a better strategy.

No No. Even before this poll, I felt Edwards should be VP. I am not saying pick Edwards for Arkansas but 6 EV is sure a lot when the last election was won by 2 EV.

PA is 21 EV's, we need to keep it in our column.

Of course. I think in the end, it will.

[© tweed]

New poll has Bush lead within the margin of error in Arkansas, 47-45%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AR040416president.pdf

(An arkansas state university poll has Bush+8)

This just makes we whine for Edwards even more.

I am telling you, I totally agree on the Edward thing. I really hope he choose him as a running mate.

You are missing the point here...

If you parked Edwards in Arkansas, he could win arkansas.  but that's only 6 EV's.  Parking edwards in WV, OH, and PA is 46 EV's.  Not that we would win all three, but it's a better strategy.

No No. Even before this poll, I felt Edwards should be VP. I am not saying pick Edwards for Arkansas but 6 EV is sure a lot when the last election was won by 2 EV.

PA is 21 EV's, we need to keep it in our column.

Of course. I think in the end, it will.

not if you spend 20M in Arkansas

[zachman]

The amazing thing about the poll,and I mention this a lot is that Bush was not over 50% with many demographics which indicates that the voters there are dissatisfied with him. He was ahead there among hispanics by a 10% margin.

[© tweed]

People who described themselves as 'moderates' favored KErry 60-31%

[agcatter]

Hockeydude, so you think Kerry has a chance in Texas?  I think you might want to inlude that state in the "GOP Southern base".

[The Vorlon]

Actual Party id in Arkansas: (Pew Data)



Actual Party ID in this poll:

Dems 35%
GOP 21%

i.e. Voter ID just about equal in Arkansas, this poll talked to 277 Democrats and 171 Republicans..

In this survey...

Percentage of Bush 2000 voters voting for Kerry = 5%
Pecentage of Gore Supporters voting for Bush  = 24%
So 5 times as many Gore votes have switched to Bush, as Bush voters swithing to Kerry.. But Kerry is doing better...?  

People in this survey who voted Bush in 2000 = 233
People in this survey who voted Gore in 2000 = 257

(i.e. among the people surveyed Gore "won" arkansas by 5% over Bush in 2000)

Actual Arkansas Result = Bush +5.44%

Just my 2 cents worth... Ya'll have a great weekend!

[angus]

Hockeydude, so you think Kerry has a chance in Texas?  I think you might want to inlude that state in the "GOP Southern base".

Starts at 34, no doubt.  2d biggest blocks of votes.  build from there.  34 to 31 actually, as a starting point in a modern election.

Vorlon, nice stats.  

[The Vorlon]

Hockeydude, so you think Kerry has a chance in Texas?  I think you might want to inlude that state in the "GOP Southern base".

Starts at 34, no doubt.  2d biggest blocks of votes.  build from there.  34 to 31 actually, as a starting point in a modern election.

Vorlon, nice stats.  

I don't want to seem partisan here.  I seem of late to be picking more on the pro-kerry polls than the pro-Bush ones (other than that Bush +4 in New Jersey if you can believe it)

Unfortunately, really, really bad methodologies will tend to produce a very pro-Democratic results.
Hey... it's another poll..

BTW, I added a few more states to my original post...

[agcatter]

Yeah, those stats indicate this poll is VERY questionable.  I don't buy it anymore than I buy the New Jersey results.  One thing you've opened my eyes to is that all polls are NOT created equal.  I had no idea that methodologies were so different from poll to poll.  Thanks for giving the guts of the Arkansas poll.

[WalterMitty]

i was reading this thread about the democratic  hopes in arkansas and all of a sudden i think i saw a pig flying outside my window, lol.

[classical liberal]

Dems winning AR is like the GOP winning MI.

[WalterMitty]

republicans have bigger shot at winning michigan than the dems have at arkansas.

kerry just isnt going to go over too well in dixie.  

[Lunar]

Both require a landslide, plain and simple.  There is no way that either is switching if the results are 53-46-1 or something like that.

[Rococo4]

Even if you assume this poll is correct, and Bush is up by 5 points in all of these "swing states" then it is going to be very difficult for Kerry to pick and choose where he wants to fight.  Someone said it before in this thread, but worth repeating: Kerry is certainlty not going to win a Southern state that Al Gore lost, barring a major unforseen event.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Arkansas is close... does that actually class as news? The basic political structure of the state means that unless it has a local boy running for President (ie: Bill Clinton) it will almost certainly be winnable for either side...
Arkansas stays NCF

[WalterMitty]

all southern states are firmly with bush.

hearing dems talking abut a southern strategy is just as crazy as hearing republicans talk about california.