How likely is it that a non-establishment candidate will get the GOP Nomination?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

With the anti-establishment fervor out there this year and many establishment candidates (Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich, Walker???) splitting that support, how likely is it that a non-establishment candidate will win the nomination?

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Around 50%, I'd say. Usually the establishment is pretty successful at having its hand-picked nominee win (e.g. 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, etc.), but I'm actually beginning to doubt that this election will go the same way...

You really think Walker is from the establishment? Ehh...

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Around 50%, I'd say. Usually the establishment is pretty successful at having its hand-picked nominee win (e.g. 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, etc.), but I'm actually beginning to doubt that this election will go the same way...

You really think Walker is from the establishment? Ehh...

I don't really think Walker is establishment that's why I put question marks around him, in some ways he is in many others he's not, but he can peel off establishment support so I included him.

[pho]

50% between Trump, Cruz, and Carson.

Trump will most likely be the nominee if currents don't change soon. Republican primary voters usually stick with the long term front runner.

[SteveRogers]

You really think Walker is from the establishment? Ehh...

No, he isn't from the establishment wing of the party. But he was supposed to be the establishment's choice for a fallback candidate if Bush faltered, the candidate who could unite the establishment and Tea Partiers. But now with Bush's position as the establishment front-runner looking increasingly untenable, Walker has turned out to be a complete dud. Rubio should be the next viable option for the establishment, but he hasn't done anything lately to distinguish himself from the pack and prove that his campaign is worth pouring resources into. I can't help but think that Kasich would be a major player if only he'd started putting together a serious campaign back when everyone else was instead of waiting until the last minute.

So yeah, things look pretty grim for the Republican establishment. I'm not ready to predict that Trump actually wins the nomination though.  I'm willing to bet that this race gets even weirder between now and February.

[Leinad]

Walker isn't establishment, but the establishment would certainly prefer him to Cruz or Trump, and probably Carson as well. I hate to say this, but Rand's kind of out of it at this point--it's hard to win the Republican nomination without being good with either the establishment or the majority of conservatives (which is why I've put Trump at near 0% until recently) and Paul isn't looking likely to do it.

Five (or maybe six) people, I think, can win. Jeb! as the establishment guy, Rubio as the fallback establishment guy, a rejuvenated Walker as a compromise candidate, Cruz as the conservative guy, or Trump as the anti-establishment guy. Maybe Kasich as another fallback establishment guy, but I think Rubio has a better shot to get conservative support and thus win with some of the establishment holding out for Bush or switching to Kasich. Carson theoretically could, but he's too gaffe-prone, won't pull enough of the outsider vote from Trump, and won't pull enough of the severely-conservative vote from Cruz.

Probably about 50/50. 20% Jeb, 15% Rubio, 10% Kasich, 3% Walker-as-establishment-stopgap-against-Trump-or-Cruz, 1% Christie comeback, 1% Romney-as-surprise-fallback VS. 20% for Trump, 20% for Cruz, 5% for Walker-as-conservative, 4.5% for Carson, 0.5% for Huckabee/Paul comeback or Jindal doing a Santorum but taking it all the way.

[okierepublican]

About 60% the republican political machine will rally behind who ever wins New Hampshire, as long as it isn't trump, and that candidate will win.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'd say its about 30/70 as in anti-establishment/establishment. I'm counting Walker and Rubio in the establishment as well. Usually I would say 90% chance the establishment candidate gets the nod, this year its a bit higher.

About 60% the republican political machine will rally behind who ever wins New Hampshire, as long as it isn't trump, and that candidate will win.

This is true as well. The winner of New Hampshire almost always wins the nomination.

[Mister Mets]

I guess non-establishment is Trump, Carson, Cruz, Paul and maybe Huckabee. Well, Santorum too, I guess, but not much of a shot there.

Fiorina was Vice-Chair of the Senate campaign committee. She's establishment.

There is an anti-establishment mood right now, and the anti-establishment guys are leading in the polls. But the establishment has some strong candidates, and they've got institutional advantages in a longer fight. I'd give them a 70% chance.