MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails!
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  MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails!
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Author Topic: MI-Mitchell: Hillary trails!  (Read 6434 times)
Skye
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« on: August 21, 2015, 09:59:24 AM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Clinton 36
Rubio 45

Clinton 40
Bush 41

Clinton 39
Trump 40 (!!!)

Couldn't find the link to the poll, since the link in RCP is broken. Will update when available.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2015, 10:05:39 AM »

Junk poll!

Seriously.
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Republican Michigander
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2015, 10:18:50 AM »

I'm not going to get excited by an August Poll.

There's also slim to none chance Trump wins a general election in Michigan. Trump would lose like McCain did and by that big of margin.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2015, 10:30:45 AM »

Here's a link to the poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_MI_Press_Release_8-20-15_Rubio_Prez_Final.pdf
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2015, 10:31:53 AM »

Didn't this pollster prove that they were worth crap in 2012 with their terrible polling? Does no one remember that?
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2015, 10:34:38 AM »

I thought Mitchell called it right in 2012 and 2014?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2015, 10:34:59 AM »

Trump wont win MI, but he is dangerous in NH, to the GOP, as well as Hilary, but she would beat Trump, regardless.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2015, 10:38:47 AM »

Their final poll in 2012 had Obama up 5, but he went on to win by 10.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2015, 11:09:01 AM »

Their final poll in 2012 had Obama up 5, but he went on to win by 10.

Yes but PPP (D) had Obama up by 6.  So the house affect of Mitchell Research does not seem that great.  It could be that Dem under poll in MI.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2015, 11:27:54 AM »

This is so incredibly bizarre:
Quote
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2015, 11:37:13 AM »

Throwing this poll in the trash can would be an insult to trash.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2015, 12:50:23 PM »

This poll is a bigger joke than Hillary (and that means something).
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mds32
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2015, 01:11:18 PM »

Throwing this poll in the trash can would be an insult to trash.

PPP will likely have another Michigan poll because of this.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2015, 01:42:31 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2015, 01:45:41 PM by Mehmentum »

According to this poll, Bush is doing 9 points better in Michigan than Wisconsin (according to Marquette) and Trump is doing 17 points better.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2015, 01:44:38 PM »

Trash, look at Marquette's Wisconsin poll.  Wisconsin will go Republican before Michigan.

Most once thought that Aldridge-Brownhills would go Labour before Enfield Southgate.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2015, 01:46:58 PM »

Trash, look at Marquette's Wisconsin poll.  Wisconsin will go Republican before Michigan.

Most once thought that Aldridge-Brownhills would go Labour before Enfield Southgate.
I don't know the specifics of those regions.  However, any factors that swing Wisconsin to the right or left should also apply to Michigan, as they are very similar states.
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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2015, 02:23:25 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2015, 02:25:28 PM by Torie »

Whatever the "junkiness" of the polling outfit, how does one dismiss out of hand that little datum that Rubio's lead is about 8 points ahead of Donald and Jeb against Hillary, and that he is trashing Hillary by 9 points with about a 4% Dem PVI? Just asking.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2015, 02:26:14 PM »

Whatever the "junkiness" of the polling outfit, how does one dismiss out of hand that little datum that Rubio's lead is about 8 points ahead of Donald and Jeb against Hillary, and that he is trashing Hillary by 9 points with a 5% Dem PVI? Just asking.

Exactly. Not to mention that Rubio is also polling extremely well in FL, PA and OH. That's all he needs. He could win even without Virginia.

(Having said that, he still needs to step up his game if he wants to win the nomination.)
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RFayette
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2015, 02:28:34 PM »

If Rubio's polling surge continues, he'll be a force to be reckoned with.  It's hard to remember the good ol' days of 2014 when Rubio polled worse in head-to-head matchups than Jeb.
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King
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2015, 02:41:00 PM »

the poll board should be on an episode of Hoarders with all the trash in it these days smh
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2015, 03:07:06 PM »

the poll board should be on an episode of Hoarders with all the trash in it these days smh

Stop being a hack for Democrats /sarc
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2015, 03:20:49 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2015, 03:22:42 PM by Mehmentum »

Okay, can any Democrat here please explain to us why this poll is "junk".
Because it has Michigan being more Republican than either Wisconsin (Marquette), Ohio, Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac), Iowa (PPP), and New Hampshire (WMUR).

It also has Rubio leading by 21% with 18-39 year olds, while all the Republicans trail with 60-69 year olds.  
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2015, 03:22:40 PM »

According to this poll:
- Clinton leads ??-12-?? with Democrats;
- Rubio leads 87-4-9 with Republicans;
- Rubio leads 48-27-25 with Independents.

It's hard to believe that Clinton is winning only 27% of Independents. In 2012, Obama won 48% of Independents. Romney won 49% of Indepedents, now Rubio is winning 48%.
In 2012, Romney won 4% of Democrats. Now, Rubio is winning 12%. It's the triple.
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Torie
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2015, 03:33:41 PM »

According to this poll:
- Clinton leads ??-12-?? with Democrats;
- Rubio leads 87-4-9 with Republicans;
- Rubio leads 48-27-25 with Independents.

It's hard to believe that Clinton is winning only 27% of Independents. In 2012, Obama won 48% of Independents. Romney won 49% of Indepedents, now Rubio is winning 48%.
In 2012, Romney won 4% of Democrats. Now, Rubio is winning 12%. It's the triple.


Oh, one possibility is that a small chunk of Dems and Dem leaning independents moved into the undecided column vis a vis someone that is not facially unacceptable to them at the moment, pending a resolution of Hillary's problems, which problems bother them. My guess is that over time, Hillary's problems will mitigate in intensity as time goes by, and she will get some of them back, or her problems will worsen, and she will drop out. In other words, the current situation is not a stable one, but rather in a state of dis-equalibrium, and therefore new little political molecules will form to resolve that.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2015, 04:41:45 PM »

Obama and his maps were landslide elections. CLINTON is settling into normal Dem numbers, where MI along with with WI & Pa are 4 pts more Dem than the natl average. She will win the state by 4.
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