Let's play a game. Who do you believe will be the last 4-5 standing candidates?

[/]

Pataki, Graham, Gilmore, Santorum, and Jindal (obviously)

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Trump
Walker
Bush
Cruz
Huckabee

I think though that it will fall like a house of cards very quickly. Most of the second tier candidates will drop out either before or immediately after the Iowa Caucus. Paul will put all of his resources into winning New Hampshire but drop out when he still only finishes in fourth place. Cruz and Huckabee will compete for the religious right/southern vote but Huckabee will drop out first because his appeal is even more narrow and Cruz will just be a regional candidate and it'll be down to a three way between Bush, Trump and Walker.

[xavier110]

Trump
Cruz
Bush
Walker
Rubio

The last two will linger because Bush's numbers throughout will be horrible -- he'll stay in, however, because of $$

[Rockefeller GOP]

Trump, Bush, Carson, Paul

You wish, haha.

[Yelnoc]

Trump, Bush, Carson, Paul

You wish, haha.

Why not? Bush is the establishment favorite and has enough money to whether a string of bad debate performances or even early primary losses. Trump is a self-financing egomaniac. Paul appears to be cast in the mold of his father, the kind of candidate who will keep going long after everyone has stopped paying attention to him. And Carson is the conservative favorite. Even before this debate, he had significant grassroots support. What is clear now is that the GOP base is looking for someone who isn't a politician, and he fits that bill. And his soft-spoken manner is a sharp contrast to Trump's blustering persona.

[Mehmentum]

In the end, the final candidates are all going to be from different wings of the party.  Look at 2008, we have McCain representing the moderates, Romney representing conservatives, and Huckabee representing evangelicals.  In 2012, we had Romney as the Establishment candidate, with Santorum as the evangelical, Gingrich as the tea party candidate, and Paul as the Libertarian.

1.) Establishment Moderate: Bush or Kasich

2.) Establishment Conservative: Walker or Rubio

3.) Tea Party Candidate: Cruz

4.) Evangelical Candidate: Carson or Huckabee

5.) You Know Who: Trump

So I'd go with Bush, Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Trump.

[Yelnoc]

In the end, the final candidates are all going to be from different wings of the party.  Look at 2008, we have McCain representing the moderates, Romney representing conservatives, and Huckabee representing evangelicals.  In 2012, we had Romney as the Establishment candidate, with Santorum as the evangelical, Gingrich as the tea party candidate, and Paul as the Libertarian.

1.) Establishment Moderate: Bush or Kasich

2.) Establishment Conservative: Walker or Rubio

3.) Tea Party Candidate: Cruz

4.) Evangelical Candidate: Carson or Huckabee

5.) You Know Who: Trump

So I'd go with Bush, Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Trump.

Bush and Kasich are "Establishment Conservatives;" establishment moderates went extinct after 2010. The Tea Party is not an organized faction, the types of people who support Cruz are by and large Evangelicals, who are the group we really mean when we talk about "grassroots" support for Republicans. Trump takes from that same pool.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

In the end, the final candidates are all going to be from different wings of the party.  Look at 2008, we have McCain representing the moderates, Romney representing conservatives, and Huckabee representing evangelicals.  In 2012, we had Romney as the Establishment candidate, with Santorum as the evangelical, Gingrich as the tea party candidate, and Paul as the Libertarian.

1.) Establishment Moderate: Bush or Kasich

2.) Establishment Conservative: Walker or Rubio

3.) Tea Party Candidate: Cruz

4.) Evangelical Candidate: Carson or Huckabee

5.) You Know Who: Trump

So I'd go with Bush, Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Trump.

Bush and Kasich are "Establishment Conservatives;" establishment moderates went extinct after 2010. The Tea Party is not an organized faction, the types of people who support Cruz are by and large Evangelicals, who are the group we really mean when we talk about "grassroots" support for Republicans. Trump takes from that same pool.

The Tea Party has multiple factions within it, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are both Tea Party but represent different ideologies. Also, I wouldn't consider Newt Gingrich to be Tea Party, IMO I'd say Santorum fit that role better than Newt Gingrich did.

[/]

In the end, the final candidates are all going to be from different wings of the party.  Look at 2008, we have McCain representing the moderates, Romney representing conservatives, and Huckabee representing evangelicals.  In 2012, we had Romney as the Establishment candidate, with Santorum as the evangelical, Gingrich as the tea party candidate, and Paul as the Libertarian.

1.) Establishment Moderate: Bush or Kasich

2.) Establishment Conservative: Walker or Rubio

3.) Tea Party Candidate: Cruz

4.) Evangelical Candidate: Carson or Huckabee

5.) You Know Who: Trump

So I'd go with Bush, Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Trump.

Interesting analysis; I would think that Huckabee could beat Carson for the Evangelicals, though. And where's the Libertarian?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

In the end, the final candidates are all going to be from different wings of the party.  Look at 2008, we have McCain representing the moderates, Romney representing conservatives, and Huckabee representing evangelicals.  In 2012, we had Romney as the Establishment candidate, with Santorum as the evangelical, Gingrich as the tea party candidate, and Paul as the Libertarian.

1.) Establishment Moderate: Bush or Kasich

2.) Establishment Conservative: Walker or Rubio

3.) Tea Party Candidate: Cruz

4.) Evangelical Candidate: Carson or Huckabee

5.) You Know Who: Trump

So I'd go with Bush, Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Trump.

Interesting analysis; I would think that Huckabee could beat Carson for the Evangelicals, though. And where's the Libertarian?

Obviously that will be Rand Paul, but he may not stay in the race till the end like his father did. He may decide to play it safe and drop out to run for re-election to the Senate (all depending on how well he does in the primaries).

I may get a lot of flak from my fellow libertarians on this matter, but I think Cruz could also get the libertarian support if Rand Paul drops out before Cruz does.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yeah, Rand and Cruz, despite their subtle differences, are basically both Tea Party candidates. Both of them being in the race is redundant. I expect one will drop out to make room for the other, if not give an explicit endorsement.

[Mehmentum]

In the end, the final candidates are all going to be from different wings of the party.  Look at 2008, we have McCain representing the moderates, Romney representing conservatives, and Huckabee representing evangelicals.  In 2012, we had Romney as the Establishment candidate, with Santorum as the evangelical, Gingrich as the tea party candidate, and Paul as the Libertarian.

1.) Establishment Moderate: Bush or Kasich

2.) Establishment Conservative: Walker or Rubio

3.) Tea Party Candidate: Cruz

4.) Evangelical Candidate: Carson or Huckabee

5.) You Know Who: Trump

So I'd go with Bush, Walker, Cruz, Carson, and Trump.

Bush and Kasich are "Establishment Conservatives;" establishment moderates went extinct after 2010. The Tea Party is not an organized faction, the types of people who support Cruz are by and large Evangelicals, who are the group we really mean when we talk about "grassroots" support for Republicans. Trump takes from that same pool.

'Conservative' and 'Moderate' are all relative.  By some standards Bush and Kasich may be conservative, but there is a clear distinction between these candidates and someone like Walker and Rubio.

Similarly there is a distinction between someone like Huckabee and someone like Cruz.  Evangelical conservatives are relatively moderate on economic issues.  Huckabee is strongly in favor of protecting medicaid and social security, and raised taxes multiple times as governor. These are things that the strict economic conservatives in the Tea Party would never say or do.  Huckabee got hammered on this during the 2008 campaign.

While many evangelicals do support tea party candidates, there is a certain type of evangelical voter within the GOP that is much more likely to vote for Huckabee than for Cruz (and vice versa). 

[Mister Mets]

My guess is that the establishment group of Jeb, Rubio, Walker, Fiorina and Kasich are going to be winnowed down to two pretty towards the end. The most likely ones seem to be Jeb and Walker.

Trump's got money, and he's polling in first place. So he does he have a good shot of being one of the last five.

Either Huckabee or Cruz will be in the race til the end. I think Cruz is a bit likelier, but it's essentially a coin toss.

And Rand Paul has a different niche.

So the likeliest group is Jeb, Walker, Trump, Cruz and Paul.

These aren't the five likeliest to win the nomination. If Jeb stumbles, Rubio or Kasich will be well-positioned.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jeb Bush
Scott Walker
John Kasich
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

For all who think Walker is establishment, he's firmly Tea Party

I look at it like this

Establishment Wing: Jeb, Kasich
Tea Party who have appeal to some Establishment: Rubio, Walker
Tea Party dye in the wool: Paul, Carson, Cruz
Firmly In between the two factions: Huckabee
plant by the Hillary people: Trump

[bballrox4717]

Going with Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Bush, and Walker.

Most of the Tea Party/SoCon types coalesce around Cruz, Trump keeps his following, while Rubio eventually eclipses Bush and Walker as they begin to lose to Cruz and Trump.

[SteveRogers]

Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Fiorina.

Most of the bottom tier drops out after Iowa. Carson and Huckabee drop out after South Carolina. Paul drops out after Super Tuesday. By that time Trump will have either decided to run as an independent or will have rage quit the whole thing.

[socaldem]

Trump, Walker, Cruz, Kasich, Fiorina

Some observations

Bush: I think Bush actually has a good chance of dropping out sooner than later. Yes he has tons of money. But he already has 100% name recognition and only ~10% support. I really don't see where he gets additional votes from and the rationale of his campaign. There are solid establishment alternatives in Walker, Rubio, Kasich--even Fiorina--each of whom has a far better chance of generating excitement and creating a unified front against the scaries: Trump, Cruz/Carson, and Paul. Jeb is uninspiring and a Bush retread. That combined with his lack of charisma, overall goofiness, and poor debate performances should give the establishment GOP pause.

Jeb, meanwhile, is a creature of the establishment. If another candidate starts to gain steam and if Bush continues to stall, he will face pressure to fall on his sword. Bush will follow orders of the party poohbahs, if necessary. Plus, were he to actually start to lose primaries in dramatic fashion, he would be a huge embarrassment to the family. I'm sure that the family doesn't want his Quixotic bid to result in the nomination going to the likes of Trump or Cruz.

Paul: Though he has a unique niche within the party and probably wants to be engaged long-term, he also has a senate race to attend to and will eventually want to drop out to run for senate again.

Kasich and Fiorina: I doubt either has much of a chance of winning but they will want to stay engaged and relevant as long as possible in order to protect their Veepstakes chances.

Trump: Everyone expects him to flame out. I really don't see it. He has huge name recognition and his supporters are already aware of his clownishness and buffoonery and accept it. He strikes me as very Berlusconi-esque, scandal-prone, but still supported by the right. He will probably maintain around 25% support and in a crowded field that's a lot.

Huckabee: I don't see his appeal this year. I feel that candidates like Walker or Cruz can make just as good an appeal to the religious right voters. I think he will drop out post-Iowa, where he will likely be out-performed by a number of candidates, including Walker and Trump.