Anyway, I still don't get why you're so convinced that NH is going Democratic. Its "Democratic lean" in presidential elections has been basically the same in the past three elections, about 2 points or so. (In fact, I think it trended slightly Republican in 2012.)
Because it's a liberal state in the most liberal part of the country, surrounded by the bluest of states. It was the most Democratic "swing state" in 2012, even more Democratic than PA (not counting WI as a swing state). Candidates like Walker and Bush strike me as being too conservative to win it. Calling it "Tilt D" seems to be fair, but it's far from being a Toss-up. Still winnable for the GOP, though.
