NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump
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  NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump
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Author Topic: NH-WMUR: Clinton close to GOP except against Trump  (Read 7190 times)
Skye
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« on: August 05, 2015, 05:09:40 PM »
« edited: August 06, 2015, 11:00:32 AM by yeah_93 »

She trails Bush, Paul, and Walker; leads Rubio by 1, and leads Trump by 10:

http://www.wmur.com/blob/view/-/34557172/data/2/-/e8xecl/-/GSP---8-5.pdf

Clinton 45
Bush 46

Clinton 43
Paul 45

Clinton 43
Walker 45

Clinton 44
Rubio 43

Clinton 50
Trump 40
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Matty
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2015, 05:26:01 PM »

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EliteLX
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2015, 05:33:39 PM »

God if the GOP elects a sharp ticket and they run a hell of a campaign Hilldog is everything but inevitable.
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2015, 06:29:32 PM »

God if the GOP elects a sharp ticket and they run a hell of a campaign Hilldog is everything but inevitable.
She was never inevitable to begin with.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2015, 06:34:35 PM »

Lots of odd polling in New Hampshire. It'll definitely be competitive, but again with the logic of this forum...

Slightly bad result for Clinton = SHE'S DONE FOR!!!!
Very good results for Clinton = She's only up by n points? Republicans can totally catch up to her/name recognition/etc!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2015, 06:55:35 PM »

Lots of odd polling in New Hampshire. It'll definitely be competitive, but again with the logic of this forum...

Slightly bad result for Clinton = SHE'S DONE FOR!!!! The sample is too Republican!
Very good results for Clinton = She's only up by n points? Republicans can totally catch up to her/name recognition/etc! WOW! I GUESS THE STATE IS NOW SOLID BLUE!

FTFY Smiley

Anyway, NH's early flirtations with the GOP are nothing unusual. I'd be surprised if the Republican candidate carries it since it's become more and more of a blue state in the last decade. That poll is probably good news for Ayotte, though.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2015, 07:06:02 PM »

Look at any poll showing Clinton only slightly ahead or behind a Republican, and you'll see what I'm talking about. Anyway, I still don't get why you're so convinced that NH is going Democratic. Its "Democratic lean" in presidential elections has been basically the same in the past three elections, about 2 points or so. (In fact, I think it trended slightly Republican in 2012.)
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2015, 07:49:41 PM »

I wish they had polled Sanders against the Republicans. I bet he does better than Clinton here.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2015, 07:52:25 PM »

Anyway, I still don't get why you're so convinced that NH is going Democratic. Its "Democratic lean" in presidential elections has been basically the same in the past three elections, about 2 points or so. (In fact, I think it trended slightly Republican in 2012.)

Because it's a liberal state in the most liberal part of the country, surrounded by the bluest of states. It was the most Democratic "swing state" in 2012, even more Democratic than PA (not counting WI as a swing state). Candidates like Walker and Bush strike me as being too conservative to win it. Calling it "Tilt D" seems to be fair, but it's far from being a Toss-up. Still winnable for the GOP, though.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2015, 07:55:46 PM »

NH is a bit unpredictable. It can easily become one of if not the key battleground. If GOP pick up FL, OH, CO and IA, but not VA, NV, PA, or WI....then it all comes down to NH.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2015, 08:21:05 PM »

I wish they had polled Sanders against the Republicans. I bet he does better than Clinton here.
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RFayette 🇻🇦
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2015, 08:53:52 PM »

I wish they had polled Sanders against the Republicans. I bet he does better than Clinton here.

Almost certainly.  My position is that the economy of 2016 will make or break this election:  if GDP growth is at least 2% (this is somewhat arbitrary, but is based on the idea of the economy being characterized as at least "treading water"), Hillary will win, if not, then a Bush/Rubio/Rand/Kasich/Walker will defeat her.  If Trump is the nominee, then Hillary would likely win even with a full-out recession.  This applies to both NH and the nation.
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Devils30
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2015, 09:48:09 PM »

Romney was up 8-9 points here in late 2011. The state is getting attention from the GOP and once the NH primary ends it will revert to its usual D+1 ways. Look at all 2012 polls and Romney was a good fit for the state. Sanders popularity in NH probably hurts Hillary for now too.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2015, 10:35:09 PM »

A 1 to 2 point deficit is hardly a disaster for Clinton.  NH is called a swing state for a reason.   
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2015, 06:39:47 AM »

Clinton isnt gonna lose NH; its like Pa and NM. But, she cant take it for granted, either. Just like Sanders has closed the gap.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2015, 08:40:11 AM »

Just more evidence that Clinton is a bad candidate.

IA and NH are polling poorly for Clinton because these two states are the states that see the candidates most frequently and up close at this point.

The more people see Clinton, the more the hate her.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2015, 08:41:03 AM »

Clinton isnt gonna lose NH; its like Pa and NM. But, she cant take it for granted, either. Just like Sanders has closed the gap.

No it isnt like PA. NH actually went GOP since 1988.
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2015, 08:42:03 AM »

I wish they had polled Sanders against the Republicans. I bet he does better than Clinton here.

I predict right now Sanders wins NH ove Clinton
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bobloblaw
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« Reply #18 on: August 06, 2015, 08:43:22 AM »

A 1 to 2 point deficit is hardly a disaster for Clinton.  NH is called a swing state for a reason.   

When youve been in the public eye for 25 years and youre polling at 45% against a bunch of nobodies, it is indeed a disaster
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: August 06, 2015, 08:46:05 AM »

Can't decide which state is biggee fools' gold for Republicans, New Hampshire or Michigan?
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DS0816
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« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2015, 08:48:33 AM »

Can't decide which state is biggee fools' gold for Republicans, New Hampshire or Michigan?

Especially Pennsylvania.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2015, 08:51:46 AM »

"Likely voters", which now looks like a 2014 electorate.  Practically any imaginable Republican except Trump or Huckabee wins the Presidency with such an electorate.
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King
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« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2015, 09:38:27 AM »
« Edited: August 06, 2015, 09:40:59 AM by King »

Obama was down 42-50 to Romney in September 2011 in the WMUR poll.

http://www.wmur.com/Primary-Poll-Shows-Romney-With-Strong-Lead/11839858

This thread should be retitled Clinton in excellent shape, dominating against Trump.
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RFayette 🇻🇦
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« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2015, 09:40:57 AM »

Obama was down 10 points in New Hampshire in August 2011.

The state has a lot of very easily persuaded voters IMO.
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mencken
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« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2015, 09:42:08 AM »

Obama was down 42-50 to Romney in September 2011 in the WMUR poll.

http://www.wmur.com/Primary-Poll-Shows-Romney-With-Strong-Lead/11839858

This thread should be retitled Clinton in excellent shape, dominating against Trump.

Because poll unskewing worked so well in 2014, right?
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