Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[cp]

I suspect the Star would endorse the NDP if they were tied with/ahead of the Tories and the Libs were a good few points back. Anything more competitive for the Libs and, yeah, they'll get the Star's nod.

The National Post always endorses the Tories. Not even worth discussing.

I'm not too sure about the G&M. They've endorsed the Libs before though only if the Tories have indisputably run an inferior campaign (1993, 2000, 2004, I believe). Judging from their editorials lately they're not too keen on the Libs deficit/investment plan, but they don't seem too enthusiastic about Harper either. It's a genuine toss up. They'll never endorse the NDP, that's for sure.

Personally, I tend to think the G&M and the Economist are the only non-local papers whose endorsement matters in Canada.

[DL]

Some more riding polls (by lolForum):

Toronto Centre:
NDP: 41
Lib: 40
Cons: 14
Grn: 4

(this was always going to be close)

One thing is very weird in the Toronto Centre poll. They have a crosstab for "Past Vote in 2011". As you may know in 2011 Bob Rae beat the no-name NDP candidate in Toronto Centre by a 41% to 30% margin with the Tory getting 22%. With redistribution the heavily Liberal northern third of the riding was lopped off and so under the new boundaries in 2011 Toronto Centre would have voted Liberal by a very narrow 40% to 37% margin (Tories well back at 17%), yet in the Forum poll they have 238 people who voted Liberal in '11, 95 who voted NDP and 77 who voted CPC. In other words instead of past vote being 40% Liberal and 37% NDP it is 56% Liberal and 22% NDP!

Looking at demographics, Toronto Centre should actually be much more winnable for the NDP than University-Rosedale since it is all poor inner city, while U-R now includes all of Rosedale.

Anyways just my two cents worth

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd expect much of the harder to reach people in Toronto Centre are more likely to vote NDP, which would explain why the 2011 vote #s are low for the NDP.

Even though the new boundaries are a perfect fit for the NDP, the NDP has never represented the area, so the voters there aren't as willing to vote NDP as they would in other ridings.

[lilTommy]

I'd expect much of the harder to reach people in Toronto Centre are more likely to vote NDP, which would explain why the 2011 vote #s are low for the NDP.

Even though the new boundaries are a perfect fit for the NDP, the NDP has never represented the area, so the voters there aren't as willing to vote NDP as they would in other ridings.

The NDP need to use their a) Candidate, well know already before the by-election in 2013 and b) ground game and local game... ie their Councillor's like Pam McConnell and Kristin Wong-Tam, both New Democrats (who are supporting her I believe, Pam I think has come out)

[DC Al Fine]

What are "tax integrity measures"?

Mainly, changes to the "Canadian-Controlled Private Corporation" status, which is currently used by some wealthy individuals to split revenue and pay less taxes. They say it allows to evade 500 millions from taxation. Also, more money for CRA to fight tax evasion (they say than every dollar invested to fighting tax evasion generates 4 dollars in taxes) and other measures, including passing C-621.

C-621 (An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (economic substance)). It's a bill saying than the economic substance of a transaction must be considered by the minister and the Courts to determine if that transaction is a "avoidance transaction" and creating a presumption than an "avoidance transaction" with no economic substance violates the law.

Make no sense to me, but economics/accounting isn't my field of work, probably says more to you.

1) CCPC changes are vague as hell. I can't find anything more detailed, which is annoying. This policy could range from being pretty good to really dumb depending on the specifics.

2) Money spent fighting tax evasion is good, although at some point we will run out of low hanging fruit.

3) Bill C-621 in non-accountantese: Currently it is illegal to undertake a corporate transaction primarily for tax purposes (e.g. Charging management fees from subsidiary in a low tax province to a subsidiary in a high tax province). The burden of proof in these cases is on the government. Bill C-621 broadens the scope of this provision in the Income Tax Act and shifts the burden of proof to the taxpayer. Hence my problem with it.

[cp]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

Junk poll!

I know it's a thing on this forum, but you don't accomplish much except annoying everyone by just shouting that. Do that on the US 2016 election boards, not here. You could at least have pointed out that the poll had a sample of only 375, which sets the MoE above 5%, which indeed makes it a rather dubious poll.

As if on cue, Mainstreet/Postmedia poll showing Trudeau ahead in Papineau

Libs: 41
NDP: 36
Bloc: 12
Cons: 11

These numbers seem about right, considering the strength of the NDP and Libs in the recent Quebec polling.

The cynic in me wonders whether the release of polling data like this isn't orchestrated as part of the campaign. i.e., the NDP wanted to unsettle the Libs so they arranged for a poll that would show their candidate in the lead in Trudeau's seat, but the Libs caught wind of it so they commissioned one of their own to show the opposite.

Now that I've typed it out, though, it seems more like a conspiracy theory than cynicism

[DL]

I'm sure the NDP is quite happy to have the debate over whether Trudeau is losing or just neck and neck with the NDP in his own riding just go on and on...replete with duelling polls!

[RogueBeaver]

I think this Bloc ad speaks for itself.

[Holmes]

I think this Bloc ad speaks for itself.

Ha. Sad.

[Vega]

Right on que, the NDP came out with an email which had the gyst of, "How can Justin take the fight to the Conservatives when he's losing his own seat"?

I can only imagine the oddness of a scenario in which he loses his own seat, but the Liberals make gains elsewhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Island of Montreal seems to be the only area where the Liberals are losing support, or at least not gaining as much as the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP responds: FN has entered the campaign.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Glad to see Quebec nationalists living up to their stereotype!

[RogueBeaver]

Good Maclean's on the Bloc. Only wish the obvious Socred '80 comparison was made by anyone. Finish the job, Dipper friends.

[adma]

I can only imagine the oddness of a scenario in which he loses his own seat, but the Liberals make gains elsewhere.

Ask Christy Clark.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I think this Bloc ad speaks for itself.

Oh wow. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

[2952-0-0]

Frank Graves claims Harper's dog whistle comment is working to win back lost support, and the other parties should just let it go.

[VPH]

I think this Bloc ad speaks for itself.

Seps being outright racist? Not shocked

[RogueBeaver]

Harper rallied with Wayne Gretzky tonight.

[136or142]

I can only imagine the oddness of a scenario in which he loses his own seat, but the Liberals make gains elsewhere.

Ask Christy Clark.

That's not correct.  Their was virtually no change in the gap between the NDP and the Liberals in the 2009 and 2013 elections,

The NDP gained one other seat in Vancouver and one inner suburban riding in Burnaby and the Victoria sort of suburban riding of Saanich North and the Islands while the Liberals won over several New Democrats or NDP open seats in the outer suburbs (one Surrey riding, one Delta riding) and some interior riding.

[trebor204]

Latest Seat Productions

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html


CPC: 114
NDP 114
LIB: 109

BQ 0
GRN 1


Could we see a three way tie for most seats with 112?

[Holmes]

A result that close probably means another election very soon again.

[2952-0-0]

A result that close probably means another election very soon again.

Doubt it. No one wants to be seen as responsible for forcing another election. At this occasion the probable outcome will be a coalition, where both the Liberals and NDP do all they could to be seen as equals. It would last its full term, because the only thing keeping it together will be hatred of you-know-who.

[Holmes]

There's no love or trust between Mulcair and Trudeau. It would be too fragile of a coalition.

[136or142]

A result that close probably means another election very soon again.

Could also mean a stable NDP-Liberal government, if not a formal coalition.