Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberal candidate in Calgary Nose Hill has resigned after some nasty tweets from a few years ago resurfaced.

[Hatman 🍁]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

With the NDP at 35% you could also add Mississauga Malton and Brampton Centre (and maybe even North) to the potential list.

Outside of Malton, there is no real natural NDP constituency in Mississsauga-Malton, so I don't think the NDP can win it. However, Bampton East, North and Centre do have a lot of Indo-Canadians, which means all three seats could be won.

[lilTommy]

Durham is also a potential NDP target.

With the NDP at 35% you could also add Mississauga Malton and Brampton Centre (and maybe even North) to the potential list.

Outside of Malton, there is no real natural NDP constituency in Mississsauga-Malton, so I don't think the NDP can win it. However, Bampton East, North and Centre do have a lot of Indo-Canadians, which means all three seats could be won.

The NDP now have a beach-head in the old bramalea-gore-malton riding with NDP MPP Jagmeet Singh, who was the 2011 Candidate. So I'd expect the NDP to be gunning for Brampton East and North. Martin Singh (former leadership candidate) is running in Brampton North, Brampton East candidate is Harbaljit Kahlon who is very close to Jagmeet (was his campaign chair) so look to see those two side-by-side.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how receptive the Sikh community will be of Martin Singh, who is a White convert.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is a huge problem with any polling at the riding level.

And - at the risk of sounding like a broken record - not the only one either.

[DL]

I wonder how receptive the Sikh community will be of Martin Singh, who is a White convert.

I don't claim to be an expert on the Sikh community but I am told that it is actually a big advantage for him. Apparently Sikhs think its wonderful that a WASP Canadian would convert to their religion and since it happens so rarely it actually gives him some "star quality" in their eyes.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes, knowing what I know about religious immigrant communities, it couldn't possibly hurt.

The Liberal candidate in Calgary Nose Hill has resigned after some nasty tweets from a few years ago resurfaced.

FF

[adma]

Outside of Malton, there is no real natural NDP constituency in Mississsauga-Malton, so I don't think the NDP can win it. However, Bampton East, North and Centre do have a lot of Indo-Canadians, which means all three seats could be won.

Though Centre's less monolithic and more of a salad-bowl--and it's also the part which gave the Cons' Bal Gosal his 2011 BGM victory...

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder how receptive the Sikh community will be of Martin Singh, who is a White convert.

I don't claim to be an expert on the Sikh community but I am told that it is actually a big advantage for him. Apparently Sikhs think its wonderful that a WASP Canadian would convert to their religion and since it happens so rarely it actually gives him some "star quality" in their eyes.

Yeah, I think he had a lot of support from Sikhs during his leadership race. Didn't he set up an office in Brampton? Also, let's not forget he finished with more votes than Niki Ashton.

[RogueBeaver]

CROP-QC: 47/20/16/13. NPD leads all regions, BQ could be shut out.

[lilTommy]

A Quebec Poll from CROP/LaPresse
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/19/01-4893971-sondage-cropla-presse-le-npd-domine-sans-partage.php

NDP - 47% (+11!)
LPC - 20% (-2)
BQ - 16% (-9)
CPC - 13% (-1)

Francophones
NDP - 51%
BQ - 19%
LPC - 13%
CPC - 12%

Quebec City
NDP - 45%
CPC - 23%
LPC - 18%
BQ - 13%

I wish they had a Montreal breakdown, that is where the LPC support is likely concentrated... if the vote is lower or at par with 2011 the NDP should not lose any seats, in fact might pick up 2 (Ahuntsic-Cartierville becomes more retainable and NDG-Westmount becomes more winnable)

[lilTommy]

CROP-QC: 47/20/16/13. NPD leads all regions, BQ could be shut out.

... you just beat me to it!

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't buy those Quebec City numbers.

BQ could be shut out.

This was ALWAYS a possibility.

[Krago]

I don't buy those Quebec City numbers.

BQ could be shut out.

This was ALWAYS a possibility.

The Tories may be taking a hit over the Duffy Trial and the Revelations Thereof.  I can't wait to see the next batch of national polls to see if they drop to third place.

[Phony Moderate]

So bringing back that old guy isn't working out?

[lilTommy]

So bringing back that old guy isn't working out?

Not in the least...
But really, the only who's at this point are still voting BQ are die-hard, sovereigntists who put sovereignty above everything else, no?
The BQ and NDP are similarly Social democratic, shared many of the same political positions, but for about the last 2 decades the Bloc was seen as THE voice of Quebec progressives, until 2011. Now, there is no point for the existence of the Bloc except to espouse independence. They can't fall back on the old story line that they are the best defenders of Quebec's interests since the NDP have been doing that job for 4 years rather well... with the added advantage of showing Quebec values can be pan-Canadian. And well the fact that they can form a government were the BQ would never be able to.

[DL]

Here is the full report from CROP with all the breakdowns

http://static.lpcdn.ca/fichiers/html/2266/Sondage_complet.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

So bringing back that old guy isn't working out?

No, but it may have been their only shot and revival. (Just like the Liberals' only shot was picking Trudeau, in my opinion.)

[Hatman 🍁]

"Lead Now" has released some riding polls: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf

Calgary Centre:
Cons: 44
Lib: 32
NDP: 17
Grn: 7

Edmonton Griesbach
NDP: 48
Cons: 32
Lib: 15
Grn: 5

Port Moody-Coquitlam
NDP: 54
Cons: 27
Lib: 14
Grn: 5

Vancouver Granville
NDP: 36
Cons: 30
Lib: 24
Grn: 10

Elmwood-Transcona
NDP: 39
Cons: 30
Lib: 25
Grn: 6

Fredericton
Lib: 34
Cons: 29
NDP: 26
Grn: 12

Eglinton-Lawrence
Cons: 36
Lib: 35
NDP: 25
Grn: 4

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Lib: 36
Cons: 31
NDP: 28
Grn: 5

Kitchener Centre
NDP: 33
Lib: 31
Cons: 29
Grn: 7

London North Centre
Lib: 34
Cons: 32
NDP: 27
Grn: 6

Willowdale
Lib: 37
Cons: 32
NDP: 26
Grn: 5

Saskatoon-University
NDP: 41
Cons: 34
Lib: 22
Grn: 4

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Lib: 30
NDP: 27
Cons: 23
Grn: 19

[Hatman 🍁]

Those are all ridings that went notionally Conservative in 2011. They are only leading in two.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like they've gone back and done a transposition of the 2006 and 2008 elections onto the new ridings: http://www.votetogether.ca/riding/list/

[lilTommy]

"Lead Now" has released some riding polls: https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf

Calgary Centre:
Cons: 44
Lib: 32
NDP: 17
Grn: 7

Edmonton Griesbach
NDP: 48
Cons: 32
Lib: 15
Grn: 5

Port Moody-Coquitlam
NDP: 54
Cons: 27
Lib: 14
Grn: 5

Vancouver Granville
NDP: 36
Cons: 30
Lib: 24
Grn: 10

Elmwood-Transcona
NDP: 39
Cons: 30
Lib: 25
Grn: 6

Fredericton
Lib: 34
Cons: 29
NDP: 26
Grn: 12

Eglinton-Lawrence
Cons: 36
Lib: 35
NDP: 25
Grn: 4

Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Lib: 36
Cons: 31
NDP: 28
Grn: 5

Kitchener Centre
NDP: 33
Lib: 31
Cons: 29
Grn: 7

London North Centre
Lib: 34
Cons: 32
NDP: 27
Grn: 6

Willowdale
Lib: 37
Cons: 32
NDP: 26
Grn: 5

Saskatoon-University
NDP: 41
Cons: 34
Lib: 22
Grn: 4

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country
Lib: 30
NDP: 27
Cons: 23
Grn: 19

NDP - 6
LPC - 4
CPC - 2

I'm surprised by the NDPs leads in the BC Ridings, especially those that were deemed Three-ways fights (Vancouver-Grainville) and more LPC-CPC battles (WVSCSSC - the NDP second?!) General polling in BC is showing a big move to the NDP, its becoming consistent across pollsters

Elmwood-Transcona is stronger for the NDP then I would have though given the NDPs Numbers in the province overall have been week (this is the most likely win for the NDP anyway)

Those ON Numbers can't be good for the CPC, they are at risk of losing their TO gains. It would be nice to see some rural ON riding polling from say SWON and riding level polling from the 905.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP at 27% in West Van is a bit of a surprise, considering how wealthy that area is.

The NDP is actually polling bellow their 2011 result in Elmwood-Transcona. The Liberals are eating into Tory and NDP support there. I suspect the Liberal numbers will go back down there, but how will they break?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I gather that I am required at this juncture to perform my solemn ceremonial duty and remind everyone to be careful about constituency polling. And lo, it is done.

[Hatman 🍁]

I gather that I am required at this juncture to perform my solemn ceremonial duty and remind everyone to be careful about constituency polling. And lo, it is done.

We are well aware of your opinions, Al. I think we all know to be careful. That doesn't mean we can't have fun and speculate. So, stop being a Debbie Downer.