Do you think any candidates will drop out after the FOX debate Thursday?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If so, who and why?

[SteveRogers]

Maybe Gilmore if they don't even let him into the forum.

[Senator Spark]

Yes, I do.

Fiorina, Pataki, Graham

[The Other Castro]

Should we start a drop-out watch stickied thread in the same vein as the tea leaves thread?

[Mr. Morden]

As I understand it, the CNN debate on Sept. 16 will also have a "kiddie table" event for those outside the top 10.  If they stick with their 1% threshold, then candidates like Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, and Pataki risk not making it into even the kids' event.  At that point, maybe some of them will start thinking about dropping out.

And it's not clear that any of the debates after the September one will even bother with a kiddie table.  If all the debates after that are only open to the top 10, and the top 10 becomes somewhat solidified, then some of these not-top 10 candidates will start to drop out.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Why would you drop out for no other reason than there being a debate? Even if they performed rather poorly, that alone is not reason enough to drop out. Rick Perry made what had to be one of the worst debate gaffes ever and still stayed in the race for two primaries.

They all need to stick around at least through the fall to get a better lay of the land and start making deals with the candidates who actually have a shot at the nomination.

[Likely Voter]

As I understand it, the CNN debate on Sept. 16 will also have a "kiddie table" event for those outside the top 10.  If they stick with their 1% threshold, then candidates like Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, and Pataki risk not making it into even the kids' event.  At that point, maybe some of them will start thinking about dropping out.

CNN's 'kiddie debate' 1% threshold will be a bit easier than Fox's original threshold. Candidates only need to get 1% in an average of 3 polls between July 16 and September 10th. Based on that Fiorina and Pataki have already qualified. Graham has got 1% in two polls so far, so presumably he will get one more before Sept. 10. Gilmore may be the only one to struggle as he has so far he has never broken 0% but maybe appearing in the Fox forum will get him three 1% polls.

We dont know what the criteria is for the CNBC October debate, but my bet is that it will be stricter. Once candidates start getting frozen out, then I think drop outs will begin.

[Mr. Morden]

We dont know what the criteria is for the CNBC October debate, but my bet is that it will be stricter. Once candidates start getting frozen out, then I think drop outs will begin.

Yeah, that's my thinking as well.  The media don't want to look like they're actively determining the outcome of the race by pushing people off the debate stage.  That's why the first two debates are doing this two tier business.  The candidates who are at the bottom of the polls will at least get a chance at some TV time.

But after the first two debates are over, in the future debates, the networks will say "Well, you had your chance and you're still at the bottom of the polls.  So we're not going to waste more air time on you."

That's when I see some of the candidates start to drop out.  I mean, if you don't have the $ and you're not getting any free TV time, then what's the point?

[tgards79]

Not a one.