Reuters primary polling: tracking thread.

[Mr. Morden]

So reading from the link, this is just their one day sample for July 31?

[Mr. Morden]

Unless I'm missing something, this is just their daily tracking poll, and just a one day sample for July 31, right?  They've been doing this tracking poll every day for months:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=211173.0

[Mr. Morden]

Oh wait, maybe I was wrong.  The layout of the page linked in the OP is kind of confusing.  But if you go here:

link

it does indeed look like these #s are the five day rolling average, not the one day (July 31) sample.  The sample size aggregated for those five days is 439 responses.

They also poll a 3-way matchup here:

link

Trump 35%
Bush 22%
Walker 18%

[Mr. Morden]

Here are their latest Democratic #s:

link

Clinton 45%
Sanders 13%
Biden 10%
Cuomo 2%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 1%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%

Not sure why they're still polling "candidates" who've already endorsed Clinton.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the latest from their tracking poll (I'm not going to bother starting a new thread for each update):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-22515

(Polling for Aug. 1-5.)

Dems:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 17%
Biden 14%
Cuomo 3%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%
O'Malley 1%

GOP:

Trump 24%
Bush 16%
Walker 12%
Paul 7%
Cruz 6%
Carson 5%
Huckabee 5%
Perry 4%
Rubio 4%
Christie 3%
Graham 3%
Kasich 3%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 0%

[Mr. Morden]

This Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll does seem to be pretty junky, but we are starved for post-debate polls, so just for fun, I looked at the 5-day rolling average among likely Republican primary voters for the completely pre-debate sample vs. samples that included the last few nights.

link

Here are the top 9 candidates for Aug. 1-5 (entirely pre-debate):

Trump 22%
Bush 16%
Walker 14%
Cruz 9%
Huckabee 8%
Paul 7%
Kasich 5%
Carson 5%
Rubio 5%

Then for Aug. 2-6 (four pre-debate nights plus the night of the debate itself):

Bush 22%
Trump 21%
Walker 13%
Cruz 11%
Huckabee 6%
Carson 6%
Kasich 5%
Paul 4%
Rubio 4%

Then for Aug. 3-7 (three pre-debate nights, the night of the debate itself, plus one post-debate night):

Trump 24%
Bush 22%
Walker 13%
Cruz 9%
Carson 7%
Huckabee 6%
Kasich 5%
Rubio 3%
Paul 3%

So I don't know that anyone has had a meaningful gain, other than Bush, and no meaningful decline for anyone other than Paul.  But this is probably a junky poll, so I wouldn't read much into it.

Oh, and Fiorina in the three overlapping samples is 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.8%.  Again, small enough movement that it probably doesn't mean anything.  I'll wait for real polls that give entirely post-debate #s.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

Republican support for real estate mogul Donald Trump held firm after a televised presidential debate last week in which he feuded with rivals and moderators, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday.

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, the same level of support he earned before Thursday's debate.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, which was conducted between the end of the debate on Thursday and Sunday.

Hmmmm…..oddly, they still only show the Mon-Fri sample (which, as I said in my Saturday post, is still mostly pre-debate) on their own website.  For some reason I guess they only update that once every week (even though they're producing new 5 day rolling samples every day)?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I found a full release of their post-debate polling (conducted Aug. 6-10):

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2015ReutersTracking08.10.2015.pdf

Trump 24%
Bush 12%
Carson 8%
Huckabee 8%
Rubio 8%
Walker 7%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 5%
Kasich 4%
Graham 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 1%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 0%


Who do you think did the best job in the Republican primary debate?
[Asking only Republican voters who at least heard a little about the debate]

Trump 24%
Rubio 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 8%
Cruz 8%
Huckabee 6%
Christie 3%
Paul 3%
Walker 3%
Kasich 2%

[Mr. Morden]

They also asked Republican voters if the debate gave them a more positive or more negative view of each candidate.  Here's the positive % / negative % for each:

Rubio 28/11% for +17%
Walker 25/8% for +17%
Fiorina 29/13% for +16%
Carson 26/14% for +12%
Cruz 25/13% for +12%
Huckabee 24/13% for +11%
Kasich 14/9% for +5%
Trump 30/28% for +2%
Bush 18/17% for +1%
Christie 12/18% for -6%
Paul 8/22% for -14%

[Mr. Morden]

Latest Ipsos/Reuters national tracking (Aug. 10-14):

likely Democratic primary voters

Clinton 61%
Sanders 20%
Biden 14%
Gillibrand 1%
Cuomo 1%
Webb 1%
O'Malley 1%
Chafee 0%

likely Republican primary voters

Trump 17%
Carson 14%
Bush 13%
Walker 8%
Rubio 7%
Cruz 7%
Fiorina 7%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5%
Christie 4%
Kasich 3%
Jindal 3%
Perry 2%
Santorum 2%
Pataki 0%
Graham 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Latest Ipsos/Reuters national tracking (Aug. 14-18):

likely Democratic primary voters

Clinton 60%
Sanders 17%
Biden 16%
Cuomo 2%
Chafee 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Webb 0%
O'Malley 0%

likely Republican primary voters

Trump 22%
Carson 17%
Walker 12%
Bush 9%
Huckabee 9%
Paul 5%
Fiorina 5%
Rubio 5%
Cruz 4%
Perry 3%
Kasich 3%
Christie 3%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 0%
Graham 0%

If it's just Bush/Carson/Trump…

Trump 33%
Bush 32%
Carson 28%

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't this just their tracking poll, which they update every day?  We had a thread on their results from two days ago here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218982.0

Shouldn't we just put it in one thread, rather than have a new Ipsos/Reuters thread every day?

[Mr. Morden]

Oddly, they already have data for today (it’s still only early afternoon!).  It’s a 5-day rolling average, so most of the data is pre-debate, but you can compare the small movements since two days ago to get trends since the debate:

link

Trump 38% (+2.0% since Wednesday)
Carson 13% (-1.6%)
Bush 10% (+1.0%)
Huckabee 7% (no change)
Cruz 5% (+0.1%)
Christie 5% (-0.2%)
Fiorina 4% (+2.3%)
Walker 3% (-1.1%)
Paul 3% (+0.2%)
Rubio 2% (-0.4%)
Kasich 2% (+0.3%)
Santorum 1% (-0.3%)
Pataki 1% (+0.1%)
Jindal 1% (-0.5%)
Graham 0% (-0.1%)

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s their last data release for last week (Sept. 19-23):

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14901

Democrats

Clinton 40%
Sanders 30%
Biden 15%
Cuomo 2%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee, Gillibrand, Webb 0%

3-way:

Clinton 40%
Sanders 32%
Biden 19%

GOP

Trump 30%
Carson 18%
Bush 10%
Fiorina 8%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Kasich 3%
Gilmore 2%
Paul 2%
Walker 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham, Pataki 0%

3-way:

Trump 37%
Carson 35%
Bush 25%

[Mr. Morden]

Latest GOP #s (through Sept. 29):

link

Trump 30%
Carson 13%
Fiorina 11%
Bush 10%
Paul 6%
Rubio 5%
Huckabee 5%
Cruz 5%
Christie 3%
Jindal 2%
Kasich 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki, Graham, Gilmore 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Latest (through Oct. 6):

link

Dems

Clinton 45%
Sanders 27%
Biden 17%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%
Webb, Gillibrand, Cuomo 0%

link

Republicans

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 16%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 6%
Paul 5%
Cruz 4%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 1%
Jindal 1%
Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, Santorum 0%

[Mr. Morden]

#s for Oct. 3-7:

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14945

Dems

Clinton 44%
Sanders 27%
Biden 18%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

3-way:

Clinton 42%
Sanders 29%
Biden 23%
(Huh?  The exclusion of Chafee and O’Malley from the list causes Clinton voters to defect to Biden and Sanders?)

GOP

Trump 31%
Carson 17%
Bush 14%
Fiorina 7%
Rubio 7%
Paul 4%
Cruz 4%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Kasich 1%
Pataki, Gilmore, Jindal, Santorum, Graham 0%

3-way:

Trump 39%
Carson 32%
Bush 23%

[Mr. Morden]

Latest national polling trendlines:

[Mr. Morden]

They already have the 5-day rolling average that includes the 16th, so this poll is at least 60% post-Democratic debate:

link

Dems

Clinton 52% (+5)
Sanders 27% (+3)
Biden 14% (-4)
O’Malley 2% (no change)
Chafee 1% (no change)

[#s in parentheses are comparing to the last purely pre-debate #s.]

link

GOP

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 10%
Cruz 7%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 4%
Paul 3%
Kasich 2%
Gilmore 1%
Santorum 1%
Jindal 1%
Graham 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Five day rolling average through Oct. 20:

link

Dems

Clinton 49%
Sanders 26%
Biden 15%
O’Malley 1%
Chafee 1%

link

GOP

Trump 33%
Carson 16%
Bush 10%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 6%
Fiorina 5%
Huckabee 4%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Jindal 2%
Christie 2%
Gilmore 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 1%
Pataki 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Five day rolling average through Oct. 23:

link

Dems

Clinton 47%
Sanders 31%
Biden 11%
O’Malley 2%
Chafee 1%

link

GOP

Trump 32%
Carson 19%
Bush 9%
Rubio 6%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 4%
Paul 4%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 2%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Pataki 1%
Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%

[Mr. Morden]

They have #s out now for Oct. 24-28 (so the last night of polling was the night of the debate), and it’s:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-23026
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=15018

Dems

Clinton 53%
Sanders 33%
O’Malley 2%

GOP

Trump 29%
Carson 27%
Bush 9%
Rubio 6%
Cruz 5%
Fiorina 4%
Kasich 4%
Paul 3%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 1%
Pataki 1%
Santorum, Gilmore 0%

3-way matchup:

Carson 40%
Trump 34%
Bush 21%

So Carson has made some pretty huge gains here of late.  He was trailing big in this poll just last week (not that I’m putting that much stock in this pollster).

[Mr. Morden]

Latest 5-day rolling average, covering Oct. 26-30 (meaning the sample is about half and half before and after the debate):

Dems

link

Clinton 51%
Sanders 32%
O’Malley 3%

GOP

link

Trump 30%
Carson 27%
Bush 10%
Rubio 7%
Fiorina 4%
Huckabee 3%
Cruz 3%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Christie 2%
Jindal 2%
Graham 1%
Pataki, Santorum, Jindal 0%

Comparing to the last purely pre-debate sample, there’s virtually no change:

Huckabee +1.2%
Rubio +0.7%
Carson +0.5%
Bush +0.1%
Fiorina -0.2%
Cruz -0.4%
Trump -0.9%

[Mr. Morden]

#s through Nov. 3:

Dems

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/filters/PARTY_ID_:1/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Clinton 59%
Sanders 26%
O’Malley 6%

GOP

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR130/filters/PARTY_ID_:2/dates/20151031-20151103/type/day

Trump 31%
Carson 19%
Bush 10%
Rubio 9%
Fiorina 6%
Cruz 6%
Christie 4%
Paul 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Jindal 1%
Graham, Santorum, Pataki 0%

[Mr. Morden]

#s through Nov. 6:

Dems

link

Clinton 58%
Sanders 29%
O’Malley 4%

GOP

link

Trump 28%
Carson 22%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 9%
Bush 7%
Fiorina 4%
Christie 3%
Huckabee 3%
Paul 2%
Kasich 2%
Pataki 1%
Jindal 1%
Santorum 1%
Graham 0%
Gilmore 0%