The Perfect Storm

[NHI]

"This is an election of contrasts. This is an election of polarization. This is an election unlike any we've ever seen and may never see again."



"This election is not about me, it is not about Donald Trump, it is about you, the American people." -- Bernie Sanders

"This election is about two things: Stupidity versus success. Bernie Sanders has never run a corner store. I've owned the corner stores. I've created the jobs, I'm a doer, not a talker." --  Donald Trump

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Sweet Jesus. This is gonna be good. Will there be a bit of background on the primaries?

[NeverAgain]

As Bernie is 20 points ahead of him, I hope this timeline factors in Bernie's ability to 528 stomp this loon.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Lord preserve us.

[mencken]

Yes!

[NHI]

Prologue:

Donald Trump running for President? Sure, okay. Donald Trump is running for President. He'll fan out. Donald Trump is leading in the polls? He'll be out by December. Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. Oh. My. God.

The bizarre rise of Donald Trump, from his ego driven Trump Plaza to the head of the Republican Party was one of the most surprising launches in modern American history. No believed him to have a chance, but the Donald seemed to be tapping into something. The vein of the Tea Party. An anti-establishment, Pat Buchanan-Ross Perot element not seen since the 90s. A revolt against the political class and the rise, or more the return of the silent majority.

Strangely enough, Donald Trump's rise, mirrored that of Bernie Sanders' ascendency from Independent Democratic Socialist, who had NO chance of defeating Hillary, to becoming the Democratic Nominee for President. Sanders, also basked in the fury of the left who felt Obama had not lived up to his promise, or potential. While Clinton remained the frontrunner from the start, up until the Iowa Caucuses, Bernie Sanders, like Trump was harnessing grassroots support across the country, turning it into a wave, which uprooted and defied the political establishment of either party!

For Trump, the first test of his staying power came in the first Republican Debate. Prior to, Trump had engaged in hyperbolic language and lambasted the GOP and many in the party for giving him the short end of the stick, and 'screwing over America'. It was during the debate Trump appeared calm, collected and polished. He was able to outshine his Republican rivals, leaving them in the dust as his poll numbers continued to climb.

Jeb Bush tried to appear as the concession candidate. In the midsts of the Donald Trump surge, Bush believed by appealing to the establishment and moderates, he could blunt any Trump momentum, but for Bush, he also had to contend with Chris Christie, John Kasich and to an extent Marco Rubio, who were all vying for the same group of voters as Bush. As a result his poll numbers plummeted and by December, Bush was running fourth or fifth in most polls.

Heading into Iowa, Trump remained a serious contender, amassing greater poll numbers nationally, than any of the candidates. The massive field in Iowa, allowed for Scott Walker to emerge with a sliver 15% of the vote, while Donald Trump surprised all by finishing second with 11%. The field settled heading into New Hampshire, where Chris Christie, Kasich and Rand Paul were hanging on for dear life. The Donald, spent a great deal of time and money in the state and managed to propel himself to an astonishing first place win, capturing 21% of the vote.

The victory by Trump in New Hampshire, over the likes of Christie, Kasich, Paul and Bush threw the party into panic. Jeb Bush's campaign was on life support, Paul's was effectively over, and Chris Christie headed back to New Jersey. Heading into Nevada, Walker, Bush, Rubio and Graham remained the only truly viable candidates to Trump. The Donald managed to win an even more impressive victory in Nevada, defeating Marco Rubio, who finished second (36% to 26%). 

Donald Trump, the man who would not be taken seriously was now on a path, an unstoppable path to the Republican nomination. Drawing support from the likes of Ted Cruz, Paul and other anti-establishment factions, Trump was able to build a winning coalition and defy the establishment class for the first time, really since 1964 when Barry Goldwater became the Republican Nominee.

Scott Walker, the narrow winner in Iowa would emerge as Trump's only viable competition in the end. Walker, who appealed to both the conservative and moderate wings of the party was seen as the savior by the establishment, against a Trump disaster. Though, some in the party believed the nomination of Trump was perhaps the cure the party needed to rid itself of the Tea Party element.

By the end of the nomination fight, Trump emerged with a commanding lead in the delegate count, enough to be nominated on the first ballot. He defied all political observations. He defied all political beliefs. Donald J. Trump was the Republican nominee for President, about to take on Bernie Sanders, the Independent Socialist, turned Democrat, who had become the Democratic nominee for President.

However, Donald Trump found himself leading a party, that had all but abandoned him. Mitt Romney blasted him as "someone who does not represent what the Republican Party stands for." Former Rivals Jeb Bush and Chris Christie lambasted the Donald as an "entertainer, running for the most important office in the world." Lindsey Graham called him, "a joke." To Trump supporters, this was music to their ears. An anti-establishment, self-made billionaire was now the head of the party.

A walkout occurred during Trump's nomination and people heard more boos than cheers during Trump's acceptance speech. But in typical Trump style and fashion, he addressed his critics in once swoop, "all of the people who are booing and all of the people who are leaving, they will wish they were apart of this, just wish they were apart of this moment. You know why? Because I am going to make America great again. You doubt it, just watch me."

Trump's success was largely capitalizing on voter's frustration and exasperation with Washington, DC and career politicians. Trump, presenting himself as the outsider had appeal to the Republican base, burnt out of candidates like John McCain and Mitt Romney. Trump represented a break, a new beginning, he also represented political disaster.

[NHI]

Prologue Continued

The long shot. The candidate who could not win. He's the dream candidate. He'll make some traction, but won't get far. Well, he did and he won.

Trouble began for Hillary Rodham Clinton in the summer of 2015. Enthusiasm for Bernie Sanders' campaign was growing, while Hillary was roping off reporters at parade. Bernie was talking about issues liberals and Democrats cared about, Hillary was waffling on Keystone Pipeline. The voter frustration, which made Donald Trump the Republican nominee, essentially made Bernie Sanders the Democratic Nominee.

Bernie represented authenticity, Hillary by contrast seemed scripted. Despite her cash advantage and lead in the polls, there was a tremor going on within the Democratic Party. The vibrations of the Tea Party, which reshaped the Republican Party, dribbled over to the Democrats, resulting in a grassroots movement. The fall of Clinton mirrored the fall of LBJ in 1968.

The Democratic Party had changed and Clinton attempt to borrow the language of Elizabeth Warren seemed false and staged. Bernie Sanders spoke with gusto and it resonated. By the time of Iowa, Clinton was slipping. Most national polls showed her with a narrow 5 to 6 point lead over Sanders. She managed to win the Iowa Caucuses, but with a pathetic 41 percent of the vote, to Sanders' 38 percent.

Clinton was in trouble in New Hampshire, for a long time. She seemed to be writing off the importance of the primary and its voters, with a belief that because she was a Clinton and she won the state before she could and would prevail. Taking the same approach as John McCain, in 2008, Clinton crisscrossed the state doing town hall events and making herself more open to the press and voters, but it was too late.

Another blow came right before the vote, when Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who up until that point remained neutral decided to endorse Bernie Sanders for President of the United States. Sanders' focus on the state, coupled by the endorsement of Warren and Vermont's proximity to the state helped put him over the top, and he stunned the Clintons and the political experts with a bruising 47 to 39 percent victory over Hillary Clinton.

The rest, they say is history. Hillary never recovered after New Hampshire, and her campaign went into free fall, much like Lyndon Johnson's in 1968.

If Hillary could not handle Bernie Sanders, who might she handle the Republican nominee. Democratic Party elites were in a tailspin over the Clinton collapse, and while she manage to win the South Carolina primary (44 to 40 percent) Clinton's road to the nomination was cut short as many in the Democratic party were already feeling the Bern.

Sanders vs. Trump

Sanders: 42% Trump: 33% Undecided: 25%

[Kingpoleon]

John Huntsman, Jr.(Centre-UT)/Joseph Liebermen(C-CT)!

Please!

[The Other Castro]

Excellent TL as usual.

[DKrol]

Excellent TL as usual.

[Enderman]

John Huntsman, Jr.(Centre-UT)/Joseph Liebermen(C-CT)!

Please!

Personally Id rather not have Lieberman as VP for Huntsman (His age, for one...). Possibly Huntsman/Portman or Huntsman/Heinrich. Anyways...

Excellent TL as usual.

[NHI]

1. A Third Option, Please!

The rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders as the nominees of their respective parties paved the way for a serious, legitimate third party candidate. 2016, from the start seemed like the ripe year for an independent candidate, given the prospects of A Clinton Vs. Bush Match up. Trump, even flirted with the idea of a third party bid during the Republican Primary, over his concerns that the party was not giving him his due respect.

Though, with his nomination on the right and Bernie Sanders on the left, polarization seemed to grip the country and many Americans were calling out loudly for another choice. A unity ticket, or sorts. Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was touted as a potential option, but the Republican turned Independent wrote off such ideas from the start. This left, former Republican Governor Jon Huntsman and Co-Chair of the No Labels Movement, who  seemed perfect and tailor made for a serious third party bid.

He had the money and backing of the No Partisan group and was seen as someone who could appeal to both Republicans and Democrats and Independents turned off by the sharp rhetoric of Trump and the left wing liberalism of Sanders.

Over the summer of 2016 as it became clear the Republicans and Democrats were going to nominate extremes, the Former Utah Governor was silently prepping an independent bid, building up an operation and seeking support. Shortly, after the Democratic Convention, Huntsman made his intentions clear.

"The American people are tired of the bickering. They are tired of the gridlock. They are tired of political extremes ruining the process. Both the Democrats and the Republicans share blame for the state of our country today, and now both parties have nominated two ideological extremes. On the right, Donald Trump, who's bombastic and divisive language and irate position will only further divide the nation, and on the left Bernie Sanders, the self described Democratic-socialist who would seek to turn America into Sweden. Both parties have nominated candidates, who are not the answer to America's problems. To solve the issues we face we must unite Republicans and Democrats, only by working together can we unite and restore this great country. I am up for the challenge. I want to be that candidate and I want to be a President for all the people."

Gallup Tracking Poll: August 2016

Huntsman: 34%

Sanders: 31%

Trump: 27%

The Third Way option of Jon Huntsman was embraced by many from the Republican and Democratic Parties. In keeping with his pledge to unite the country, Huntsman teamed with Former Indiana Governor and Senator, Democrat Evan Bayh as his Vice Presidential candidate. Heading into the fall, it seemed to be a battle for the ages. Polls, immediately showed a surge for the Huntsman-Bayh ticket. Americans fed up with politics as usual and turned off by the extreme nominations of Trump and Sanders responded to the third party option, though as the election got under the way, the polls as expected began to tighten.

Trump/Cruz (Republican)

Sanders/Brown (Democrat)

Huntsman/Bayh (Independent/No Labels)

[tmthforu94]

Bayh would be better on the top of the ticket, but those two have my support!

[Enderman]

Huntsman/Bayh All The Way!

[NHI]

2. Coin Flip

The arrival of Jon Huntsman and Evan Bayh was a sigh of relief for the Republican and Democratic Parties, while also a vote of confidence from the American people. The Presidential campaign of Donald Trump continued its course to disaster. Feeling neglected and abandoned by the GOP establishment Trump lashed out, attacking the party and the political process.

"It's a shame someone like me who's really rich and really successful, and yet is turned away by the party. If they got the troops behind me we'd be crushing the socialist who'd be a disaster as President, and be crushing Jon Huntsman and Evan Bayh who are total losers by the way, they're living in their father's larger and more successful shadows. I'm the only candidate in this race who's actually been and done something."

As Donald Trump continued to destroy himself; falling to third in all national polls, Bernie Sanders kept up the fight. Still drawing huge crowds and igniting the progressive base, he challenged Huntsman and Bayh; calling them defenders of the status quo. The duo responded, "I think a third option in a presidential election is far from the status quo, but call me crazy."

Huntsman receives the endorsement from former Republican Nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney. Trump, responded in his usual fashion, "that's just what I'd want, the backing of two big time losers." Huntsman called Trump out, "I think Donald Trump has proven himself further and further irrelevant. Let's stick to the issues, not petty pathetic politics."


The bipartisan ticket of Huntsman and Bayh received support from not just Republicans, but also Democrats. Senator Chuck Schumer and Dianne Fienstein endorsed the independent ticket, as did former 2016 Democratic candidates Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee. Hillary Clinton, who did not endorse Bernie Sanders after his nomination, did not publicly endorses Huntsman, but praised the ticket calling it "refreshing and needed in the process."

The concern still exists that perhaps enough splits between Democrats and Republicans over Huntsman, might narrowly elect Donald Trump or worse throw the election into the House of Representatives. Given the shaky prospects of polling, it was a very real possibility.

"The election is the greatest tossup of all time!" -- Chuck Todd

PPP Polling: Sept. 2016

Huntsman: 34%

Sanders: 30%

Trump: 24%

Undecided: 12%

New Hampshire Polling: Sept. 2016

Huntsman: 39%

Sanders: 33%

Trump: 23%

[Enderman]

Question, how did Florida poll, pre and post Huntsman announcement?

[Free Bird]

And so Atlas wets itself

[NHI]

Question, how did Florida poll, pre and post Huntsman announcement?

Sanders: 44% (+6)
Trump: 38%
Undecided: 18%

Huntsman: 36% (+6)
Sanders: 30%
Trump: 25%
Undecided: 9%

[SATW]

Huntsman/Bayh All The Way!

[NHI]

3. The Battleground 50 States

States Where Trump is Leading:

Alaska: Trump +3
Trump: 34%
Sanders: 31%
Huntsman: 29%

Alabama: Trump +7
Trump: 39%
Huntsman: 32%
Sanders: 24%

Texas: Trump +9
Trump: 40%
Huntsman: 31%
Sanders: 26%

Oklahoma: Trump +8
Trump: 42%
Huntsman: 34%
Sanders: 21%

States Where Sanders is Leading:

Vermont: Sanders +20
Sanders: 52%
Huntsman: 32%
Trump: 14%

Hawaii: Sanders +7
Sanders: 41%
Huntsman: 34%
Trump: 19%

Massachusetts: Sanders +10
Sanders: 44%
Huntsman: 34%
Trump: 19%

Rhode Island: Sanders +1
Sanders: 42%
Huntsman: 40%
Trump: 15%

Maryland: Sanders +2
Sanders: 38%
Huntsman: 36%
Trump: 21%

States Where Huntsman is Leading:

Utah: Huntsman +24
Huntsman: 50%
Sanders: 26%
Trump: 21%

Florida: Huntsman +6
Huntsman: 36%
Sanders: 30%
Trump: 25%

New Hampshire: Huntsman +5
Huntsman: 37%
Sanders: 32%
Trump: 27%

Ohio: Huntsman +2
Huntsman: 35%
Sanders: 33%
Trump: 26%

Virginia: Huntsman +3
Huntsman: 36%
Sanders: 33%
Trump: 27%

Idaho: Huntsman +7
Huntsman: 42%
Trump: 35%
Sanders: 18%

North Dakota: Huntsman +4
Huntsman: 39%
Sanders: 35%
Trump: 20%

Indiana: Huntsman +10
Huntman: 39%
Sanders: 29%
Trump: 24%

New York: Huntsman +3
Huntsman: 37%
Sanders: 34%
Trump: 26%

Pennsylvania: Huntsman +2
Huntsman: 38%
Sanders: 36%
Trump: 21%

California: Huntsman +1
Huntsman: 37%
Sanders: 36%
Trump: 22%

Colorado: Huntsman +1
Huntsman: 34%
Sanders: 33%
Trump: 24%

Arizona: Huntsman +2
Huntsman: 34%
Trump: 32%
Sanders: 29%

New Mexico: Huntsman +5
Huntsman: 40%
Sanders: 35%
Trump: 22%

Wyoming: Huntsman +6
Huntsman: 42%
Trump: 36%
Sanders: 16%

Missouri: Huntsman +1
Huntsman: 32%
Trump: 31%
Sanders; 29%

Kentucky: Huntsman +5
Huntsman: 35%
Trump: 30%
Sanders: 26%

South Carolina: Huntsman +2
Huntsman: 37%
Trump: 35%
Sanders: 23%

North Carolina: Huntsman +4
Huntsman: 34%
Sanders: 30%
Trump: 28%

New Jersey: Huntsman +4
Huntsman: 35%
Sanders: 31%
Trump: 27%

Delaware: Huntsman +3
Huntsman: 41%
Sanders: 38%
Trump: 18%

The Map: Sept. 2016

Democrat: Bernie Sanders (35)

Republican: Donald Trump (57)

Independent: Jon Huntsman (279)

Gray: Tied States

"Huntsman is in the strongest position from the start of this race. He could go all the way." -- Joe Scarborough

"If Jon Huntsman holds together the states he's carrying, and then adds one or two to compensate for a loss in one of the tighter states, a la California or New York, then he could win this election, because based on our polling if the election were held today, the states in green are where Huntsman is leading and if that were the case he'd win with 279 electoral votes." -- Chuck Todd

[tmthforu94]

This is great!

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

I'd take a hard look at Huntsman. I like Cruz but Trump is where I have my problem.

[Classic Conservative]

I'd take a hard look at Huntsman. I like Cruz but Trump is where I have my problem.

Exactly the same with me if it was Cruz/Trump I'd vote them but I'd probably vote Constitution or Libertarian.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I like how close North Dakota is. That would be crazy if it went for Sanders. I like Sanders's VP pick. Hopefully he can get Ohio. Keep it up!

And also,

And so Atlas wets itself

[NHI]

4. Sanders, Huntsman & Trump

"America is a hell hole and I'm the only one who can and will make it great again. Period."

Gallup Tracking Poll: October 2016 (Huntsman +2)

Jon Huntsman: 35%

Bernie Sanders: 33%

Donald Trump: 27%

Battleground State Poll Average: October 2016 (Huntsman +1.4)

Jon Huntsman: 34.2%

Bernie Sanders: 32.8%

Donald Trump: 28.4%