Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin Bay North is also finally in and your guess is as good as mine


% of 1st Preference Vote
19.7%
7.7%
15.4%
11.6%
9.0%
4.4%
5.2%
8.0%
17.5%
% Change from 2011 General Election
FG
LAB
FF
SF
AAA-PBP
RN
SD
GP
IA
IND
OTH
i Comparison with 2011 figures adjusted due to boundary changes

Fine Gael Labour Party Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Anti-Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit Renua Ireland Social Democrats Green Party Independent Alliance Independent OTHERS
Votes by count
Count 1
RICHARD BRUTON , FG
9792
SEÁN HAUGHEY , FF
8007
FINIAN MCGRATH , IA
5878
AODHÁN Ó RÍORDÁIN , LAB
5675
TOMMY BROUGHAN , IND
5361
DENISE MITCHELL , SF
5039
AVERIL POWER , IND
4911
JOHN LYONS , AAA-PBP
4409
CIAN O'CALLAGHAN , SD
3864
MÍCHEÁL MACDONNCHA , SF
3527
DEIRDRE HENEY , FF
3360
TERENCE FLANAGAN , RN
3205
NAOISE Ó MUIRI , FG
2868
MICHAEL O'BRIEN , AAA-PBP
2236
STEPHANIE REGAN , FG
1857
DAMIEN O'NEILL , IND
1446
DONNA COONEY , GP
1024
JIMMY GUERIN , IND
756
PAUL CLARKE , IND excluded
306
PROINSIAS Ó CONARÁIN , IND excluded
104

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, incumbent Kerry FG TD Jimmy Deenihan is in deep water, coming sixth in the first count with less than half the quota and well behind the other FG candidate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gannon out

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Donohue (FG) and O'Sullivan (IND) elected in Dublin Central

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the final first pref count is:
FG: 25.5% (-10.6)
FF: 24.3% (+6.9)
Ind: 17.2% (+4.6)
SF: 13.8% (+3.9)
Labor: 6.6% (-12.8)
AAA-PBP: 3.9% (+1.2)
SD: 3.0%
Green: 2.7% (+0.9)
Renua: 2.2%

[Vosem]

Donohue (FG) and O'Sullivan (IND) elected in Dublin Central

O'Sullivan came back from 7th place and just 8.4% of the vote to win in a three-seater, which was quite impressive (though as a nonpartisan lefty-ish incumbent type, she likely benefited from high name recognition and not really being hated by anyone). Also, Limerick County is in, and the final result there is 2 FG, 1 FF. O'Sullivan had just 1990 first-preference votes, by far the fewest of any candidate elected tonight. (The only one below 3000, in fact, and one of just 3 below 5000).

On a different note, is Dublin Central extremely underpopulated or was turnout there just extremely low? Their quota was just 5922. By comparison, in Limerick County (also a 3-seater), the quota was 11104, nearly double.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Donohue (FG) and O'Sullivan (IND) elected in Dublin Central

O'Sullivan came back from 7th place and just 8.4% of the vote to win in a three-seater, which was quite impressive (though as a nonpartisan lefty-ish incumbent type, she likely benefited from high name recognition and not really being hated by anyone). Also, Limerick County is in, and the final result there is 2 FG, 1 FF. O'Sullivan had just 1990 first-preference votes, by far the fewest of any candidate elected tonight. (The only one below 3000, in fact, and one of just 3 below 5000).

On a different note, is Dublin Central extremely underpopulated or was turnout there just extremely low? Their quota was just 5922. By comparison, in Limerick County (also a 3-seater), the quota was 11104, nearly double.

Irish electoral constituencies are drawn by population, not electorate. There are a lot of non-voters in Dublin Central, for reasons you can probably guess from its name.

[RodPresident]

Creighton is out!

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Carlow-Kilkenny finishes 2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

[Vosem]

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

And with that DBS has adjourned for the night. In Carlow-Kilkenny, the result is 2 FG, 2 FF, and 1 SF; there was some speculation early in the night that FF might hit three seats here, but that thankfully did not take place.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Much to my surprise it looks now nearly totally certain that Offaly will end 1FF 1FG 1SF and 2FF 1FG as I thought earlier. FF still getting killed on transfers.

MARCELLA CORCORAN-KENNEDY , FG Count elected
+11313
CAROL NOLAN , SF
+8785
EDDIE FITZPATRICK , FF
+8521

Only Corcoran-Kennedy's Surplus to be allocated.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why aren't surpluses automatically reallocated once they occur?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Some General Observations

Fine Gael
Best 5 constituencies:
Mayo 51%
Limerick County 37%
Dun Laoghaire 36% (Their vote here actually went up)
Meath East 34.8%
Laois 32.4%

Worst 5 constituencies:
Dublin North West 12.5% (Yet strangely they have a chance of a gain here)
Dublin Central 13.6%
Dublin South Central 14.3%
Roscommon-Galway 14.9%
Offaly 15.5%

Fianna Fail
Best 5 constituencies:
Cork South Central 41.6% (leadership bonus is real)
Carlow-Kilkenny 40.4%
Kildare South 36.4%
Offaly 35.8%
Laois 35.1%

Worst 5 constituencies:
Dublin Rathdown 10.3%
Dublin Central 10.6%
Dublin Bay South 11.5%
Dublin South Central 12.7%
Dublin North West 12.8%

Labour

For this I'm obviously excluding the constituencies Labour didn't run in: Donegal, Mayo, Cavan-Monaghan, Offaly, Limerick County and Cork North West

Best 5 constituencies:
Dublin West 15.4% (again.... leader bonus)
Wexford 14.8%
Cork East 13.2%
Kildare South 11.6%
Limerick City 11.2%

Worst 5 constituencies:
Roscommon-Galway 2.7%
Sligo-Leitrim 2.9%
Meath West 3%
Wicklow 3.8%(!!!!!!!!)
Cork South Central 4.3%

Greens
Best 5 constituencies:
Dublin Bay South 11.4%
Dublin Rathdown 10.3%
Dun Laoghaire 5.9%
Louth 4.7%
Dublin Fingal 4.6%

Not bothering doing the worst five as they got between 0.5-2% in several (mostly rural) constituencies and I don't think it would tell us much.

I'll fill in Sinn Fein, Renua and the Soc Dems later when I have more data to hand.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why aren't surpluses automatically reallocated once they occur?

They are in nearly all circumstances (unless the surplus is less than that the gap between the bottom two candidates or similar)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

A round-up as we close down for the night.  

Part I
CARLOW-KILKENNY: Complete: 2FF, 2FG, 1SF.
CAVAN-MONAGHAN: Three counts completed and 1FG elected so far.  FG, FF and SF all have a quota with the second FG candidate in pole position for the final seat.
CLARE: Eight counts completed and 1FF in.  Harty (Ind) looks well-placed and the two remaining FG candidates are in scoring position.  Poor balancing by FF could cost them a seat here.
CORK EAST: Four counts completed.  Looking like one seat each for FG, FF, Lab and SF.
CORK NORTH CENTRAL: Adjourned after four counts with 1FF in.  Looking like one each for FF, SF, FG and Alphabet Left.  Counting adjourned for the night.
CORK NORTH WEST: Eight counts completed and 1FG in.  The 3217-vote FG surplus will decide the final two seats between the two
FF candidates (Andrias is on 11141, Michael on 9228) and independent John Paul O'Shea on 8549.
CORK SOUTH CENTRAL: Adjourned after five counts.  Both FF candidates are in with FG and SF in scoring position for the other two seats.
CORK SOUTH WEST: Complete: Ind/FG/FF elected.
DONEGAL: Five counts completed and 1FF elected.  At the moment looking like 2FF, 1SF, 1FG and Pringle (Ind).
DUBLIN BAY NORTH: Adjourned after first count.  FG and FF should be on for one each, with the last three seats very difficult to call between SF, Alphabet Left, IA, Labour, Tommy Broughan and Averil Power.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin Mid West count has concluded with, as expected, Gino Kelly (Alphabet Left) and John Curran (FF) elected

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Cork North West has declared with A. Moynihan (FF) and M. Moynihan (FF) elected. Interestingly this was off the back of a Michael Creed's (FG) 3,000+ vote surplus which went about (this is very rough) 60-40 in favour of the two Fianna Fail candidates against independent John Paul O'Shea who fell 250 votes short.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part II
DUBLIN BAY SOUTH: Adjourned after five counts.  FG will get at least one here; currently in scoring position are the Greens, the second FG candidate and Labour, but FF and SF are close behind.  Renua have just been eliminated 68 votes behind SF and might ask for a recount.
DUBLIN CENTRAL: Complete, SF/FG/Ind.
DUBLIN FINGAL: Seven counts completed and 1FF/1Ind in.  FG, Lab and SF are in scoring position for the final three seats.
DUBLIN MID-WEST: Complete, FG/SF/FF/Alphabet Left elected.
DUBLIN NORTH-WEST: Seven counts completed and 1SD/1SF in.  FG are currently trailing FF for the final seat but should get transfers from Labour.
DUBLIN RATHDOWN: Complete, IA/FG/Grn elected.
DUBLIN SOUTH-CENTRAL: Seven counts completed and 1SF in.  Collins and FG are well-placed with the final seat between FF and Alphabet Left.
DUBLIN SOUTH-WEST: Thirteen counts completed and 1FF/1Alphabet Left in.  Looks like the other three seats will split 2FG/1SF.
DUBLIN WEST: Complete, FG/Lab/FF/Alphabet Left elected.
DUN LAOGHAIRE: Complete, 3FG/1Alphabet Left elected.

[jaichind]

Wow.  All tied up 25-25 in terms of seats for FG and FF.   I guess looking at remaining seats FG should have the edge and should win the seat count over FF although with a small margin.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Carol Nolan (SF) wins the final Offaly seat.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part III
GALWAY EAST: Complete, IA/FF/FG elected.
GALWAY WEST: Adjourned after seven counts.  FF will get one but poor balancing has cost them the chance of a second.  FG will get at least one.  The other three seats are between Grealish, SF, Connolly and the second FG candidate.
KERRY: Adjourned after first count.  Cap of Powah is in 7000 votes over quota and Beard of Powah looks like getting the second on his brother's transfers.  Should be FG/FF/SF for the other three seats.
KILDARE NORTH: Adjourned after four counts with 1SD in; the other three seats are looking like 2FF/1FG.
KILDARE SOUTH: Complete, 2FF/1FG elected.
LAOIS: Complete, FF/FG/SF elected.
LIMERICK CITY: Complete, FF/SF/FG/Lab elected.
LIMERICK COUNTY: Complete, 2FG/1FF elected.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH: Adjourned after three counts with 1FF in.  There is a quota each for FG and IA; the final seat is between SF, Lab, the second FG candidate (thanks to good balancing) and the second FF candidate.
LOUGH: Adjourned after four counts.  SF should get two here, FF one and FG at least one; the final seat is between the second FG candidate (again. thanks to good balancing), Labour and IA.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part IV
MAYO: Seven counts completed and 1FG is in (Enda Kenny).  FG will get at least two and FF at least one, and those two parties will dispute the final seat.
MEATH EAST: Complete, 2FG/1FF elected.
MEATH WEST: Complete, FF/SF/FG elected.
OFFALY: Complete, FF/FG/sF elected.
ROSCOMMON-GALWAY: Seven counts completed and nearly finished, with 1Ind/1IA in.  The two remaining candidates are FG 800 votes ahead of FF with votes to transfer from SF, the second FF candidate and an Alphabet Left to IA surplus; that sh0uld enable the first FF candidate to overtake FG for the final seat.
SLIGO-LEITRIM: Adjourned after four counts.  2FF/2FG/1SF looks likely here.
TIPPERARY: Adjourned after three counts with 1Ind in.  There will be at least one other independent, FF and FG should get one each and the final seat seems to be between Seamus Healy and Lab, but there's a long way to go.
WATERFORD: Complete, FF/SF/IA/FG elected.
WEXFORD: Nine counts completed and 1Lab in.  Mick Wallace should get in with 1FF and at least one FG; FF have blown their chance of a second seat with poor balancing, so the second FG candidate and SF will dispute the final seat.
WICKLOW: Adjourned after two counts with 1SD/1SF/1FG in.  The final two seats should go to FF and the second FG candidate.

[Kevinstat]

Dublin Bay South, fifth count:

4 seats
Murphy (FG) 6873
Ryan (Grn) 6605
O'Connell (FG) 5773
Humphreys (Lab) 4992
O'Callaghan (FF) 4949
Andrews (SF) 4888
Creighton (Renua) 4820 and out
Count adjourned until 10am.

What are the chances of nobody passing the quota (what is it, btw?  I'm too lazy to go back and check) in the sixth count, which would mean all four winning candidates would be elected in the seventh (some probably without reaching the quota)?

[Kevinstat]

SLIGO-LEITRIM: Adjourned after four counts.  2FF/2FG/1SF looks likely here.

Sligo-Leitrim's a four-seater.

Now that I'm thinking of Sligo-Leitrim, does anyone know where the "I V(ot)E INCAVAN !" (why the voter didn't make it end with "IN CAVAN!" is a mystery to me, but clearly the person was not a typical individual anyway) vote was from?  In Cavan obviously (although you never know, I guess), but say in the part of the district east (well, southeast) of Belturbet, perhaps?  I'd hope folks in genuine West Cavan would have some sympathy with folks in neighboring Leitrim and acknowledge that there weren't really good alternatives that would have kept them in C-M, but a voter who's willing to cast a void ballot to make a point isn't likely to have considered that or be moved by it if he/she had (my guess is it was a guy, but we'll never know, unless that voter took a picture of his ballot in the voting booth (with his phone) or before turning in his/her absentee ballot, if they even have absentee ballots there).