Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[SunSt0rm]

Coalitions are being explored now.

- VVD wants majority coalition in both chambers consisting of CDA+D66 and a fourth which could include CU, GL, PvdA or SP. Important subjects for VVD: tax cuts, energytransition (!), investing in security.
- GL wants a christian progressive coalition which would consists of CDA+D66+GL+SP+PvdA+ CU or PvdD I guess. important subjects for GL: fighting inequality, environmentalism and humane refugee policy.
- CDA says a majority coalition around VVD has to be formed, says a chrisitian progressive coalition is not logic. Important subjects: immigration & integration, reform labor market and restoring values and norms.
- D66 wants VVD+CDA+D66+GL
- PVV wants VVD+PVV+CDA+50Plus+SGP+FvD. He says it would be undemocratic to ignore the second largest party

Furthermore, Plasterk, PvdA interior ministers, suggests that the PvdA group in parliament should merge with the GL fraction. PvdA leader Asscher rejects that idea

[SunSt0rm]

VVD+CDA+D66+GL will probably rejected as the VVD+CDA+D66+CU+SGP now has a majority. Before the election the second option was not really considered as it did not have a majority in the polls.

D66 wants VVD+CDA+D66+GL
VVD and CDA probably wants VVD+CDA+D66+CU

The first option will probably be explored first as GL is the biggest winner of the election. Its in everyone interest that this option will be investigated first before the second option will be explored. Pechtold can tell his supporters that he tried to include GL, but was not possible and that CU is unfortunately now the only option creating support for his decision. VVD, CDA and GL can show that they tried to respect the election result but it was impossible due to the differences which would create relief in all three parties. CU has gained its strength in the second negotiation phase. One of the biggest mistake of the previous coalition is that the coalition was formed too quick, which created the idea that the parties especially PvdA were too easily willing to give up their stance. The first weeks will therefore be wasted just to create drama.

[DavidB.]

Another thing is that Buma wants a majority coalition, so probably no VVD-CDA-D66 minority government. Coalition explorer Schippers announced she will not return in a new government.

Wonder how long the VVD-CDA-D66-GL talks will last. A waste of time, since GL will end up not doing it anyway -- either that or Jesse Klaver is more delusional than I thought. A coalition with D66 and CU will be "green" anyway, though.

[mvd10]

I guess we can cross Schippers of the list in that case. I agree that it's likely going to be Dijkhoff. Zijlstra might have burned some bridges when he allegedly almost blew up the cabinet during the ''bed, bad en brood'' crisis.

This reminds met of the 2003 formation. Most people wanted a CDA-PvdA coalition (the 2 big winners of the election) but the CDA elites wanted CDA-VVD with either D66 or CU/SGP. Before negotiations on a CDA-VVD-D66 cabinet could start the CDA-PvdA negotiations had to fail. But I'm pretty sure both the VVD base and the party elite prefer CU over GL this time. CU thinks VVD-CDA-D66 should talk to GL first though. Probably to make sure their own negotiation position is stronger. If VVD-CDA-D66-GL fails (very likely) VVD-CDA-D66-CU is the only serious option, which strengthens CU's position.

[DavidB.]

PvdD want VVD-GL-D66-CU-PvdD. SGP are interested in a right-wing option with the PVV. So are 50Plus, but only if the pension age will be 65 again. Of course, none of this is going to happen, but still interesting.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar. 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar. 

yes, I guessed that; but seeing as I'm pretty sure the VVD were very divided about whether they should close down the coal plants they (stupidly) built very recently.

[Zinneke]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar.  

Encourage innovation vs technical-specific proposals (read : regulation) is the trade-off.

[DavidB.]

According to Nederlands Dagblad, there are the final results including numbers of raw votes. Final turnout would be 81.3% (+6.9%).

[DavidB.]

Turnout among young people (18-24) down from 77% to 67%; lower educated youths stayed home. Turnout among lower educated youths was 45%, among higher educated youths 85%. Lower educated youths are a PVV demographic, but if they're not even mobilized when turnout is over 80% nationally, the question is what, if anything, will motivate them to go and vote? Damn youths throwing away our future by staying home! 82% of lower educated people and 95% (!) of higher educated people who are 55 and older turned out.

[adma]

One thing I'm wondering about: which municipality would have seen the lowest "winning" share (and on behalf of which party)?

[Zinneke]

One thing I'm wondering about: which municipality would have seen the lowest "winning" share (and on behalf of which party)?

From my basic search it seems like its Leewaarden with 15% for the VVD. Rotterdam and Maastricht also delivered pretty small pluralities, close to 16%. A testament to the diversity of types of cultural class you can find in these cities.

On the subject I'm wondering if they release excel sheets of the vote share per gemeente like in Belgium.

[freek]

On the subject I'm wondering if they release excel sheets of the vote share per gemeente like in Belgium.

Sure. Maybe not today though. The Kiesraad is planning to upgrade its results website sometime this year, not sure if results will still be added to the old website.

Results per municipality 1918 - 2012 you can download here: http://www.verkiezingsuitslagen.nl/Na1918/Verkiezingsuitslagen.aspx?VerkiezingsTypeId=1
(select a year, do not select a province, click 'csv' bottom right).

[freek]

According to Nederlands Dagblad, there are the final results including numbers of raw votes. Final turnout would be 81.3% (+6.9%).

I think that's not the real final result, but all preliminary results added up. When I add up all final results from the electoral districts, this is my result (not sure if completely correct though):

Code:

VVD			2238256
PvdA			599795
PVV			1372821
SP			955730
CDA			1302156
D66			1285837
ChristenUnie	356277
GroenLinks          959481
SGP			218950
PvdD			335150
50PLUS		327160
Ondernemersp.	12569
VNL			38215
DENK	                216026
Nieuwe Wegen	14365
Forum voor Dem  187179
Burger Beweging   5221
Vrijzinnige P.	2938
GeenPeil		4944
Piratenpartij       	35502
Artikel 1		28708
Niet Stemmers	6026
Libertarische P.     1491
Lokaal in de K.	6858
Jezus Leeft     	3099
StemNL		527
MenS/BIP/VR	726
VDP			177

[DavidB.]

How is it possible that some parties have more votes according to ND than in the final results as calculated by you?

[Tender Branson]

Guys, let's just wait for the final results from the national election commission.

The figures are out in 1 hour.

[Zinneke]

How is it possible that some parties have more votes according to ND than in the final results as calculated by you?

Votes from abroad?

[freek]

How is it possible that some parties have more votes according to ND than in the final results as calculated by you?

Errors in reporting in preliminary results I guess. Or I made a typo somewhere.

[DavidB.]

81.9% turnout. Nice.

[DavidB.]

Final results:

[Tender Branson]

Seems to be 55-42-3 Right/Left/Center.

[Tender Branson]

D66 won the postal vote (ca. 60.000 votes), but only by a 0.4% margin against the VVD.

[DavidB.]

This means the percentage of women in parliament has decreased again: from 40.7% (61) in 2010 and 38.7% (58) in 2012 to 36% (54) in 2017. The elected candidate with the fewest votes is Léon de Jong (PVV): 291 votes; 1.760.117 people voted for Mark Rutte. 10.563.456 people cast their vote this year, over than a million more than in 2012, when only 9.462.223 went to the polling station.

[SPQR]

Oh God, Djisellbloem is even more stupid than I thought...in an interview to German newspaper FAZ he said:
"During the crisis of the euro, the countries of the North have shown solidarity with the countries affected by the crisis.
As a Social Democrat, I attribute exceptional importance to solidarity. [But] you also have obligations. YOU CAN NOT SPEND ALL THE MONEY ON DRINKS AND WOMEN and then ask for help."

Now all of the European socialists want him out, not sure whether in Netherlands there has been the same reaction.