Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

http://www.1limburg.nl/den-haag-doet-te-weinig-voor-limburg?context=topstory

http://atlanticsentinel.com/2017/02/nativist-freedom-party-draws-support-from-dutch-periphery/

Interesting article about how the centre-periphery debate rages on in the Netherlands, despite it being a small, unitary country. Limburg in particular was known for representing the fairly simple political divide between rural CDA catholics, and urban industrial PvdA. Brabant and Groningen were in similar situations, but with the added factor of their own communist parties (I forget whether it was the CPN that always used to get insane results in parts of the North even when SP started to monopolise the far left).

Now these regions and especially their industrial rust belts, have a clear trend towards the anti-EU parties (PVV and SP), but which helped also by a decreasing population due to a much more flexible labour market than in Belgium for example. This leaves the have-nots behind, who inevitably vote for the anti-globalist parties.

It will be interesting to see as I mentioned previously whether they also vote for local candidates more that the other richer regions. Limburg and Friesland also have strong regional identities, followed by Groningen (mainly concerned with preserving their gas) and North Brabant. Here is an album made by a redditor I think of where the candidates are from in each party. VVD, GL D66 and PvdA in that order have reputations of being Holland-centric.

http://imgur.com/a/Mo4I0

(does this forum still discriminate against imgur links?

[mvd10]

We should not forget that 21 seats is barely half of the seats the CDA used to get in the 2000s

[DavidB.]

EenVandaag today (post-debate) has VVD +2, PVV +2, CDA +1, GL +1, VNL +1, Pirates (!!!!!) +1; PvdD -3, D66 -1, SP -1, SGP -1, Denk -1, Forum -1. They admit Denk/Forum/VNL/Pirates may be due to sampling: it seems very unlikely the Pirates are really at 1 seat. PVV and VVD going up is probably a reversal to the mean: their 22 seats in last week's poll were probably within the MoE, but clearly too low. I don't think PVV and VVD have actually gone up. Most other changes are insignificant, except for the PvdD's loss. While I don't think they were truly at 7 seats last week, I do believe they lost some support due to Thieme's abysmal debate performance.

[DavidB.]

... but this is Peil.nl. PVV -2, PvdA -1. VVD +1, GL +1, SP +1. Doubt there is really anything going on, but "throw it in for the average."

[Vosem]

I really want Ancilla to win a seat. I think I'd accept a large PVV over-performance if it meant Ancilla got a seat.

I could see Pirates benefiting off GroenLinks deflation, actually, so hopefully that's what's going on

[Zinneke]

I really want Ancilla to win a seat. I think I'd accept a large PVV over-performance if it meant Ancilla got a seat.

I could see Pirates benefiting off GroenLinks deflation, actually, so hopefully that's what's going on

Well, if we're going for massive conjectural thought i'd say the Pirates, like DavidB has already alluded to, benefit mainly from protest voters of PvdD who are looking for a cokie anti-establishment left-cultural party with a worthwile policy movement. I for one always had a preference for the Party of the Future (http://www.pvdt.nl/ - you will be able to tell their seriousness by the images).

But yeah Ancilla needs a seat. Not that you can't have eye candy in larger parties in the Lowlands...

[Vosem]

It's not even just Ancilla as eye candy; I really like the idea of pirate politics in general and want it to become a stronger force generally, and I'm also enough of a Latin nerd that I innately sympathize with someone who has changed their name to a word in Latin (I have an acquaintance I met attending the US's national Classics convention in 2014 who did this, though she chose Aquila as her name rather than the more lulzy Ancilla).

I've spoken enough with David that I've put aside the idea that were I Dutch I'd vote D66 (which was what I'd thought at the beginning of this campaign), but I think this is a case where VVD is my head's choice but the heart wants Pirates. Shame the votes aren't transferable, like in Australia; it would make decisions in a system like this a lot easier.

[freek]

http://www.1limburg.nl/den-haag-doet-te-weinig-voor-limburg?context=topstory

http://atlanticsentinel.com/2017/02/nativist-freedom-party-draws-support-from-dutch-periphery/

Interesting article about how the centre-periphery debate rages on in the Netherlands, despite it being a small, unitary country. Limburg in particular was known for representing the fairly simple political divide between rural CDA catholics, and urban industrial PvdA. Brabant and Groningen were in similar situations, but with the added factor of their own communist parties (I forget whether it was the CPN that always used to get insane results in parts of the North even when SP started to monopolise the far left).

It was the NCPN (i.e. New CPN). At the time that SP started to become more than a local group from North Brabant, CPN already merged into GroenLinks.

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By far the most successful region in electing regional candidates outside list order is Twente (Eastern part of Overijssel province). 2012: Pieter Omtzigt, 2010: Sabine Uitslag, 1998: Annie Schreijer. All three were CDA MPs.

[DavidB.]

I think Rogier is spot on when it comes to the causes of the increase of PP (is that really the abbreviation we're going to use, EenVandaag?) support if that is actually what is happening. Switching from PvdD to the Pirates is not too large a step.

I don't give a damn about Ancilla (who overslept for a radio interview at a popular morning show yesterday, pissing off the DJ) and her looks, but I will always have a weak spot for the Pirates for the simple reason that privacy is incredibly important. While SP/PvdD/GL/D66 typically vote the right way on these issues, none of them take the effort to actively make a point of opposing the way our privacy slowly but surely gets eroded. This is barely on the political agenda, and it needs to be politicized because it is happening and it is bad. That said, I would obviously never vote for them (the fact that their non-privacy/internet-related agenda is absolutely terrible far-leftist crap doesn't help), and there are many like me who may sympathize with their ideas but would never vote for them, so perhaps I am personally guilty of perpetuating this cycle too. But a vote for them is a wasted vote anyway. They won't get in.

[jeron]

I think Rogier is spot on when it comes to the causes of the increase of PP (is that really the abbreviation we're going to use, EenVandaag?) support if that is actually what is happening. Switching from PvdD to the Pirates is not too large a step.

 a vote for them is a wasted vote anyway. They won't get in.

True. EenVandaag doesn't have a real poll anyway so one seat in their survey doesn't really mean that much.

[DavidB.]

Today, the I&O (junk) poll has GL -3, CU -3, PVV -2, VVD -1, PP -1; D66 +3, SP +2, CDA +1, Forum +1, VNL +1, PvdD +1, 50Plus +1. This would mean the combined right/religious parties would get 10 seats fewer than in 2012, which is not believable to me. I&O structurally underpolling the right compared to other pollsters is a big red flag to me. Of course, all the others could be wrong too, but I doubt it. That said, the trends (PVV down, VVD down, GL down, CDA up, D66 up, Forum up, SP up) seem correct to me, since this view is corroborated by other polls.

True. EenVandaag doesn't have a real poll anyway so one seat in their survey doesn't really mean that much.

Why do you think De Stemming is not a real poll?

[jeron]

New poll by TNS NIPO/Kantar. VVD now the largest party.

VVD 26 (-1)
PVV 24 (-4)
D66 21 (+2)
CDA 17(-)
SP 15(+2)
GL 14 (+1)
PvdA 12 (-)
50plus 6 (-1)
CU 6(-)
PvdD 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (-)
Denk 2 (-)
FvD 1 (+1)

[SunSt0rm]

Ipsos poll is suggesting a possible VVD/PVV/CDA three way race instead of D66

VVD 26 (-2)
PVV 23 (-1)
CDA 21 (+2)
D66 17 (=)
GL 14 (+1)
SP 13 (+1)
PvdA 11 (-1)
CU 7 (+1)
50+ 6 (=)
SGP 5 (=)
PvvD 4 (-1)
Denk 1 (=)
FvD 1 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

[Dutch Conservative]

Ipsos poll is suggesting a possible VVD/PVV/CDA three way race instead of D66

VVD 26 (-2)
PVV 23 (-1)
CDA 21 (+2)
D66 17 (=)
GL 14 (+1)
SP 13 (+1)
PvdA 11 (-1)
CU 7 (+1)
50+ 6 (=)
SGP 5 (=)
PvvD 4 (-1)
Denk 1 (=)
FvD 1 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

Wow, SGP on 5 seats! Quite some differences between the Ipsos and TNS Nipo poll, for example CDA/D'66. At my work I can notice the CDA surge, but I cant say the same for D'66 so I find a D'66 surge hard to believe.

In the Ipsos poll a centerright cabinet is a possibility: VVD+CDA+D'66+CU+SGP = 26+21+17+7+5 = 76. Hard to believe this combination is ever going to happen though.  Other coalitions seem even more distant.

[Zanas]

First I was like "Huh! Funny, "eye-candy Ancilla", like that model on dA", and then I was like "Wait, she is that model on dA !?"

[DavidB.]

Baudet tonight stated that "our elite is homeopathically mixing us with all other peoples so that there will never be a Dutchman anymore", which has sparked some Twitter outrage.

[freek]

Baudet tonight stated that "our elite is homeopathically mixing us with all other peoples so that there will never be a Dutchman anymore", which has sparked some Twitter outrage.

Which is a rather interesting thing to say for someone named Thierry Baudet, so I guess I am missing some context.

[DavidB.]

He apparently later stated that he was talking about values, not about ethnicity.

Ipsos poll is suggesting a possible VVD/PVV/CDA three way race instead of D66

VVD 26 (-2)
PVV 23 (-1)
CDA 21 (+2)
D66 17 (=)
GL 14 (+1)
SP 13 (+1)
PvdA 11 (-1)
CU 7 (+1)
50+ 6 (=)
SGP 5 (=)
PvvD 4 (-1)
Denk 1 (=)
FvD 1 (=)
VNL 1 (=)

Ipsos say it is remarkable that voters are not becoming more certain of their choice. Six days before the election, 46% of those who expect to vote have a unique preference for one party, 54% don't. 39% have a preferred party but still consider to vote for one or multiple other parties; another 15% intend to vote, but do not have a preference yet. Voters have not become more certain of their choice over the last week, which could partly be attributed to Wilders' absence in the debates giving voters the impression that they are missing some information necessary to make a choice. Political scientist Kees Aarts (Rijksuniversiteit Groningen), who is specialized in turnout and non-voters, expects turnout to be lower than in 2012 due to the absence of a clear election theme. In 2010 and 2012, the election revolved around the economy, and in 2006 social security and the welfare state was the main theme. What's more, it seems that there will be no real two-horse race this time around.

[DavidB.]

Parties in all serious polls (which excludes LISS):
Ipsos, Kantar, I&O, Peil, EenVandaag
VVD: 26, 26, 24, 25, 24
PVV: 23, 24, 20, 23, 24
CDA: 21, 17, 16, 21, 20
D66: 17, 21, 20, 17, 16
GL: 14, 14, 17, 18, 16
SP: 13, 15, 14, 14, 15
PvdA: 11, 12, 14, 9, 12
CU: 6, 6, 5, 5, 7
50Plus: 6, 6, 5, 5, 5
PvdD: 4, 3, 6, 5, 4
SGP: 5, 3, 4, 3, 3
DENK: 1, 2, 2, 2, 1
FvD: 1, 1, 2, 2, 1
VNL: 1, 0, 1, 1, 1
PP: 0, 0, 0, 0, 1

Remarkable, by the way, how the differences between the pollsters are now much smaller than, say, a year ago. Herding?

[SunSt0rm]

[Zinneke]

Baudet tonight stated that "our elite is homeopathically mixing us with all other peoples so that there will never be a Dutchman anymore", which has sparked some Twitter outrage.

Which is a rather interesting thing to say for someone named Thierry Baudet, so I guess I am missing some context.

Is Baudet of Belgian elite origin ?


He's in the headlines, that's all that matters. He can then moderate his stance like above for people to say "well yeah he has a point". Wilders was effective at this until the mask he wore
, to attract the initial attention, essentially became his manifesto. That's the danger. The PVV manifesto c. 2010-2012 wasn't that bad.

I think the FvD will get 2 seats.

[DavidB.]

I'm considering voting for them. 60% chance I vote for Gidi. 40% chance I vote FVD. If the PVV f**k up this time, they are worthless and need to be replaced.

[ApatheticAustrian]

so...this guy is trying to out-culturalist wilders? not sure there is such a big constituency for that message, as long as wilders isn't going down in flames.

[freek]

Baudet tonight stated that "our elite is homeopathically mixing us with all other peoples so that there will never be a Dutchman anymore", which has sparked some Twitter outrage.

Which is a rather interesting thing to say for someone named Thierry Baudet, so I guess I am missing some context.

Is Baudet of Belgian elite origin ?

If a maths teacher from Braine-le-Comte / 's-Gravenbrakel in Hainaut, on the run for Napoleonic conscription, is elite then yes.

[Zinneke]

Baudet tonight stated that "our elite is homeopathically mixing us with all other peoples so that there will never be a Dutchman anymore", which has sparked some Twitter outrage.

Which is a rather interesting thing to say for someone named Thierry Baudet, so I guess I am missing some context.

Is Baudet of Belgian elite origin ?

If a maths teacher from Braine-le-Comte / 's-Gravenbrakel in Hainaut, on the run for Napoleonic conscription, is elite then yes.

Don't forget that any French speaker for Flamingant is the elite.

https://qz.com/928684/the-dutch-far-rights-election-donors-are-almost-exclusively-american/

Meanwhile, DavidB insists Wilders isn't a shill for the neo-cons he has courted in Washington. But national sovereignty lol.