Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Do you think Monasch will do like Mélenchon in France or Wesphaël here (before he got arrested for the murder his wife) and set up a personality based party that tries to squeeze itself in between the traditional centre-left party, the greens and the traditional communist party?

I hope so, as this election is virtually lost for progressives. What we need is a rigorous example of how factionalism and lack of leadership (post-Samsom|Hollande 2012) is just a major issue across Europe. Makes me happy that we at least have someone with balls and vision like Magnette in Belgium, even if he chose the wrong party. Monasch will either bring this factionalism to the forefront or turn out to be a strong leader of the Dutch left.

[mvd10]

Dutch prosecutors have demanded that Geert Wilders be fined 5000 euros for his fewer Moroccans speech. In 2014 after the local elections Wilders asked his voters whether they want more or fewer Moroccans. His supports chanted fewer and he said that he would take care of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_YEpoG5N8k

[SunSt0rm]

50+ has overtaken PVDA, there is no sign of positive effect yet of the PVDA leadership election in the polls

[Zinneke]

wrong thread

EDIT : Hijacking my sh**tpost to laugh at Wilders wanting to ban Sylvana Simons - this is the man, as Jesse Klaver has pointed out, that says he is being silenced in the media.

[DavidB.]

wrong thread

EDIT : Hijacking my sh**tpost to laugh at Wilders wanting to ban Sylvana Simons - this is the man, as Jesse Klaver has pointed out, that says he is being silenced in the media.

The irony is just stunning.

[DavidB.]

Today a partial burqa ban was passed in parliament. Burqas and niqabs (as well as balaclavas and motor helmets, in order to avoid making it look like anti-Islamic legislation) will be banned in "education and healthcare institutions, government buildings and on public transport", Interior Minister Plasterk (PvdA) said. The burqa ban was a VVD election promise in 2012. It still has to pass the senate. The fine would be 405 euros. All parties except GroenLinks, D66 and DENK voted for it.

[DavidB.]

Tomorrow, a referendum will take place in Rotterdam on the municipality's construction plans. The municipality government (Livable Rotterdam-D66-CDA) wants to replace 20,000 cheap housing units by more expensive houses. There are currently 168,000 houses in the cheapest category, whereas only 125,600 households have a right to one. This means Rotterdam will continue to attract lower incomes, whereas the municipal government seeks to keep young professionals in the city. As a consequence of the plan, some people would have to move (sometimes to some of the poorer Rotterdam suburbs). The city government says the plan will improve the quality of living in poor neighborhoods because of gentrification.

The Woonreferendum committee, founded by the SP, initiated the referendum through an official petition because it opposes the plans. The main opposition against the plan comes from the SP and trade unions. Turnout has to be over 30% for the referendum to be valid. This threshold is unlikely to be reached given that Rotterdam has notoriously low turnout in every election (24.4% in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement referendum earlier this year). However, alderman Schneider (Livable Rotterdam, by far the largest party in the city and a "PVV light") says he would not ignore a "no" and will look for potential ways to amend the plan if voters reject it.

[Angel of Death]

The latest peilingwijzer:

And here is an online tool to find the theoretical majority coalitions for a given distribution of seats. The (ideological) coherence of these will also be scored closer to the election.

The polls are indeed not looking good in terms of governability.

[DavidB.]

Yes, it now definitely appears that the PVV spike is due to the attention for Wilders' trial, which, according to polls, most people dislike and view as an attempt to silence him. Interestingly, this seems to have hurt the CDA more than the VVD, though both have gone down.

[DavidB.]

Turnout in the Rotterdam referendum was 12.2% at 5:15 PM, lmao.

[Zinneke]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

[Mike88]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

Could there be tactical voting to VVD from CDA, D66 and 50 plus to prevent a PVV victory?

[SunSt0rm]

Could be, but nobody is expecting that the PVV will ever form a government let alone Wilders be PM.
Next, the voters of 50plus are closer to the PVV than to the VVD. 50Plus and PVV wants to lower the retirement age and ease the rules for Pension Funds, while VVD wants to increase the retirement age and dont want to ease the rules as it would harm the younger generation

[DavidB.]

50Plus will also go down before the election, and I expect many of their voters to ultimately opt for PVV and SP.

The Rotterdam referendum: 71% against, 26% for with 16.9% turnout, so threshold not reached. Alderman Schneider apparently said he could not ignore a "no" vote if the threshold was reached, but will now proceed with the initial plans.

[Zinneke]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

Could there be tactical voting to VVD from CDA, D66 and 50 plus to prevent a PVV victory?

There is historical precedent of it becoming a two horse race to block the other's rise like 2012. But I think a lot of people felt let down by the subsequent government formation. I think that like 2012 narratives will matter though, and CDA just seem to have no narrative to this election yet, just a capability of getting out their voters and engaging in clientelism in the rural South.

[DavidB.]

This is the most recent (November 29) EenVandaag poll, which I think is the best one. Up/down is compared to last month's poll.

PVV 31 (+3)
VVD 25 (-)
SP 16 (-1)
GroenLinks 15 (+6)
CDA 15 (-4)
D66 12 (-3)
PvdA 12 (-)
50Plus 9 (+1)
CU 7 (-1)
PvdD 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (-1)
VNL 1 (-)
DENK 1 (+1)

Yesterday two motions related to Israel were discussed and voted on. Together with Tunahan Kuzu (DENK) and Sjoerd Sjoerdsma (D66), Harry van Bommel, the SP's foreign affairs spokesman who will leave parliament after the election, introduced the umpteenth motion on recognizing "Palestine", which failed by 76-71 due to our own Freiwall consisting of VVD, CDA, PVV, CU, SGP and VNL. The PVV introduced a motion on recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moving the embassy, which failed by a larger margin. Only PVV, CU, SGP and VNL voted for it.

There has been some discussion on a tweet by Tunahan Kuzu (DENK) after the vote on recognizing "Palestine". A controversial habit of DENK MPs has been singling out the votes of Muslim MPs in other parties and subsequently name and shame them on the internet in YouTube videos and tweets. In the past, they did this to highlight Turkish Dutch MPs' perceived "treason" on the Armenian genocide and when certain Muslim MPs in SP and PvdA voted against increasing the security level of mosques. This time, Kuzu tweeted to CDA MP Mustafa Amhaouch that he is "partly responsible for the fact that Palestine is not recognized today." Amhaouch responded by stating that while DENK pretends to be the first and foremost opponent to ethnic profiling, they themselves are exhibit A of the practice themselves. Of course, this is an incredibly smart strategy for DENK that will doubtlessly pay off on election day.

[rob in cal]

  Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?

[DL]

  Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?

I'm guessing that the PVV is like the similar Danish People's Party - the last thing they want is to actually be in government and have to make real, live decisions. They much prefer being able to scream and yell form outside - so even if they are the largest party - they would decline to even try to lead a government...and seriously that other party in the Netherlands wants to be be complicit in making Geert Wilders the PM?

[DavidB.]

Assuming the PVV does win a small plurality of seats, and that Wilders tries to form a government, what other parties would be potential coalition allies, or are there any?

None. Wilders burned all his bridges when the Rutte-I government collapsed and his party radicalized. Any coalition formation attempt by the PVV would be either extremely short-lived (after which the VVD gets to form a government), or some parties would engage in a useless ritual dance which could take a while but eventually end up failing anyway -- probably the former. This is a likely outcome of the election, imo.

I'm guessing that the PVV is like the similar Danish People's Party - the last thing they want is to actually be in government and have to make real, live decisions. They much prefer being able to scream and yell form outside - so even if they are the largest party - they would decline to even try to lead a government...and seriously that other party in the Netherlands wants to be be complicit in making Geert Wilders the PM?

Uh, what? The Danish People's Party have been making real life decisions for most of their existence, since between 2001 and 2011 and from 2015 until now they have been necessary to uphold various right-wing Danish governments (which would otherwise have a majority against them) through informal demand and supply deals. Of all radical right-wing parties in Europe they may be the most "establishmentarian", which actually caused a new party to manoeuvre itself to the DPP's right.

It is very true that the PVV have much fear of actual power and would probably like to remain in opposition (or lead a government, which is totally unrealistic), but that makes them very much unlike the Danish People's Party, who have not truly been in opposition for most of their existence.

[DL]

What I mean is that the DPP has only been willing to support a rightwing coalition from outside. They refuse to have actual cabinet seats in a coalition government and in the last Danish election even though they actually had the largest number of seats of any of the "non-socialist" parties - they had no interest in actually leading the government having their leader be PM - they prefer to sit outside and just have influence

[DavidB.]

What I mean is that the DPP has only been willing to support a rightwing coalition from outside. They refuse to have actual cabinet seats in a coalition government and in the last Danish election even though they actually had the largest number of seats of any of the "non-socialist" parties - they had no interest in actually leading the government having their leader be PM - they prefer to sit outside and just have influence

Well, it is true that DF have not been part of the government yet, but there is a huge difference between a party that supports governments from the outside, strikes deals (including ones that may be painful electorally) and takes responsibility on the one hand and a party that is truly in the opposition all the time (except for the short-lived Rutte-I attempt, that is) on the other hand. "Screaming and yelling from the outside" and refusing to make "real life decisions" may be characteristics that are applicable to the PVV, but they are certainly not applicable to DF, even if they have avoided a certain type of responsibility up to now.

It is said that during the negotiations for our own "Danish experiment" in 2010 Wilders was in touch with DF and got information for the best negotiating strategy, etc. PVV and DF were close. Nowadays they are not at all close anymore: the parties the PVV cooperate with internationally are FN, FPÖ etc., quite a different type of RRWPs. Under the Rutte-I government there was so much obstructionism going on by the CDA, and Wilders tanked in the polls. When the government collapsed, however, things changed. At that point, I assume, he thought "never again"and decided to focus on shifting the Overton window and going for the long game (a poor strategic choice) -- that is, if he has had any strategy. It is obvious that if he wants to exert influence in a more traditional way (i.e. by being part of a government or sustaining a minority government from the outside), he should moderate his tone. However, he has never done that and he is unlikely to ever do it, I think.

[DavidB.]

Unrest in GroenLinks: incumbent MP Liesbeth van Tongeren, former director of Greenpeace Netherlands and spokesperson on green issues/the environment/climate issues, has been deselected. She was told that her positioning on this issue was "good, but not good enough." Van Tongeren said that she would have accepted this if the board had proposed a candidate with a clearly better "green" profile, but this turned out not to be the case. Many were surprised by the events, and politicians of various parties came to Van Tongeren's defense, saying her hard work leads to real results.

Now Van Tongeren seeks to be elected to the list by the party membership. Several GL branches, such as in Zeeland and in Groningen (where Van Tongeren was active in the campaign against natural gas winning, a hot topic because of the earthquakes in the area), have now endorsed Van Tongeren, to the dismay of the national party organization: GL chair Marjolein Meijer sent out an e-mail in which she stated that local branches are not allowed to do so because candidates "deserve a level playing field".

Van Tongeren, who has been an MP since 2010, received more than 10,000 preference votes in 2012, thrice as many as current party leader Jesse Klaver.

The top 15 on the list proposed by the board:
1. Jesse Klaver, party leader
2. Kathalijne Buitenweg, former GL MEP
3. Tom van der Lee, board member Oxfam Novib Netherlands
4. Linda Voortman, MP
5. Rik Grashoff, MP
6. Corinne Ellemeet, former MP and board member of environmentalist organizations
7. Zihni Özdil, philosopher and thinker on issues related to multiculturalism (I like this guy a lot tbh)
8. Bart Snels, head of the GL's "think tank"
9. Suzanne Kröger, Greenpeace
10. Bram van Ojik, former party leader and incumbent MP
11. Nevin Özütok, former MP
12. Paul Smeulders, alderman in Helmond and active for green organization Natuurmonumenten
13. Lisa Westerveld, former chair of the national student union'
14. Laura Bromet, alderwoman in Waterland (Noord-Holland) and active for Milieudefensie and Natuurmonumenten
15. Wim-Jan Renkema, former school principal

[DavidB.]

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.


The gap between those who prefer Rutte and those who would prefer Samsom as PM is 28 points; between Rutte and Asscher 6 points. D66 voters prefer Rutte over Samsom but Asscher over Rutte. It is clear that Asscher would be the more electable PvdA leader, though in both cases more people would prefer Rutte.

In the case of a PVV-VVD two-horse race, the PVV could get a "bonus" of 7 seats and the VVD of 6 seats. For the PVV, those would mainly come from higher turnout (potential non-voters), SP and 50Plus; for the VVD from CDA, D66 and turnout.

[freek]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

[Zinneke]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

Its still a costly exercise and I think its fair to say that the Dutch Right is hard electoral market to enter right now.

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?