Poland election - October 25 2015

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

If anybody follows updates in PKW website it is worth to mention that out of this 42 registered committees 11 are committees only to Senate and in most cases they are for only one electoral district. Prawica Rzeczypospolitej which have its committee to the Senate also starts from the Law and Justice lists to the Sejm (in every district they have 8th place on the list, such is electoral agreement between Kaczyński and Marek Jurek, MEP and leader of Prawica Rzeczypospolitej although some media said that this agreement now faces some complications).

[Donnie]

Latest poll (IBRIS) ahead of parl. election (Oct. 25-th). 460 seats

PIS             40.4   %  256 seats
PO              19     %  117 seats
United Left   9.5   %  45 seats
Nowoczesna (new liberal party in Poland) 6.5%  16 seats
PSL             5.4   %  16 seats
------------------5%-----------------------------
Kukiz party   4.7  %
KORWIN       2.2  %
Undecided 7%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

No one wants to talk about Polish elections

[Viewfromthenorth]

Give it another couple of weeks. I will certainly be writing some about them and will be checking this thread regularly (I use this site as an election news aggregator)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well who the hell wants to talk about a PiS deluge? I have a lot of affection for Poland I guess I'll pick over the electoral devastation when its over but...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I remember times when PiS was ruling, it wasn't really that bad. They have changed a lot since then.

[TJ in Oregon]

I know very little, but for what I do, I'd rather have your country's main political parties than my country's

[DC Al Fine]

I know very little, but for what I do, I'd rather have your country's main political parties than my country's

Which is perhaps why none of the forum liberals and lefties like to discuss it. Indeed PO vs. PiS with a moribund socialist movement sounds wonderful

[TJ in Oregon]

I know very little, but for what I do, I'd rather have your country's main political parties than my country's

Which is perhaps why none of the forum liberals and lefties like to discuss it. Indeed PO vs. PiS with a moribund socialist movement sounds wonderful

Exactly! I can only imagine how wonderful it must be to lose the election (ie. have the less preferred party win) and end up with PO! Where can I sign?

[politicus]

Besides leftists not likiing all right wing elections I think the other main reason we do not talk about it is unrealiable polls. When there are no (credible) poll changes to discuss there are less interest.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Polls are not only topic to discuss :I
I was on holidays in Spain and Portugal and now I am a little bit poorly informed but collapse of Kukiz power also destroyed few minor parties, for example Ruch Narodowy and Kongres Nowej Prawicy what might be interesting for all those hungry lefties on this forum.

[DavidB.]

all those hungry lefties on this forum.

Lol

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

all right wing elections

And I forgot:

what?

[politicus]

all right wing elections

And I forgot:

what?

Elections with no centre-left alternative.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Main parties are rather not right-wing, Civic Platform is centre and during this campaign they position themselves sometimes even on centre-left. Polls in Poland are maybe not reliable but there is positive trend for United Left and they had chances to get more votes than they deserve - even 10%. How is it right-wing elections?

[politicus]

Main parties are rather not right-wing, Civic Platform is centre and during this campaign they position themselves sometimes even on centre-left. Polls in Poland are maybe not reliable but there is positive trend for United Left and they had chances to get more votes than they deserve - even 10%. How is it right-wing elections?

Right wing is a convenient shorthand. Like calling a SocDem party left wing.

Both major Polish parties are Conservative (in different ways) by Western standards. That does not appeal to forum leftists and Liberals.

[Zanas]

I agree that the PO-PiS pageant is not very appealing to someone with a firm left-wing stance.

To be honest, pretty much all I expect and desire from any Polish election is to see the result map and compare it to the ancient imperial borders of 150 years ago and before. This is utterly satisfying, you don't find such long enduring political patterns and cleavages everywhere.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

This is actually funny because during Interbellum period this "Imperial" pattern was not that visible because of variety of parties. In my opinion this division is still present not because of imperial times but because of Yalta and 1945 shifts of population. Population which settled gained by Poland territories was more vulnerable on communist influence, not rooted in territory where they were living so basically less conservative and generally owned much more to the communist Poland  than population from terrains which was inside Polish borders before 1939. Before 1939 Greater Poland was heartland of National Democracy (and people from those terrains were voting on Polish Party which was rather centre-right/centre) while Congress Poland was dominated by socialists and agrarian parties, so compared to present times completely opposite - formerly preservative and staunchly anti-German Greater Poland became more liberal (but still voting on petite bourgeoisie parties), pretty similar to the western parts of Poland - also influenced by them and rather pro-German while formerly revolutionary Congress Poland became more conservative (as they had position to defend something). So in my opinion this is just coincidence that current political "borders" are very similar to the imperial ones and current political division is based on other aspects - not on the times of partitions.

[jaichind]

This is actually funny because during Interbellum period this "Imperial" pattern was not that visible because of variety of parties. In my opinion this division is still present not because of imperial times but because of Yalta and 1945 shifts of population. Population which settled gained by Poland territories was more vulnerable on communist influence, not rooted in territory where they were living so basically less conservative and generally owned much more to the communist Poland  than population from terrains which was inside Polish borders before 1939. Before 1939 Greater Poland was heartland of National Democracy (and people from those terrains were voting on Polish Party which was rather centre-right/centre) while Congress Poland was dominated by socialists and agrarian parties, so compared to present times completely opposite - formerly preservative and staunchly anti-German Greater Poland became more liberal (but still voting on petite bourgeoisie parties), pretty similar to the western parts of Poland - also influenced by them and rather pro-German while formerly revolutionary Congress Poland became more conservative (as they had position to defend something). So in my opinion this is just coincidence that current political "borders" are very similar to the imperial ones and current political division is based on other aspects - not on the times of partitions.

Yes.  I find the regional split in Poland very interesting as well with respect to the 1914 borders.  I would point out that the 2014 Romania Prez elections had a similar split with respect to 1914 borders.

 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Similar taint of Austro-Hungarian monarchy and its policies is visible on Ukraine. Higher turnout, stronger nationalist parties.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

We agreed there that polls are sh**t but I find this one funny because Grzegorz Braun committee is included
http://wyborcza.pl/1,75478,18725112,pis-po-i-lewica-nieznacznie-w-dol-rosnie-nowoczesnapl-kukiz.html

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, the registration of electoral lists started. After that everything will be clear which committees will start in the elections. As for now there are one or two lists registered in a little bit more than half electoral districts and ca.40% does not have any list. But if party will register its lists in 21 districts they can start in whole country without needed signatures in the rest of the districts.

As for the Senate thing is a little bit different because we have single-mandate electoral districts. There are 100 districts and there are some in which now are registered 3 candidates (mostly in Świętokrzyskie voivodship where PiS will fight with PSL)

[Donnie]

Latest TNS OBOP 4-9 Sept. 984 sample.

PIS             48%
PO              29%
Kukiz            9%

All others below the 5% thereshold.

Despite the TNS OBOP polls were the most accurate in reg. to Polish elections
in recent years, the PIS numbers look a little too high for me.
Or is this the impact of refugees mess in Europe?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Actually PiS do not use anti-immigrant rhetoric very often, I would say its rather media "hot topic".
And I don't think that all of the sudden people who are against EU program for  "immigrants sharing" and Kopacz response on it would further weaken support for PO as probably most of the potential PO voters are not against forced by the EU immigrants influx.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Good news for Polish left wing politics - Polska Partia Pracy (PPP) joined Zjednoczona Lewica coalition and resigned from taking part in elections solo. So shortly before end of bringing signatures to the regional electoral commissions Zjednoczona Lewica got support of virtual party which is supported by strong/average trade union. I think we can say that 10% for left now is almost sure.