[OFFICIAL] Virginia 2016 Strategy Thread

[EliteLX]

Virginia in 2016 could end up being a rather important state and is really going to be a VERY important hit or miss for the GOP. As Atlas Forum users, let's discuss our views & opinions on Virginia, its results, and its effects on the election. Go!

• Is Virginia D or R in 2016:
• Minimum 3 sentences WHY/Theory:
• Percentage Virginia goes R in 2016:
• Percentage Virginia goes D in 2016:
• Percentage Gap of Losing Party:
• Where will/can GOP improve?
• Where will/can Dems improve?
• OPTIONAL: Theoretical County Results Map for 2016:

[EliteLX]

Is Virginia D or R in 2016: Republican

Minimum 3 sentences WHY/Theory: If the Republicans run a candidate who fails to reach out to new voters, then Virginia will be for sure D, by margins of 3%+. However, if Republicans improve African American vote by a few percentage points and rile together stronger portions of Hispanic vote while blasting & rallying together the white middle-class like normal, Virginia could very well be in play. With a strongly run campaign with a positive candidate, Virginia very-well could go red. If a candidate gets slaughtered in controversy, a sloppy ticket is ran, or new voters aren't reached out to, Virginia is solid D and 'pubs will have to look elsewhere for Electoral Vote. Tickets where a winning scenario might play out - Bush/Rubio, Rand/Kasich, Rand/Rubio, Rubio/Rand, Rubio/Kasich, TopTierR/Haley, Bush/Kasich, Rubio/HispanicVP, Rubio/EffectiveWomanVP

Percentage Virginia goes R in 2016: 46%

Percentage Virginia goes D in 2016: 54%

Percentage Gap of Losing Party: <1.5%

Where will/can GOP improve? Hispanic Vote, some Independent & White Suburban Vote?

Where will/can Dems improve? Womans vote & Busting Cities/Large Pop. Centers

OPTIONAL: Theoretical County Results Map for 2016: N/A

[Mehmentum]

While improving with minorities could work, there is an alternative path.

They key to the Democrat's success is the growth of Northern Virginia and the key to Democratic strength in Northern Virginia is education level.  A full quarter of the NoVa population has a graduate or professional degree.  While college graduates in general are fairly evenly split, those with graduate degrees vote for Democrats at a 2 to 1 margin. 

In addition, these people will likely have high incomes, which means they'll be more likely to vote than most Democratic constituencies.  This could explain why Virginia Democrats have had a lot of success in off year and midterm elections, even though Democrats in most other competitive states have been routinely destroyed in midterm elections.

So why are these people so Democratic?  Well, they're likely turned off by the amount of religious fundamentalism and global warming denialism in the Republican party.  Generally these people view Republicans as anti-science and until that perception changes, they'll remain solidly Democratic.

[RFayette]

So why are these people so Democratic?  Well, they're likely turned off by the amount of religious fundamentalism and global warming denialism in the Republican party.  Generally these people view Republicans as anti-science and until that perception changes, they'll remain solidly Democratic.

This is true that the highly-educated, very affluent nature of segments of the VADP help the state a lot in the off-years.  I absolutely agree that religious and cultural issues play a role, and climate change may as well (though frankly, this does not show up high at all on "top priorities"  lists according to poll respondents, so I think this religion and cultural issues are by far the greater reason. But I think we're missing a key factor here, which is the federal government.  Plenty of those highly-educated folks have  federal government jobs and as such have little reason to vote for the GOP, except in military industries.

Also, the gap between postgraduate study and regular bachelor's degrees is much, much smaller in more culturally conservative states; for instance, in Georgia, postgraduate study folks only voted 2 points more Democratic in 2014 than those with a normal bachelor's degree, and in TX, only 1 point more Democratic. So I think the fact that NoVA voters are often more liberal Northerners also has an impact.  Most people with a postgraduate degree in these states below voted GOP in 2014.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=TX
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=SC
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=GA
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=WV
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2014/exit-polls?year=2014&type=senate&filter=AR


So I agree that in Virginia, postgrad degree folks are a problem for the Republicans.  That being said, an effort to reach them should be done in the same vein as trying to reach more liberal Northeasterners in general, rather than just looking at their educational level.

[Mr. Illini]

Is Virginia D or R in 2016: Democratic

Minimum 3 sentences WHY/Theory: The NoVA suburbs are continuing to grow, which is what turned this state blue the last two times. Hillary Clinton will do even better in that area than Obama did. She'll also do better in the rural parts of the state.

Percentage Virginia goes R in 2016: 46%

Percentage Virginia goes D in 2016: 52%

Where will/can GOP improve? Hispanics, coast, Charlottesville

Where will/can Dems improve? Loudon/PW Counties, Arlington, Appalachia

OPTIONAL: Theoretical County Results Map for 2016:



Republicans make limited gains in SE VA while Dems push Fairfax and Prince William over 60% and ease GOP victories in the Appalachian region