Gay marriage electoral map before and after SCOTUS decision

[old timey villain]

Anybody want to take a crack at this?  How would the states vote if same sex marriage were a national referendum? I'm interested to see how you guys think the results would change before and after the ruling. My assumption is that more people have become pro gay marriage after the ruling, just wanting to be on the right side of history, so maybe that would flip some close states.

[kcguy]

I'm probably being optimistic about the support for gay marriage, but maybe something like this?

[Skill and Chance]

Support is probably somewhat, but not too dramatically, overstated in polling.  The libertarian appeal serves mainly to make it a 67/33 issue in the most urban states:

[Gass3268]

Support is probably somewhat, but not too dramatically, overstated in polling.  The libertarian appeal serves mainly to make it a 67/33 issue in the most urban states:

This plus Alaska, maybe Indiana and Missouri on a good day.

[ElectionsGuy]

Give or take the Dakotas

Yes - 366
No - 172

Yes - 59%
No - 41%

Before the ruling would probably add a few states like Indiana and Virginia to the No side.

[TDAS04]

Yes: 350
No: 188

Yes: 55%
No: 45%

[Potus]

It would be significantly closer in West Virginia than most would expect.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think we are accounting enough for the boost in support from having it early, particularly pre-2012.  I believe it has polled over 60% in Iowa, for example (legalized in 2009).