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  KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races
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Author Topic: KY-PPP: Bevin leads Conway by 3; Republicans also ahead in down-ballot races  (Read 9050 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: June 23, 2015, 03:09:13 PM »
« edited: June 23, 2015, 03:26:17 PM by TNvolunteer »

Matt Bevin (R): 38%
Jack Conway (D): 35%
Drew Curtis (I): 6%

Horse Race with Curtis supporters allocated to second choice:

Matt Bevin (R): 40%
Jack Conway (D): 38%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_KY_6231523458923458.pdf
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2015, 03:22:40 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2015, 03:27:46 PM by TNvolunteer »

Down-ballot races:

Secretary of State:

Alison Lundergran Grimes (D): 42%
Steve Knipper (R): 47%

Attorney General:

Andy Beshear (D): 36%
Whitney Westerfield (R): 41%

State Treasurer:

Rick Nelson (D): 32%
Allison Ball (R): 41%

State Auditor:

Adam Edelen (D): 33%
Mike Harmon (R): 39%

Agriculture Commissioner:

Jean-Marie Lawson Spann (D): 31%
Ryan Quarles (R): 40%
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #2 on: June 23, 2015, 03:27:59 PM »

Remember when Grimes was gonna beat McConnell? Me neither.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2015, 03:35:15 PM »

Well, I'm going to change my prediction for PPP's presidential poll. Slaughter for Hillary.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2015, 03:36:43 PM »

Looking good for Pubs.
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2015, 03:38:18 PM »

I'll support Bevin, despite my dislike for him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2015, 03:39:14 PM »

Would be something if KY outdoes AR with a clean sweep.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2015, 03:41:01 PM »

If Bevin is leading before Republicans coalesce in November, Conway is toast.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2015, 03:58:28 PM »

RIP Kentucky Democrats
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2015, 03:59:37 PM »

Surprised by this. May be just a primary bounce, we'll have to see.

In any case, after adding this poll to and removing a now known SUSA outlier from my average, Conway's lead drops to 2.33%. With this being an atlas blue state, I think the following change is fair:

KY GOV: Leans D ---> Toss-Up


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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2015, 04:02:51 PM »

This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2015, 04:09:15 PM »

This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.

That's even worse for Conway. RIP.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2015, 04:11:31 PM »

Oh goodness, Grimes won with 61% in 2011.

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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2015, 04:13:13 PM »

Really, one poll showing Bevin slightly ahead and we're already calling the race for him? Let's see if he can survive the summer without making a bone-headed comment first. Still a toss-up.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2015, 04:14:14 PM »

This is a sample that voted 52%-39% Romney in 2012. However, Romney won the state of KY by 22 points (60%-38%). So this poll may even be (slightly?) biased towards Democrats.

PPP is known for its "don't remember" subsample being disproportionately republican-leaning, but it's probably still slightly biased toward dems.
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wifikitten
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« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2015, 04:24:46 PM »

Oh sweet Jesus, if this poll pans out in November, RIP sanity in Kentucky politics.
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RFayette
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« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2015, 05:12:04 PM »

Bevin is probably favored at this point
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2015, 06:08:58 PM »

Yeah, it's going to be a bloodbath.
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Hydera
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2015, 06:25:44 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2015, 06:40:01 PM by Hydera »

The Arkansas democrats resisted for so long despite the unpopularity of the national democrats since 2000 in that state and finally got swept out in 2014.

Looks like the last holdouts in Kentucky will fall as well.


Oh sweet Jesus, if this poll pans out in November, RIP sanity in Kentucky politics.

Having the national brand become unpopular is one thing. Destroying one of the most symbolic industries of which the same areas were your strongholds even despite nixon and reagan is another.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2015, 06:48:36 PM »

Conway, is now the underdog in the race, but he like Grimes, did have problems in that Senate race, in 2010, and these were the states that gave Dems problems in 2014.

There is still a little time left.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2015, 07:19:41 PM »

This poll is a complete joke: Grimes and Edelen aren't going to lose, obviously, let alone to such weak opponents.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2015, 07:25:22 PM »

This poll is a complete joke: Grimes and Edelen aren't going to lose, obviously, let alone to such weak opponents.

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

#it'sjunkbecauseIdon'tliketheresults
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2015, 07:28:26 PM »

Well, Kentucky was fun for Democrats while it lasted.  I think this strongly suggests Manchin will also be toast in 2018.

Off topic, but the Democrats really need to take the right steps now so that they are prepared to do this to at least one of the Bush-Obama states the next time there's a Republican president.
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Skye
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« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2015, 07:30:39 PM »

lol @ Grimes losing.
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Well, that's gotta hurt. Still a tossup for now, though. Let's see if Bevin doesn't self destruct. But whatever, one moment McConnell has a real chance of losing, the next he wins by 16 points.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2015, 07:36:41 PM »

PPP is not known for being junk. There is nothing to counter their data at this point.

Bevin losing the last poll by 11 sort of counters it.

Bevin being Bevin sort of counters it too.
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