McCaskill Seriously Considering Challenging Talent

[Moooooo]

From The Hill:

Missouri state Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) is expected to meet with officials from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) early next week to discuss a possible 2006 bid against Sen. Jim Talent (R-Mo.).

McCaskill ran unsuccessfully for governor last year and is one of three Democrats to hold statewide office in Missouri. There has been considerable speculation in her home state about a Senate run.

State Sen. Chuck Graham (D) has already announced that he will be challenging Talent, but McCaskill has better name I.D. and is considered to be a stronger contender. A recent DSCC poll shows McCaskill tied with Talent, with 43% each.

[TheresNoMoney]

We need you to run Claire! Winning a seat in MO would be huge for us.

[Moooooo]

We need you to run Claire! Winning a seat in MO would be huge for us.

It will be an uphill race for her.  I think Talent is stronger than his numbers show.  Plus, he's been raising a ton of cash latley.  He will be well funded and prepared.

[minionofmidas]

That state is very polarized. Sorta like...
Jesus (R) 59%
Convicted Serial Killer (D) 41%

Jesus (D) 55%
Convicted Serial Killer (R) 45%

Very hard to win that one...no matter that Talent won't likely break 55% against just about anyone.

[opebo]

We need you to run Claire! Winning a seat in MO would be huge for us.

It will be an uphill race for her.  I think Talent is stronger than his numbers show.  Plus, he's been raising a ton of cash latley.  He will be well funded and prepared.

He is well funded, of course.  But he is not particularly well liked.  Aside from the peculiar nature and extreme closeness of his first election, he is from St. Louis County.  Normally 'outstaters' do not like candidates from St. Louis.  McGaskill would not have to wittle down his rural/small town vote much at all to win, as of course she can count on the urban vote.  Still, I agree it will be difficult.  A lot depends on the economy, which is mediocre to good in suburban Missouri, but very bad everywhere else.

[ian]

We need you to run Claire! Winning a seat in MO would be huge for us.

I would totally poop my pants if she ran and won!

[King]

Sad as it is, McCaskill might get 46%ish AT BEST. Noone else will unless Talant is found in bed with Micheal Jackson.
Talant wining with 49-55% is still Talant winning.

Not if he gets 49% with no 3rd party running!

[opebo]

Sad as it is, McCaskill might get 46%ish AT BEST. Noone else will unless Talant is found in bed with Micheal Jackson.
Talant wining with 49-55% is still Talant winning.

55% for Talent is very unlikely - I believe Kit Bond only cracked that percentage for the first time in 2004, with the Bush coat-tails.  Bond is much more popular than Talent.

But yeah, a 51 or 52% win for Talent is more likely than the other way round.

[King]

Sad as it is, McCaskill might get 46%ish AT BEST. Noone else will unless Talant is found in bed with Micheal Jackson.
Talant wining with 49-55% is still Talant winning.

55% for Talent is very unlikely - I believe Kit Bond only cracked that percentage for the first time in 2004, with the Bush coat-tails.  Bond is much more popular than Talent.

But yeah, a 51 or 52% win for Talent is more likely than the other way round.

I was just looking at the 1994 Senate results and I find it amazing that Sen. "I lost to a dead guy" Ashcroft won with 62% of the vote!

[socaldem]

I think McCaskill would do well...

Missouri certainly has swung republican recently, but I think their legislature has engaged in the same sort of overreach repubs have done nationwide....

McCaskill can run not only against national Republicans but against the foibles of the statewide nutters...in addition to social security, the dems can viciously attack on the medicare cuts recently enacted... since Talent is from St Louis County, Claire could hit him hard on populist economic issues in more rural counties, while working the suburbs on issues like stem cell research.  Claire's a tough cookie and I think 04 was just a particularly bad year for state dems and, even then, she got like 48% of the vote.  In what I presume will be a much better political climate in 06 and with Talent's regional weakness properly exploited, I think it would be a toss-up if not a lean-dem race...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sad as it is, McCaskill might get 46%ish AT BEST. No one else will unless Talant is found in bed with Micheal Jackson.
Talant wining with 49-55% is still Talant winning.

This one of the times where I am glad I was wrong

[True Democrat]

We need you to run Claire! Winning a seat in MO would be huge for us.

I would totally poop my pants if she ran and won!

How are your pants?