1968: McCarthy vs Reagan

[YaBoyNY]

So, let's assume that in 1968, Eugene McCarthy manages to win the Democratic nomination, while Ronald Reagan manages to clench the Republican nomination. How does this matchup go? Does McCarthy have a shot at beating Reagan? Would McCarthy improve in areas that Humphrey lost?

Discuss with maps.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Assuming Wallace does not run and endorses RR:

McCarthy does better in the PNW, Northeast, California and the Midwest, but his weakness in the South costs him the election.

[Sir Mohamed]

Wallace does not endore RR under any circumstances.

However, I think Reagan would win a clear victory.

Ronald Reagan/Gerald Ford: 348 EV. (45%)
Eugene McCarthy/Terry Sandford: 145 EV. (40%)
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay: 45 EV. (11%)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Gov. Reagan (CA) / Sen. Case (NJ)          51%  342   
Sen. McCarthy (MN) / Sen. Hartke (IN)    47%  196

[Kingpoleon]

Reagan wants either foreign policy experience, or money. If he wants money to campaign, which is the only thing that kept him from sweeping even bigger than he did in IOTL, he'll go with Nelson Rockefeller. Rockefeller, Romney, and Percy all had huge war-chests, but Rockefeller made the rest look like ants.

I'm going to guess a Reagan/Rockefeller or Reagan/Percy ticket - one has charisma and money, while the other trades money for campaigning skill.

Reagan/Rockefeller - Sweeps New York, Pennsylvannia, and et cetera.
McCarthy/Muskie - It might win Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

The problem is, Reagan is the toughest opponent McCarthy could face.

Also, possible McCarthy running-mates:
1. Edward Kennedy
2. Edmund Muskie
3. Henry Jackson
4. Mike Gravel
5. Estes Kefauver

Notably, the three least likely are the best but most divisive. Jackson has charisma, Gravel has grassroots, and Kefauver has campaigning skill and name recognition. Kefauver also brings in the South some.

If Reagan wins, I'd say that Rockefeller has a heart attack earlier or resigns for health issues - Nixon, Ford, Romney, and Schweiker all are there to replace him.

In short, this timeline's Presidents may be this:
1969-1977: Ronald Reagan(R-CA)
1977-1981: Henry Jackson(D-WA)
1981-1989: Lowell Weicker(R-CT)
1989-1993: Al Gore(D-TE)
1993-2001: Michael Bloomberg(R-NY)
2001-2009: John Edwards(D-NC)
2009-PRESENT: John Kasich(R-OH)

VPOTUS:
1969-1975: Nelson Rockefeller(R-NY)
1975-1977: Lowell Weicker(R-CT)
1977-1981: Morris Udall(D-AZ)
1981-1989: Gerald Ford(R-MI)
1989-1993: David Boren(D-OK)
1993-2001: Dan Quayle(R-IN)
2001-2009: Blanche Lincoln(D-AR)
2009-PRESENT: Joe Lieberman(R-CT)



In other words, a Reagan victory is assured - McCarthy lacks his campaign skills, his charisma, and his experience.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Why would Reagan choose Weicker, one who would likely be an avowed enemy of his administration, for Vice President? There's probably a healthy amount of moderates out there that wouldn't be nearly as antagonistic to the rise of Reagan as Weicker. Why not Schweicker? And Bloombie didn't identify as a Republican until 2001. Does the failure of Jackson's administration semi-permanently cripple the Democrats until 2000, thus leading to the conversion of a number of centrists and independents to Republicans?

[VPH]

Reagan wants either foreign policy experience, or money. If he wants money to campaign, which is the only thing that kept him from sweeping even bigger than he did in IOTL, he'll go with Nelson Rockefeller. Rockefeller, Romney, and Percy all had huge war-chests, but Rockefeller made the rest look like ants.

I'm going to guess a Reagan/Rockefeller or Reagan/Percy ticket - one has charisma and money, while the other trades money for campaigning skill.

Reagan/Rockefeller - Sweeps New York, Pennsylvannia, and et cetera.
McCarthy/Muskie - It might win Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Connecticut, and Rhode Island.

The problem is, Reagan is the toughest opponent McCarthy could face.

Also, possible McCarthy running-mates:
1. Edward Kennedy
2. Edmund Muskie
3. Henry Jackson
4. Mike Gravel
5. Estes Kefauver He died in 1963 though

Notably, the three least likely are the best but most divisive. Jackson has charisma, Gravel has grassroots, and Kefauver has campaigning skill and name recognition. Kefauver also brings in the South some.

If Reagan wins, I'd say that Rockefeller has a heart attack earlier or resigns for health issues - Nixon, Ford, Romney, and Schweiker all are there to replace him.

In short, this timeline's Presidents may be this:
1969-1977: Ronald Reagan(R-CA)
1977-1981: Henry Jackson(D-WA)
1981-1989: Lowell Weicker(R-CT)
1989-1993: Al Gore(D-TE)
1993-2001: Michael Bloomberg(R-NY)
2001-2009: John Edwards(D-NC)
2009-PRESENT: John Kasich(R-OH)

VPOTUS:
1969-1975: Nelson Rockefeller(R-NY)
1975-1977: Lowell Weicker(R-CT)
1977-1981: Morris Udall(D-AZ)
1981-1989: Gerald Ford(R-MI)
1989-1993: David Boren(D-OK)
1993-2001: Dan Quayle(R-IN)
2001-2009: Blanche Lincoln(D-AR)
2009-PRESENT: Joe Lieberman(R-CT)



In other words, a Reagan victory is assured - McCarthy lacks his campaign skills, his charisma, and his experience.