National Assembly of Wales Elections 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With one seat (Cardiff West) left to declare, the only constituency to have changed hands is Rhondda.

...and note that the result there was not even slightly echoed in surrounding constituencies (Plaid vote down some). Much like the Brecon & Radnor result fundamentally a personal victory and a reflection of the massive potential of a Leader Bonus in low turnout elections.

Talking of personal factors, Labour vote up 8pts in Arfon.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What's the story with the PC enclave in South Wales? (I haven't really been following the thread.)

[YL]

What's the story with the PC enclave in South Wales? (I haven't really been following the thread.)

It's the Rhondda.  The Plaid candidate was their leader, Leanne Wood, and there were apparently issues with the Labour candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the story with the PC enclave in South Wales? (I haven't really been following the thread.)

It's the Rhondda.  The Plaid candidate was their leader, Leanne Wood, and there were apparently issues with the Labour candidate.

It has also voted Plaid in an Assembly election before (again under unusual circumstances). There are a lot of voters in South Wales who though normally Labour are quite prepared to vote for Plaid or some random Independent in certain situations, particularly in a low stakes election. And of course Leader Bonuses are generally massive in these elections; see also Brecon & Radnor and actually even Bridgend again (even if Carwyn's vote was down by more than average it was still notably higher than would otherwise have been) or Cardiff West when Morgan was Leader, etc.

As for Andrews, lets just say that he has certain image problems that have intensified massively in recent years and leave at that...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Scottish Tories polled higher percentages than their Welsh cousins on both constituency and list ballots.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Brown Envelopes is seeking the UKIP leadership.

[afleitch]

You poor bastards

[Clyde1998]

Scottish Tories polled higher percentages than their Welsh cousins on both constituency and list ballots.

It's an interesting observation - when was the last time that happened?

That being said however...

Right Wing (Mainstream) Parties
Scotland:
Con 22.0/22.9
UKIP 0.0/2.0
Total 22.0/24.9

Wales:
Con 21.1/18.8
UKIP 12.5/13.0
Total 33.6/31.8

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You poor bastards

On the contrary the idea of Mr Brown Envelopes as The Face of UKIP is immensely heartening...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bizarre brinkmanship on display to-day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36269820

[Clyde1998]

Bizarre brinkmanship on display to-day:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36269820

The Conservatives and UKIP backed Wood

This is very interesting now - they have 28 days to elect someone, or there will be a second election. This may benefit of Plaid more than Labour, unless Labour change their leader in Wales, IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um... no. This is verging on gearing up for political suicide.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Classic example here of a political party being sacrificed in the name of personal ambition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As Kirsty Williams is opposed and as there's a Plaid presiding officer the numbers don't even work! And even if they did... I'm so confused right now...

[YL]

As Kirsty Williams is opposed and as there's a Plaid presiding officer the numbers don't even work! And even if they did... I'm so confused right now...

There's a Labour deputy presiding officer, who also doesn't vote.  So 29 pro-Jones (28 Lab + 1 Lib Dem) and 29 pro-Wood (Plaid, Con, UKIP).

[Clyde1998]

Looking through Twitter, a lot of people are suggesting that Plaid did a deal with the Tories and UKIP - it appears that they haven't done a deal. Leanne Wood was put forward as a nomination from Plaid (which they are perfectly entitled to do) and the Tories and UKIP voted for her.

It'll be very interesting to see how the media spin this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They can claim what they want. The optics are terrible.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As Kirsty Williams is opposed and as there's a Plaid presiding officer the numbers don't even work! And even if they did... I'm so confused right now...

There's a Labour deputy presiding officer, who also doesn't vote.  So 29 pro-Jones (28 Lab + 1 Lib Dem) and 29 pro-Wood (Plaid, Con, UKIP).

Yes, there was never a majority for Labour. My point was more that there isn't a majority for an alternative anyway. And certainly not for a stable alternative (Plaid-Con backed by UKIP? Jesus...)

[Cassius]

Lmao. I mean, I know we don't like Labour and all, but the Tories and UKIP are really voting for that woman to be FM? I mean, ok, fair enough, it would be hilarious and humiliating for Labour if Jones didn't get elected FM, but I think booting him out only to replace him with Leanne Wood of all people (not that the chances of that are high) is pretty asinine.

[YL]

Looking through Twitter, a lot of people are suggesting that Plaid did a deal with the Tories and UKIP - it appears that they haven't done a deal. Leanne Wood was put forward as a nomination from Plaid (which they are perfectly entitled to do) and the Tories and UKIP voted for her.

It'll be very interesting to see how the media spin this.

I think this must be Tory and UKIP mischief making.  As has been pointed out, actually doing a deal with them when there aren't enough votes for an actual coalition anyway makes no sense at all from Plaid's point of view.  Even if there were the votes, it would be a "courageous" strategy for them.  Fancy holding the Rhondda after doing a deal with the Tories?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tories and Kippers are both claiming that little chats were held before the vote...

[YL]

Tories and Kippers are both claiming that little chats were held before the vote...

Well, perhaps it should just be "fancy holding the Rhondda then?".  Manchester Lib Dems might be able to help with expectations.

(Though remember who the leader of UKIP in the Assembly is.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(Though remember who the leader of UKIP in the Assembly is.)

Indeed...

Plaid's line seems to have has changed from a flat denial to that 'merely' informed the Tories and the Kippers of what they were going to do...