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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors...
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Author Topic: If every state had a Nebraska/Maine-style CD split for presidential electors...  (Read 1763 times)
A18
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« on: May 01, 2005, 10:09:31 pm »

What would the 2000 and 2004 EV results have been?
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nini2287
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2005, 10:17:26 pm »

I don't think all the 2004 numbers, but I think we did this once and Bush slightly increased his lead in 2000
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2005, 01:26:02 am »

...nobody knows, since in that case there'd either be much less gerrymandering or a revolution would have occurred ages ago. Smiley
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2005, 06:47:02 pm »

Have Nebraska or Maine ever actually split their votes?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2005, 06:47:24 pm »

Have Nebraska or Maine ever actually split their votes?

Nope.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2005, 08:06:55 pm »


I think 2000 was the closest for Maine, though.
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A18
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2005, 06:25:15 am »

...nobody knows, since in that case there'd either be much less gerrymandering or a revolution would have occurred ages ago. Smiley

Let's just assume we had the same districts, and no rebellion had yet occured. Smiley
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2005, 07:06:06 am »

2000 data is on this site if you look closely. I think you have to be a member to get the exact data, but you can do a map count. Anyways Bush wins.
2004 data isn't completely compiled yet, but I don't doubt Bush wins again.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2005, 07:33:27 am »

Depending on two seats that Dave considers too close to call, and my reading of the California map, Bush would have had anything from 283 to 286 EVs in 2000.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2005, 07:58:57 am »

Going by the states that are up,
Bush gains 14
Kerry loses 11
due to about equal parts to reapportionment,  regerrymandering and the Republicans' larger majority.
Tossup/don't know loses 1 (I can decipher the California map, being more comfortable with the new districts. There is a new tctc district in NC to replace the one in TN.)
Overall gain of 2 because the states not up yet lost 2 seats net. They are:
Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, and Washington.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2005, 04:12:30 pm »

I believe that Bush would have gained 9-11 seats from PA.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2005, 09:56:41 pm »

Bush would have done much better

The data can be found at Polidata:
2000 Bush would have won  288 to 250  Bush +17
2004 Bush woudl have won  317 to 221  Bush +31

see:
http://www.polidata.org/prcd/default.htm
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2005, 05:23:31 pm »
« Edited: May 14, 2005, 06:32:16 pm by The Vorlon »


Gore carried Maine2 by a tad under 2% in 2000 if I recall
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