NH: Purple Strategies: Hillary up slightly against GOPers
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  NH: Purple Strategies: Hillary up slightly against GOPers
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Author Topic: NH: Purple Strategies: Hillary up slightly against GOPers  (Read 3965 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 10, 2015, 08:13:24 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Purple Strategies on 2015-05-06

Summary: D: 45%, R: 42%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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mds32
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2015, 09:23:19 AM »

4 polling companies in a row have shown that New Hampshire will be competitive.
Gravis Marketing
Dartmouth
UNH/WMUR
Bloomberg/Purple Strategies

That just shows that Hillary Clinton is not going to be cruising unless something changes soon.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2015, 10:22:07 AM »

The clown car primary is what put Obama in command four years ago.  Expect the same this time.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2015, 01:18:56 PM »

Walker again trailing pretty pathetically.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2015, 01:20:45 PM »

Wow. I am really surprised by these numbers. I expected Hillary to have a double-digit lead in the state, but this... Wow. Will NH actually be competitive in 2016?
Yes.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2015, 01:29:27 PM »

Like many of the other lean democratic states, New Hampshire started out fairly close in the polls, but as the campaign progressed, shifted more and more into the Democratic column.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2015, 05:53:27 PM »

Wow. I am really surprised by these numbers. I expected Hillary to have a double-digit lead in the state, but this... Wow. Will NH actually be competitive in 2016?
Yes.

Would be great for the GOP candidate, but why did Romney lose it so badly in 2012? Anyway, the only path to victory for Republicans in NH is to reduce the Democratic margin in the 2nd district (which votes quite similar to VT/MA) and to get bigger margins in the 1st district. Right now, both of these things seem pretty implausible. I still rate the state "Leans D", however, if polls continue to show a close race, I'll change it to Toss-up.

It was only by 5 points, and considering the small population, that isn't that big a margin. New Hampshire citizens remember seeing Romney being all dictatorial with healthcare and gay rights, so they knew better. He wasn't genuine.
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King
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2015, 05:55:02 PM »

I guess we're just going to throw history and context out the window here.

UNH had Romney up 9 in April 2011.  PPP had Romney up 2 in June 2011. NBC/Marist had Romney up 9 in October 2011. The RCP average in January 2012 for New Hampshire was R+5. The RCP average in April 2008 for New Hampshire was R+7.

Early flirtations with the GOP in New Hampshire, especially with their campaign blitz for the NH primary, is nothing new and nothing to get excited over.

If anything, Hillary being close/up right now at the point in the election when the Republican is usually ahead in NH shows how Safe D it is.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2015, 05:57:26 PM »

Fyck all you guys

http://www.redstate.com/2011/11/29/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-new-hampshire/
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2015, 05:57:36 PM »

Wow. I am really surprised by these numbers. I expected Hillary to have a double-digit lead in the state, but this... Wow. Will NH actually be competitive in 2016?
Who said it wouldn't?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2015, 06:03:20 PM »

Pretty delusional.
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King
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2015, 06:05:02 PM »


And already bitch slapped proven wrong. Look at the date. The grand blood red paradigm shift of November 2011 was a falsehood.
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2015, 06:05:16 PM »


Guys! Here's a Red State article written by a Buchananite that totally proves my point!
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2015, 02:36:50 AM »

4 polls in close proximity all predicting a close race (albeit with wild swings in individual match-ups) should be taken seriously, but I am in the camp that believes that the actual campaign will largely benefit Clinton, like it benefitted Obama in 2012 and 2008. Romney was not a bad fit for New Hampshire at all, and he ended up tanking.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2015, 05:22:50 AM »

Compared with their Feb. poll, Hillary's favorables have crashed from 54-42 to 46-49 now and her lead over the GOPers (+7 vs. Paul, +14 vs. Bush, +13 vs. Walker) has fallen significantly too.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2015, 10:43:27 AM »

4 polling companies in a row have shown that New Hampshire will be competitive.
Gravis Marketing
Dartmouth
UNH/WMUR
Bloomberg/Purple Strategies

That just shows that Hillary Clinton is not going to be cruising unless something changes soon.

Two of which were garbage, by the way.
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King
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2015, 10:53:19 AM »

4 polling companies in a row have shown that New Hampshire will be competitive.
Gravis Marketing
Dartmouth
UNH/WMUR
Bloomberg/Purple Strategies

That just shows that Hillary Clinton is not going to be cruising unless something changes soon.

Two of which were garbage, by the way.

Which two aren't garbage, by the way?

And everyone conveniently ignoring how the pre-election year polling in New Hampshire is always solid Republican, yet this time around it's lean D.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2015, 11:32:40 AM »

4 polling companies in a row have shown that New Hampshire will be competitive.
Gravis Marketing
Dartmouth
UNH/WMUR
Bloomberg/Purple Strategies

That just shows that Hillary Clinton is not going to be cruising unless something changes soon.
Two of which were garbage, by the way.

Which two aren't garbage, by the way?

And everyone conveniently ignoring how the pre-election year polling in New Hampshire is always solid Republican, yet this time around it's lean D.

UNH and Bloomberg are atleast better than Gravis (lol) and that joke of a Dartmouth poll which had like 30% undecided. Not that they're great either.
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mds32
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2015, 08:25:43 PM »

4 polling companies in a row have shown that New Hampshire will be competitive.
Gravis Marketing
Dartmouth
UNH/WMUR
Bloomberg/Purple Strategies

That just shows that Hillary Clinton is not going to be cruising unless something changes soon.
Two of which were garbage, by the way.

Which two aren't garbage, by the way?

And everyone conveniently ignoring how the pre-election year polling in New Hampshire is always solid Republican, yet this time around it's lean D.

UNH and Bloomberg are atleast better than Gravis (lol) and that joke of a Dartmouth poll which had like 30% undecided. Not that they're great either.

Whatever you say, two polls at the very least are showing a different picture than a Clinton Blowout would look like nationally.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2015, 01:56:35 AM »


Are you deliberately trying to get people to not take you seriously?
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2015, 06:16:14 AM »

4 polling companies in a row have shown that New Hampshire will be competitive.
Gravis Marketing
Dartmouth
UNH/WMUR
Bloomberg/Purple Strategies

That just shows that Hillary Clinton is not going to be cruising unless something changes soon.
Two of which were garbage, by the way.

Which two aren't garbage, by the way?

And everyone conveniently ignoring how the pre-election year polling in New Hampshire is always solid Republican, yet this time around it's lean D.

UNH and Bloomberg are atleast better than Gravis (lol) and that joke of a Dartmouth poll which had like 30% undecided. Not that they're great either.

Whatever you say, two polls at the very least are showing a different picture than a Clinton Blowout would look like nationally.

That doesn't mean anything if none of the polls in question are any good.

Or do you believe that Hillary is going to almost tie in Arizona or win by only a few points in California? Just because a few bad polls say something doesn't mean anything.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2015, 11:58:33 AM »

I guess we're just going to throw history and context out the window here.

UNH had Romney up 9 in April 2011.  PPP had Romney up 2 in June 2011. NBC/Marist had Romney up 9 in October 2011. The RCP average in January 2012 for New Hampshire was R+5. The RCP average in April 2008 for New Hampshire was R+7.

Early flirtations with the GOP in New Hampshire, especially with their campaign blitz for the NH primary, is nothing new and nothing to get excited over.

If anything, Hillary being close/up right now at the point in the election when the Republican is usually ahead in NH shows how Safe D it is.

Fall 2011 was basically the bottom for perceptions of the economy, then things started rebounding noticeably just in time for Obama.  Had the election been in November 2011, I do think Romney would win, potentially even by a reverse 2008 margin.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2015, 03:20:28 PM »

I guess we're just going to throw history and context out the window here.

UNH had Romney up 9 in April 2011.  PPP had Romney up 2 in June 2011. NBC/Marist had Romney up 9 in October 2011. The RCP average in January 2012 for New Hampshire was R+5. The RCP average in April 2008 for New Hampshire was R+7.

Early flirtations with the GOP in New Hampshire, especially with their campaign blitz for the NH primary, is nothing new and nothing to get excited over.

If anything, Hillary being close/up right now at the point in the election when the Republican is usually ahead in NH shows how Safe D it is.

Fall 2011 was basically the bottom for perceptions of the economy, then things started rebounding noticeably just in time for Obama.  Had the election been in November 2011, I do think Romney would win, potentially even by a reverse 2008 margin.

Obama still led Romney nationally in Fall 2011.
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jfern
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« Reply #23 on: May 13, 2015, 10:21:11 PM »

She'll have focus groups decide what are the optimal number of tears to shed in order to win it.
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