Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Maybe this is all for another thread but I've always found the culture of state and private schools in the UK very strange. To hear people talk about, you would think that there must be a huge number of students going to private schools. But it's really no higher than it is in the US where it's never really talked about. Also, it's my understanding that basically every Conservative MP went to a private school which is mind boggling considering how small the pool is. Among the Republicans in Congress, I would guess most of them went to public (government run) schools.

[Simfan34]

Good, most of what I know about this issue comes from Capaldi shouting in the first place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its more an example of Corbyn being a cliché of an ascetic Ethical Socialist of the old school (again the past Labour politician he resembles the most is George Lansbury) than anything else. Certainly it can't be seriously argued to be an example of careerism...

[Blair]

I remember almost dying with laughter when Andrew Neil told Dianne Abbot in 2010 that she was the only person to send her kids to a private school. It seems similar to the bollocks about Ed's two kitchens, or the idiots who thought that all socialists have to be poor. The only Russel Brand quote I'd even mutter is when he said 'When I was poor and talked about inequality they called me bitter, when I was rich they called me a hypocrite' 

[Blair]

Even though he's an awful person Alastair Campbell is a pretty good writer and thinker for the labour party.

http://www.alastaircampbell.org/blog/2015/08/10/nice-guy-good-mp-making-the-weather-but-it-has-to-be-abc-anyone-but-corbyn-labour-is-finished-if-he-wins/

[Silent Hunter]

Something else the Tory press will run with

[Cassius]

You know, there is the possibility that we haven't seen the last of Ed. John Howard's first spell as Liberal leader (1985-1989) was widely seen as a disaster and the man himself as inept, unpopular and awkward.

The difference being that Howard was an experienced and highly capable politician whose first attempt to become Prime Minister was derailed by a combination of the deranged 'Joh for Canberra' campaign and by Andrew Peacock. Ed Miliband may be a nice man, but he was hardly an experienced politician, and he certainly wasn't very capable.

Maybe this is all for another thread but I've always found the culture of state and private schools in the UK very strange. To hear people talk about, you would think that there must be a huge number of students going to private schools. But it's really no higher than it is in the US where it's never really talked about. Also, it's my understanding that basically every Conservative MP went to a private school which is mind boggling considering how small the pool is. Among the Republicans in Congress, I would guess most of them went to public (government run) schools.

This hasn't been true for a very long time. Indeed, there was an more than a bit of fuss about Cameron being the first public school boy to lead the Conservative Party since the sixties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think you may be allowing a personal liking for Howard mislead you as to how he was viewed during/immediately after his first stint as leader.

Anyway, I suspect there's no chance of Miliband trying to regain the leadership (he's not without ambition, but why would he put himself through that again?), but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he eventually emerges as a senior frontbencher.

[Phony Moderate]

You know, there is the possibility that we haven't seen the last of Ed. John Howard's first spell as Liberal leader (1985-1989) was widely seen as a disaster and the man himself as inept, unpopular and awkward.

The difference being that Howard was an experienced and highly capable politician whose first attempt to become Prime Minister was derailed by a combination of the deranged 'Joh for Canberra' campaign and by Andrew Peacock. Ed Miliband may be a nice man, but he was hardly an experienced politician, and he certainly wasn't very capable.

I read a biography of Hawke recently and it notes that Howard began the 1987 campaign by making a major error: hopping on a plane and visiting Joh, even though that whole idea had faded away. It allowed the ALP to tie Howard to the discredited Joh. This could be compared to, say, Miliband's Russell Brand visit. Howard was experienced but he wasn't the politician he became in mid 90s. Anyway, it (a Miliband return) almost certainly won't happen, though Labour probably wouldn't do any worse if he had another term than it will do under, well, any of the four on offer, frankly.

[Simfan34]

You know, there is the possibility that we haven't seen the last of Ed. John Howard's first spell as Liberal leader (1985-1989) was widely seen as a disaster and the man himself as inept, unpopular and awkward.

The difference being that Howard was an experienced and highly capable politician whose first attempt to become Prime Minister was derailed by a combination of the deranged 'Joh for Canberra' campaign and by Andrew Peacock. Ed Miliband may be a nice man, but he was hardly an experienced politician, and he certainly wasn't very capable.

Maybe this is all for another thread but I've always found the culture of state and private schools in the UK very strange. To hear people talk about, you would think that there must be a huge number of students going to private schools. But it's really no higher than it is in the US where it's never really talked about. Also, it's my understanding that basically every Conservative MP went to a private school which is mind boggling considering how small the pool is. Among the Republicans in Congress, I would guess most of them went to public (government run) schools.

This hasn't been true for a very long time. Indeed, there was an more than a bit of fuss about Cameron being the first public school boy to lead the Conservative Party since the sixties.

When it rains, it pours?

[Phony Moderate]

Oh yeah and Barry Sheerman (Huddersfield MP) has called for this whole thing to be paused. I doubt he's supporting Corbyn.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sheerman is one of the most right-wing members of the PLP and has long been devoted to factional trouble making.

Let us now discuss something far more important, namely Burnham's hair when he was younger:

[Simfan34]

Youthful indulgence. Or ignorance.

What was the occasion? Leavers ball?

[politicus]

Let us now discuss something far more important, namely Burnham's hair when he was younger:

Seems fine to me.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's just such an of course moment imo.

[Silent Hunter]

 see: The Thick of It, where government minister Nicola Murray is ferociously flailed by spin doctor Malcolm Tucker for planning to send her daughter to an independent school:

Peter Capaldi doesn't have a Twitter account (although his co-star Jenna Coleman does), but I suspect he'd have more followers than any of the Labour leadership contenders.

[Phony Moderate]

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that's how things are then that's how things are, but I dunno.

There were some issues with the internals of the last one they did; might be interesting to see if they are repeated with this one as well.

[ChrisDR68]

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%

Am I right in thinking there wouldn't be a second round if Corbyn got over 50% in the first round?

Silly question I know but just making sure

[Phony Moderate]

If that's how things are then that's how things are, but I dunno.

There were some issues with the internals of the last one they did; might be interesting to see if they are repeated with this one as well.

Internals: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/14x8p1al7n/TimesResults150810LabourMembers.pdf

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%

Am I right in thinking there wouldn't be a second round if Corbyn got over 50% in the first round?

Silly question I know but just making sure

Yes, that's right. Though according to YouGov if other preferences were counted Corbyn would beat Burnham 60-40 and Cooper 62-38.

[Phony Moderate]

Peter Kellner's analysis. He says that he'd be 'astonished' if Corbyn doesn't win.

[jaichind]

I cannot believe that the LABs are actually going to vote in Corbyn.  I guess defeat is a chance to try out a more pure principled leader like William Hague for the CONs after 1997.  Of course the result will be equally bad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A better comparison would be with IDS.

[YL]

New YouGov poll:

Corbyn - 53%
Burnham - 21%
Cooper - 18%
Kendall - 8%

I'm still sceptical about polling for this contest, but that would have to be quite badly wrong for Corbyn not to be in the lead.

As for the crossbreaks (insert health warning here), the most noticeable thing is that Corbyn's lead is smaller among long-standing Labour members (he's on 39% among those who joined before Ed M became leader).  The registered supporters (or "£3 sign-ups" as YouGov call them) aren't actually significantly more pro-Corbyn than the rest of the electorate, though the sample size is small...

Oh, and they asked how likely respondents thought it was that Labour would win the next election with each leader.  Totals for "Very likely" and "Fairly likely":
Burnham 52%
Cooper 45%
Corbyn 42%
Kendall 19% - ouch

[joevsimp]

so today is (i think) the deadline for me to give in to those incessant emails from Len McCluskey and sign up to vote, which I won't as I'm a Green member, if I still had my automatic vote as a member of an affiliated union (although I didn't last time as I was in the middle of transferring from USDAW to Unite) I'd be in a bit of a tricky position right now.

a lot of my party have kept their heads down over this but this was posted last week I think sums up the worries that a lot of us have.
http://londongreenleft.blogspot.co.uk/2015/08/will-corbyn-leadership-win-steal-greens.html

having said that though, I can't see JC leading a united and coherent Labour party into the next election, let alone winning it (and i will eat my orgainic hemp donkey jacket if he does)