NH-UNH/WMUR: Clinton leads Cruz, ties Walker, trails Bush/Paul/Rubio
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  NH-UNH/WMUR: Clinton leads Cruz, ties Walker, trails Bush/Paul/Rubio
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Author Topic: NH-UNH/WMUR: Clinton leads Cruz, ties Walker, trails Bush/Paul/Rubio  (Read 3329 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: May 07, 2015, 08:46:25 PM »

UNH/WMUR poll of New Hampshire:

PDF link

Bush 47%
Clinton 41%

Paul 47%
Clinton 43%

Clinton 44%
Walker 44%

Rubio 47%
Clinton 42%

Clinton 46%
Cruz 45%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2015, 09:04:01 PM »

The university pollsters are pumping out junk polls, news at 11.
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Matty
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 09:13:44 PM »

The usual posters will holler "Junk poll!" at this one, but they'll cream their pants at the NBJ poll, even though it had 30% of its respondents as 18-34, even though in 2012 18-34 made up 18% of the electorate.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2015, 12:47:59 AM »

UNH is notorious for its wild swings. Their last poll from a couple of months ago had Clinton leading Bush by 12!
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2015, 01:08:09 AM »

The usual posters will holler "Junk poll!" at this one, but they'll cream their pants at the NBJ poll, even though it had 30% of its respondents as 18-34, even though in 2012 18-34 made up 18% of the electorate.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2015, 01:11:14 AM »

Definitely not.

Hillary is inevitable.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2015, 06:40:25 AM »

Huh. Interesting. Though polling in NH is always wild.
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King
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2015, 07:02:25 AM »

The party ID for this was R+5, even in 2014 it was D+1. Pretty optimistic.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2015, 09:08:29 AM »

The party ID for this was R+5, even in 2014 it was D+1. Pretty optimistic.

Not usable for a general map.
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King
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2015, 09:15:19 AM »

lol just use it pbrower. NH is polled all the time. it'll get usurped in within a week anyway
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2015, 09:16:45 AM »

lol just use it pbrower. NH is polled all the time. it'll get usurped in within a week anyway

The focus is likely on the caucuses and not the general election. The first one is the big news for now. 
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NHI
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2015, 09:34:32 AM »

A strange NH poll. Clinton with a one point lead over Cruz, six point deficit against Bush? I don't think so.
Speaking as a Republican I'm calling bull on this poll.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2015, 11:07:15 AM »

Here are the UNH swings for the presidential race in 2012 from January to September.

Obama +5 --> Obama +15 --> Obama +6 --> Obama +9 --> tie --> Obama +4
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2015, 11:17:26 AM »

293 GOP primary voters and 229 Democratic ones. Not stunning this is the result you get with that sample. A good pollster wouldn't run a statewide general poll with a sample like that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2015, 12:38:41 PM »

The polls in NH seem quite schizophrenic, as usual.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2015, 12:40:22 PM »

293 GOP primary voters and 229 Democratic ones. Not stunning this is the result you get with that sample. A good pollster wouldn't run a statewide general poll with a sample like that.

It's about the primary, and not about the general election.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2015, 04:09:34 PM »

Clinton will win NH; but OH is worrisome; as polls show that Jeb is leading in Va.  Hilary has yet to do the campaigning that has caught up to the GOP. She will; as Benghazi will fade since she is testifying.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2015, 05:44:13 PM »

Clinton will win NH; but OH is worrisome; as polls show that Jeb is leading in Va.  Hilary has yet to do the campaigning that has caught up to the GOP. She will; as Benghazi will fade since she is testifying.
Your statements are logically incoherent. You jump from New Hampshire to Ohio to Virginia for whatever reason, then to Benghazi. I just don't understand why you even bother posting.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2015, 07:50:17 AM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by University of New Hampshire on 2015-05-03

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Free Bird
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« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2015, 12:54:53 PM »

It's a junk poll because I don't like the result!
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2015, 01:58:22 PM »

It's a junk poll because I don't like the result!

It's a junk poll because the % Party ID sample is trash for a general election in NH.
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morgieb
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« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2015, 10:12:48 PM »

It's a junk poll because I don't like the result!

It's a junk poll because the % Party ID sample is trash for a general election in NH.
Plus y'know, UNH has a reputation of inconsistency and is just a crap pollster.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: May 10, 2015, 12:18:25 AM »

So Clinton will do worse in NH than AZ? Hmmm...
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