Share interesting/random facts re: election margins here
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  Share interesting/random facts re: election margins here
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All Along The Watchtower
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« on: May 05, 2015, 03:09:43 AM »

Just as a starting example:

The top 5 Republican margins of victory in Kentucky:
Nixon (1972): 28.60%
Romney (2012): 22.68%
Reagan (1984): 20.66%
Bush (2004): 19.86%
Hoover (1928): 18.87%
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Hydera
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2015, 06:39:16 AM »

George HW Bush won 421 EV's in 1988 with a 7.7% margin. While Clinton in 1996 won 379 EV's with a 8.5% margin.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2015, 07:51:10 AM »

Reagan's 1984 victory, in spite of being the biggest in terms of number of EVs and a close second (to FDR '36) in terms of EV margin, was only the 5th biggest in terms of popular vote percentage and 6th biggest in terms of popular vote % margin. FDR '36, Johnson, Nixon, Harding all won 60.3% or more vs Reagan's 58.8%; Coolidge beat Davis by 25% vs Reagan beating Mondale by 18%.

A swing of 1% toward Mondale in every state and DC would drop Reagan's margin of victory to 7th biggest overall (behind Hoover-Smith) while keeping all his EVs.

The election of 1984 was fairly uniform across the nation, as compared to the other years.
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2015, 07:55:04 AM »

George HW Bush won 421 EV's in 1988 with a 7.7% margin. While Clinton in 1996 won 379 EV's with a 8.5% margin.
The elections of 1984, 1988 and 1992 were among the most uniform I think in terms of state by state percentages. By 1996 divisions were starting to open up.

By the way, even though all 4 minority presidents (Adams 1824, Hayes 1876, Harrison 1888, Bush 2000) were Republican or equivalent, it looks like, if 2012-2016 swings are consistent state to state, that in 2016 a Republican might win the popular vote and lose in the electoral college.
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