rough 2040 electoral map

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The Democratic black ceiling appears to be a figure well over ninety percent which really isn't much of a ceiling at all. Future voting trends will probably be even more racially polarized, it just depends on how hard the parties can pander.

[Skill and Chance]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

This is true and the ignorant comments by others further up in the thread clearly don't realize that the white vote has been more or less steady at 60% for 6 years now and other Democrats have registered close to Obama-level support among minorities in key states.  So things look pretty locked in to me in the short to medium term.  Similarly, for me the present day political behavior of New Mexico weighs heavily against the idea that Hispanic = white in popular culture by mid-century.

That having been said, there is a long history of white voters shifting almost unanimously conservative in areas that become 4X% minority.  Hence, in my 2040 map, I do see the GOP getting about 75% of the ~55% white vote nationally.

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The Democratic black ceiling appears to be a figure well over ninety percent which really isn't much of a ceiling at all. Future voting trends will probably be even more racially polarized, it just depends on how hard the parties can pander.

There's huge differences between whites and blacks in American politics.

Whites are never going to be such a minority that they're 13 to 15% of the population, nor are they going to vote for the GOP in such huge margins as Hispanics currently do Democrats.  And the reason is that there's no real unified "white vote" or "white issues" that can be pandered to. How are you going to pander to a liberal white professional and a conservative white farmer? What do they have in common other than not being a minority?

And that's the problem I see with the idea that whites are going to vote 70% or 75% Republican. Far more likely is that Republicans improve their numbers amongst Hispanics, which would completely solidify Texas and Arizona.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

I see two most likely outcomes for the midcentury GOP in close elections: one world in which they they are philosophically libertarian and consistently get mid 70% with white voters to flip basically the entire North save for NYC and DC metro and win Asian voters at least 60/40, and one world in which they are a G.H.W. Bush compassionate conservative party that has added the most religious 50-60% of Hispanics to 55-65% of white voters and solidified the South and West.

[Ebsy]

The GOP is probably near it's ceiling with white voters currently. If they didn't bolt under the black guy, I doubt they are going to start bolting in large numbers in the next few years.

[bobloblaw]

The GOP is probably near it's ceiling with white voters currently. If they didn't bolt under the black guy, I doubt they are going to start bolting in large numbers in the next few years.

Not even close. As the Dem party needs fewer and fewer white votes, it will become more and more hostile to whites.

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

[Ebsy]

You're telling me both tea party and establishment Republicans using thinly coded fearmongering about "non-English speakers" flooding over the border taking good 'ole American jobs has nothing to do with Latinos voting for the Democratic Party? Well, thanks for clearing that up for me.

[YaBoyNY]

You're telling me both tea party and establishment Republicans using thinly coded fearmongering about "non-English speakers" flooding over the border taking good 'ole American jobs has nothing to do with Latinos voting for the Democratic Party? Well, thanks for clearing that up for me.

It plays a role, but not as much as economics do.

[Vern]

[bobloblaw]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

Youre correct and that is why Amnesty is suicide for the GOP.

My favorite moron open border C of C GOP argument is that hispancs are socially conservative and thus will vote GOP. Well guess what?? Blacks are more socially conservative than whites and they NEVER vote GOP

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

Youre correct and that is why Amnesty is suicide for the GOP.

My favorite moron open border C of C GOP argument is that hispancs are socially conservative and thus will vote GOP. Well guess what?? Blacks are more socially conservative than whites and they NEVER vote GOP

Well, to be fair, the blacks have important historical social reasons for why they vote Democratic.

That doesn't exist amongst Hispanics. Similar to how groups like Catholics used to be near universally Dem, but are now much more even. African Americans have a huge difference between them and the immigrant groups who enter the country.

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

but again, it isn't changing right now. it's been around 60% for a while now.

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

Right, but not to 70 or 75%. It's been steady at 50 - 65% for decades now.

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

Right, but not to 70 or 75%. It's been steady at 50 - 65% for decades now.

50-65% is quite a range. The share of the white vote going to the GOP has been slowly rising for at least 10 years. I know it is frightening to you but the white vote will be as GOP as hispanics are Dem. 70-75% by 2030.

[YaBoyNY]

50-65% is quite a range. The share of the white vote going to the GOP has been slowly rising for at least 10 years. I know it is frightening to you but the white vote will be as GOP as hispanics are Dem. 70-75% by 2030.

What's frightening? That you're telling me that something is a fact even though we're 15 years out? It's frightening that you actually buy into this nonsense, yes, but I've already explained why the white vote is not the same as the Hispanic vote.

So, the share of the white vote for the GOP has been 55 - 59% since 2000. Between 2004 and 2008 is actually decreased. But don't let facts get in the way of the talking point you've got going there.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Relative to much larger drop in the overall popular vote though.


It goes without saying, if the two party system is to be preserved, the GOP will either break into Hispanics, or break into a great share of the White Working Class vote and change accordingly to achieve that end. The current GOP may not get above 60%, but is that any different from saying that the current GOP cannot get over 35% amongst Hispanics?

[windjammer]

Relative to much larger drop in the overall popular vote though.


It goes without saying, if the two party system is to be preserved, the GOP will either break into Hispanics, or break into a great share of the White Working Class vote and change accordingly to achieve that end. The current GOP may not get above 60%, but is that any different from saying that the current GOP cannot get over 35% amongst Hispanics?

Well,
In order to be more appealing to the latinos: they would have to moderate on social issues (immigration).
In order to be more appealing to the whites: they would have to moderate on economic issues.

The first scenario is more likely.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The two-party system may well have broken by then.

[Thunderbird is the word]

The two-party system may well have broken by then.

Barring the dissolution of the electoral college via constitutional amendment I see that as highly unlikely.

[Gass3268]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

Youre correct and that is why Amnesty is suicide for the GOP.

My favorite moron open border C of C GOP argument is that hispancs are socially conservative and thus will vote GOP. Well guess what?? Blacks are more socially conservative than whites and they NEVER vote GOP

Most polling shows that Hispanics are are more supportive of gay marriage and abortion than white Catholics.

[RINO Tom]

Relative to much larger drop in the overall popular vote though.


It goes without saying, if the two party system is to be preserved, the GOP will either break into Hispanics, or break into a great share of the White Working Class vote and change accordingly to achieve that end. The current GOP may not get above 60%, but is that any different from saying that the current GOP cannot get over 35% amongst Hispanics?

Well,
In order to be more appealing to the latinos: they would have to moderate on social issues (immigration).
In order to be more appealing to the whites: they would have to moderate on economic issues.

The first scenario is more likely.

Agreed.  Fiscal "conservatism" can't really be applied (at least with any serious, consistent meaning) to pre-New Deal America, but today it is often associated with being pro-business, which the GOP really has always been (as opposed to Democrats pretty much always supporting economic policies that are tailored to help the middle- and lower classes); I see no reason - given its donor base - why that will change.

If anything, I expect the GOP's share of the "working class White" vote to have decreased, maybe significantly, by 2040.  It would not surprise me if 2040 more closely resembled 2000 politics than it does 2014.

[Slander and/or Libel]

The two-party system may well have broken by then.

Barring the dissolution of the electoral college via constitutional amendment I see that as highly unlikely.

I think it's FPTP more than the EC that's propping up the two party system.

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

Wrong. Bush in 88 and 04 won 57% of the white vote. Romney won 59%, more than anyone else except Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984. The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.