rough 2040 electoral map

[Thunderbird is the word]

not sure what the exact electoral vote totals will be and this is admittedly based on pure speculation.

[Skill and Chance]

I expect immigration, birth rates and internal movement to the South and West to pick back up over the next two decades as we put the economic crash further behind us.  This would be for after the 2040 census reapportionment.  Basically, the demographic tide finally rolls in, both in the South and in the Rust Belt.  The result bears a strange resemblance to 1930's-1950's maps:

Democrats would have a big Senate problem.

[Thunderbird is the word]

There could be trends that we don't anticipate now though, like possibly a revived labor movement.

[Skill and Chance]

There could be trends that we don't anticipate now though, like possibly a revived labor movement.

If so, it would probably be minority-centric in presently low unionization states.

[windjammer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

[ElectionsGuy]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

[windjammer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

[ElectionsGuy]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

Yes, he over performed in the Midwest in general in 2008 (especially Illinois and Indiana). These have been Lean D states for a while, to surely suggest they won't change politically though is risky.

[windjammer]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

Yes, he over performed in the Midwest in general in 2008 (especially Illinois and Indiana). These have been Lean D states for a while, to surely suggest they won't change politically though is risky.

Of course it is, but I don't see a single reason why it would move in a such way. I don't expect whites to vote even less for democrats for example.

But that's just me, of course.

I personally believe republicans will be able to becomecompetitive again in states with a high hispanic population. The democrats won't be able to carry the hispanic vote by a such bigger margin than in 2012. That's why I don't believe states like Texas will become democrat one day for example.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

Yes, he over performed in the Midwest in general in 2008 (especially Illinois and Indiana). These have been Lean D states for a while, to surely suggest they won't change politically though is risky.

Of course it is, but I don't see a single reason why it would move in a such way. I don't expect whites to vote even less for democrats for example.

But that's just me, of course.

I personally believe republicans will be able to becomecompetitive again in states with a high hispanic population. The democrats won't be able to carry the hispanic vote by a such bigger margin than in 2012. That's why I don't believe states like Texas will become democrat one day for example.

The assumption of the map is population shrinkage I think, at least with regards to Michigan and Detroit. If Michigan loses five CDs like Skill and Chance suggests, the results would be substantial.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Assuming Republicans moderate on social issues as the Baby Boomers die off, gaining back their traditional strength in the suburbs.  Also assuming Democrats counter this development by realizing they need to win back "working class Whites" by focusing more on "kitchen table issues."

[bobloblaw]

Assuming Republicans moderate on social issues as the Baby Boomers die off, gaining back their traditional strength in the suburbs.  Also assuming Democrats counter this development by realizing they need to win back "working class Whites" by focusing more on "kitchen table issues."

Baby Boomers are social conservatives??? LOL. Listening to people talk about politics today, youd think the generation that coined the term "Tune In, Turn On and Drop Out" are a bunch of rabid rightwingers.
Support for Abortion is actually highest among those over 50, perhaps because they remember the days before Roe. It is Millennials who are the most prolife, not Boomers.

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

[Skill and Chance]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

I would not bet on that. 25 years ago people thought Virginia was solidly Republican, that it would never go Democratic.

I mean, I know people believe that because Obama carried these states by a smaller margin in 2012 than in 2008. The fact is that Obama really overperformed in WI, MI and PA in 2008. If you look at the results in 2004,2000, 1996, it is relatively similar than in 2012.

Yes, he over performed in the Midwest in general in 2008 (especially Illinois and Indiana). These have been Lean D states for a while, to surely suggest they won't change politically though is risky.

Of course it is, but I don't see a single reason why it would move in a such way. I don't expect whites to vote even less for democrats for example.

But that's just me, of course.

I personally believe republicans will be able to becomecompetitive again in states with a high hispanic population. The democrats won't be able to carry the hispanic vote by a such bigger margin than in 2012. That's why I don't believe states like Texas will become democrat one day for example.

The assumption of the map is population shrinkage I think, at least with regards to Michigan and Detroit. If Michigan loses five CDs like Skill and Chance suggests, the results would be substantial.

Yes, my assumption is that by 2040, at least half of Detroit/Cleveland/Philadelphia and at least 1/4th of Chicago now lives in Atlanta, Charlotte, and the D.C. area.  The most intolerant whites quickly move out of those areas and Mississippi when they find they are in the political minority by the late 2020's. 

Elsewhere, compromises on climate change policy (modest carbon tax and jobs programs building seawalls, desalinization, sustainable agriculture, etc.) and abortion (something like keeping it legal with a 12 week limit, required counseling and no taxpayer funding whatsoever while withdrawing federal funding from abstinence only sex ed) leads to a moderation of both the urban and rural vote.  Coastal whites outside of D.C. metro revert to the national mean.  With 11 more CDs worth of outsiders and the children of Mexican immigrants, Texas finally gets interesting.

[morgieb]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Go away.

[Skill and Chance]

My guess:

Republicans will NEVER. EVER. concede Florida and Texas. They will do everything to improve their showing with Hispanics. As the party becomes more moderate and does very well with White voters, IL/MI/PA, which are also losing population, are starting to trend heavily Republican.

Looking at NM strongly suggests that the "long run" Republican percentage with Hispanic voters is only in the 30's.  The better situation in Texas has more to do with the culture there skewing everyone right.  But if Texas truly does take on another 10-15 CDs, the culture will inevitably be pulled to the center and become less distinctly Texan.  

[bobloblaw]

My guess:

Republicans will NEVER. EVER. concede Florida and Texas. They will do everything to improve their showing with Hispanics. As the party becomes more moderate and does very well with White voters, IL/MI/PA, which are also losing population, are starting to trend heavily Republican.

Looking at NM strongly suggests that the "long run" Republican percentage with Hispanic voters is only in the 30's.  The better situation in Texas has more to do with the culture there skewing everyone right.  But if Texas truly does take on another 10-15 CDs, the culture will inevitably be pulled to the center and become less distinctly Texan.  

One problem with TX is the GOP at the state level gets a higher percentage of the hispanic vote (30-40%) than the Dems get of the white vote (25%). This will make TX closer, but it never flips permanently.

[bobloblaw]

My guess:

Republicans will NEVER. EVER. concede Florida and Texas. They will do everything to improve their showing with Hispanics. As the party becomes more moderate and does very well with White voters, IL/MI/PA, which are also losing population, are starting to trend heavily Republican.

Looking at NM strongly suggests that the "long run" Republican percentage with Hispanic voters is only in the 30's.  The better situation in Texas has more to do with the culture there skewing everyone right.  But if Texas truly does take on another 10-15 CDs, the culture will inevitably be pulled to the center and become less distinctly Texan.  

One problem with TX is the GOP at the state level gets a higher percentage of the hispanic vote (30-40%) than the Dems get of the white vote (25%). This will make TX closer, but it never flips permanently.

Also hispanics are Texans

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

[King]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

[YaBoyNY]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?