Bush vs. Dukakis today

[retromike22]

How would the election of 1988 turn out today?

[retromike22]

Bush: 271
Dukakis: 267

Side note: It's so bizarre to see that as recent as 1988, Texas is more Democratic than New Jersey, West Virginia is more Democratic than New York, Florida is over 60% Republican, and the Republican candidate won over 50% in Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, and Vermont. Also: Dukakis won Iowa by 10 points, but lost Michigan by 8 points; and Bush won Nevada by 21 points but lost Minnesota by 7 points.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:

Bush/Quayle       306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232

[Dr. Cynic]

with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:

Bush/Quayle       306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232

Dukakis would win Pennsylvania today. He'd do much better in the east than he did then.

[ElectionsGuy]

with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:

Bush/Quayle       306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232

Dukakis would win Pennsylvania today. He'd do much better in the east than he did then.

But Bush would do much better in the west.

[bobloblaw]

with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:

Bush/Quayle       306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232

Dukakis would win Pennsylvania today. He'd do much better in the east than he did then.

Im not so certain. PA is a state that hasnt changed so much from 1988 demographically. There is no reason why if we reran 1988, with today's demographics any of the eastern PA counties would flip from Bush to Dukakis. Afterall they are wealthy counties and a good economy with a GOP incumbent party would certainly boost GHW Bush there. Same with MI.

One thing people are missing is that the GOP hasnt really had a good year since 1988. The economy has been weak when their incumbents were running and strong or improving when Dem incumbents were running.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:

Bush/Quayle       306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232

Dukakis would win Pennsylvania today. He'd do much better in the east than he did then.

Im not so certain. PA is a state that hasnt changed so much from 1988 demographically. There is no reason why if we reran 1988, with today's demographics any of the eastern PA counties would flip from Bush to Dukakis. Afterall they are wealthy counties and a good economy with a GOP incumbent party would certainly boost GHW Bush there. Same with MI.

One thing people are missing is that the GOP hasnt really had a good year since 1988. The economy has been weak when their incumbents were running and strong or improving when Dem incumbents were running.

A Republican winning the popular vote by seven points nationally would be all but certain to carry PA. It mirrors the national average too closely.And unlike '88, he'd carry MN, WI, and IA (as Dubya did the latter in '04) too, while losing CA, IL, and a few other deep blue states.

But yeah, they haven't been able to run on "peace and prosperity" while the incumbents since 1988. That's just as much a problem as demographics.

[RFayette]

with 1988 international and economic conditions, but current demography and voting patterns:

Bush/Quayle       306
Dukakis/Bentsen 232

Dukakis would win Pennsylvania today. He'd do much better in the east than he did then.

Im not so certain. PA is a state that hasnt changed so much from 1988 demographically. There is no reason why if we reran 1988, with today's demographics any of the eastern PA counties would flip from Bush to Dukakis. Afterall they are wealthy counties and a good economy with a GOP incumbent party would certainly boost GHW Bush there. Same with MI.

One thing people are missing is that the GOP hasnt really had a good year since 1988. The economy has been weak when their incumbents were running and strong or improving when Dem incumbents were running.

A Republican winning the popular vote by seven points nationally would be all but certain to carry PA. It mirrors the national average too closely.And unlike '88, he'd carry MN, WI, and IA (as Dubya did the latter in '04) too, while losing CA, IL, and a few other deep blue states.

But yeah, they haven't been able to run on "peace and prosperity" while the incumbents since 1988. That's just as much a problem as demographics.

This.  What the GOP really needs is a Clinton screwup, and a recovering economy + peace for the next 4 years if they want a good victory.

[RINO Tom]

I'm going to assume you mean these two men are somehow the same age and running in "today's America" rather than the American electorate of 2014 reacting to the actual things they both said in 1988.  If both adjusted to the modern parties and climate, I think Bush still wins but not as comfortably: