my electoral map of April

[Former Democrat]

General election:

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL:

Hillary (D) 48.9%
Chris Christie (R) 44.9%

Hillary (D) 49.1%
Marco Rubio (R) 46.1%
Hillary (D) 48.6%
Rand Paul (R) 47.6%
Hillary (D) 47.5%
Jeb Bush (R) 48.1%
Hillary (D) 49.7%
Ted Cruz (R) 45.8%
Hillary (D) 52.3%
Mike Huckabee (R) 43.9%
Hillary (D) 52.0%
Ben Carson (R) 42.7%
Hillary (D) 53%
John Kasich (R) 42%
Hillary (D) 49.3%
Scott Walker (R) 45.8%
Hillary (D) 49.5%
Rick Perry (R) 45.8%

Joe Biden (D) 40.3%
Jeb Bush (R) 44.3%
Joe Biden (D) 35.4%
Chris Christie (R) 46.0%
Joe Biden (D) 44.2%
Marco Rubio (R) 38.4%
Joe Biden (D) 43.0%
Ted Cruz (R) 35.5%
Joe Biden (D) 44.1%
Rand Paul (R) 38.8%
Mike Huckabee (R) 46%
Joe Biden (D) 41%

Chris Christie (R) 45%
Andrew Cuomo (D) 28%
Andrew Cuomo (D) 37%
Marco Rubio (R) 37%

Chris Christie (R) 43%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 33.5%
Mike Huckabee (R) 38.5%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
Jeb Bush (R) 39.5%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 37.5%
Rand Paul (R) 35%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 34%
Marco Rubio (R) 31%
Elizabeth Warren (D) 35%

Jeb Bush – Hillary Clinton:

Jeb Bush 192
Hillary Clinton 152
Toss-up 038

AK: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 50.8/39.2
AR: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 50.2/43.3
AZ: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 45/44
CO: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 44.1/43.5
CT: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 41.8/51
DC: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 10/90
FL: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 50.6/43.8
GA: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 48.7/44.5
IA: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 47.5/43.2
ID: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 58.5/33
KS: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 55.0/38.5
KY: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 52.7/40.2
LA: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 52.8/42.3
MA: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 39.5/59
MD: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 41.5/51
ME: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 32/55
MI: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 43.9/48.8
MN: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 45/49
MO: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 55/40
MS: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 51.7/42
MT: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 56.0/36.7
NC: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 47.8/45.8
NH: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 47.6/45.6
NJ: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 38.4/55.5
NM: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 41/51.5
NV: Jeb Bush/ Hillary Clinton 44.2/48
NY: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 35.2/55.6
OH: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 45.7/45.5
OR: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 42.5/51
PA: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 45.3/47.7
SC: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 52.8/43.5
TX: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 48.8/42.2
VA: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 48.3/45
WI: Jeb Bush/ Hillary Clinton 44.6/48.5
WV: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 52/38
WY: Jeb Bush/Hillary Clinton 58/31


Ben Carson – Hillary Clinton

Ben Carson 024
Hillary Clinton 062
Toss-up 007

CT: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 45.5/45
DC: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 10/90
FL: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 46/49
NC: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 50.3/44.7
PA: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 43/51
SC: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 48/41
WI: Ben Carson/Hillary Clinton 44.5/49


Chris Christie – Hillary Clinton:

Chris Christie 134
Hillary Clinton 101
Toss-up 116

AK: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 51.5/36.5
AR: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 47.1/42.8
AZ: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 41/44
CO: Chris Christie / Hillary Clinton 45.3/43.6
CT: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 42.3/50.5
FL: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 46.2/46.5
GA: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 46.3/44
IA: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 45.1/43.5
ID: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 55.5/33
KS: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 51.6/38.6
KY: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 47/42
LA: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 48.1/44.1
ME: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 39/47
MI: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 43.5/47.0
MN: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 42.7/45.5
MS: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 50.7/41
MT: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 54.7/35.1
NC: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 48.4/44.7
NH: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 44.6/42.4
NJ: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 40.3/54.3
NM: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 35/53
NV: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 45.2/47.5
NY: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 36.0/50.8
OH: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 45.7/43.9
OR: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 41.5/51
PA: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 45.6/47.2
SC: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 48.3/39.5
TX: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 44.3/41.1
VA: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 47.0/45.6
WI: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 44.8/48.4
WV: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 47/38
WY: Chris Christie/Hillary Clinton 56/28



Ted Cruz – Hillary Clinton:

Ted Cruz 096
Hillary Clinton 153
Toss-up 068

AK: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 53.5/39
AR: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 49/42.5
CO: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 46.9/45.0
CT: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 38/54.5
DC: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 10/90
FL: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 44.9/47.8
GA: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 47/47
IA: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 45.1/46.3
ID: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 58/34
KS: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 50.7/42
KY: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 47.7/45
LA: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 51.2/44.5
ME: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 30/57
MI: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 42.1/49.8
MN: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 42/51
MS: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 49/44.5
MT: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 54.3/39
NC: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 47.2/47.4
NH: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 40.3/42.8
NM: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 37/54
NY: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 33.5/60
OH: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 43.2/44.4
OR: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 42.5/52
PA: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 43.6/50.6
SC: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 48/42.5
TX: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 49.3/43.7
VA: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 37.3/49.5
WI: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 42.6/51.1
WV: Ted Cruz/Hillary Clinton 44/41


Mike Huckabee – Hillary Clinton

Mike Huckabee 106
Hillary Clinton 150
Toss-up 077

AK: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 49.8/40.1
AR: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 54.3/41.2
AZ: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 41/47
CO: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 47.2/44.5
CT: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 38.5/54.5
DC: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 10/90
FL: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 45.8/47.6
GA: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 48.5/48
IA: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 46.8/45.3
ID: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 59/34
KS: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 52.5/41.4
KY: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 47/44
LA: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 50/44.5
MI: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 44/49.5
MN: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 45/50
MS: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 53.5/42
MT: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 58.5/33
NC: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 49.8/45.4
NH: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 38.1/36.6
NJ: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 38.5/56.5
NM: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 34/55
NY: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 35.5/58
OH: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 44.2/46.7
OR: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 44/51
PA: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 45.1/49.8
SC: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 49/41
TX: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 50/42
VA: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 46.7/47.6
WI: Mike Huckabee/Hillary Clinton 45.6/48.5



Rand Paul – Hillary Clinton

Rand Paul 133
Hillary Clinton 188
Toss-up 116

AK: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 51.2/39.2
AR: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 49.7/43.2
AZ: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 43/46
CA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 37.5/43.5
CO: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 49.0/43.4
CT: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 39.7/52.5
DC: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 10/90
FL: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 47.0/47.7
GA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 46.7/47.5
IA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 46.4/44.5
ID: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 59.5/33
KS: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 55.0/38.7
KY: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 52.1/42.9
LA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 51.3/43.6
MA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 37.5/61
MD: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 41.5/51
ME: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 32/57
MI: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 44.8/48.2
MN: Rand Paul/Hillary Clnton 44.5/49
MO: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 52.5/42
MS: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 49.3/43.5
MT: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 55.8/37.9
NC: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 49.3/45.3
NH: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 47.7/46.2
NJ: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 39.8/54.0
NM: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 43.5/49
NV: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 45.9/49
NY: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 34.8/56.5
OH: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 46.2/45.9
OR: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 44/51
PA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 47.6/47.9
SC: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 51/43
TX: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 49/42
VA: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 47.4/47.3
WI: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 47.1/48.1
WV: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 49/39
WY: Rand Paul/Hillary Clinton 58/32


Rick Perry – Hillary Clinton

Rick Perry 009
Hillary Clinton 003
Toss-up 110

FL: Rick Perry/Hillary Clinton 44.3/45.2
NC: Rick Perry/Hillary Clinton 48.5/47
OH: Rick Perry/Hillary Clinton 42/40
SC: Rick Perry/Hillary Clinton 48/43
TX: Rick Perry/Hillary Clinton 46.5/46
WI: Rick Perry/Hillary Clinton 46/48



Marco Rubio – Hillary Clinton

Marco Rubio 021
Hillary Clinton 155
Toss-up 113

AK: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 43.5/42.5
AR: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 30/61
CO: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 45/47
CT: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 40.5/53
FL: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 48.3/47.1
GA: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 46/49
IA: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 45.1/46.3
KS: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 47/42
KY: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 40/47
LA: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 43/46
MI: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 36.5/52
MN: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 37/50
MT: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 50/42
NC: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 46/47.5
NH: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 41.7/41.2
NY: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 36.5/58
OH: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 44.1/43.2
PA: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 44.2/49.5
SC: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 47/40
TX: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 45/46
VA: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 43.2/49.4
WI: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 36.5/51.5
WY: Marco Rubio/Hillary Clinton 59/32



Scott Walker – Hillary Clinton

Scott Walker 046
Hillary Clinton 121
Toss-up 049

CO: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 49/42
CT: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 40/53
FL: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 45.8/48
IA: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 45.3/46.3
MA: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 40/58
MO: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 54/40
MT: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 56/37
NC: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 49/45.5
NH: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 47.5/46.6
NJ: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 34.5/60
NV: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 46.3/49
NY: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 36.5/58
OH: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 45/49
PA: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 47.5/46
SC: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 51.3/44
VA: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 43.3/45.5
WI: Scott Walker/Hillary Clinton 45.5/51.8

https://strehlspresidentialelection2016.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/my-monthly-primary-and-general-election-electoral-map-of-april/

[retromike22]

You're not a polling company.

[Former Democrat]

I am doing this since 2000 and have a very good record

my error quote is under 2%

[Devils30]

Carson is gonna beat Clinton in Connecticut!

[Former Democrat]

yes it was a poll last year but I doubt he would do in the end

[YaBoyNY]

I am doing this since 2000 and have a very good record

my error quote is under 2%

It's about to shoot up to above 50% then.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wait... this guy has HRC losing GA to Bush by 4, but losing FL by 7?

[pbrower2a]

The faults with the poll compounding above are:

1. There is no display of methodology
2. There is no time limit on any poll (mine date only to after the 2014 election)
3. There is no identification of sources
4. The compounding relies heavily upon the results of elections over the last twenty years

Mine may not tell you yet how anyone does in Texas, but nobody yet has a poll of Texas. Where I have no reliable data I show nothing.

Yes, I took this set of poll composites from my own thread, but you can see the thread and you can see my comments as well as those of others. There will be shaky polls out there... but polling activity has a way of discrediting those. There will be pollsters coming into the business (and I will check their polls against others). Thus if a poll comes out from the William Howard Taft Institute (I made that up) at Ohio State University and it concurs with PPP and Quinnipiac it is probably good. If it comes from the University of Michigan at Grand Rapids... maybe I will catch that one (there is no University of Michigan at Grand Rapids, so that would be a give-away). I reject internal polls on principle.

OK, so you are likely to assume that if "Massachusetts will never vote for the Republican nominee for President except in a blowout" or "Mississippi will never vote for the Democratic nominee for President except in a blowout", such may be good for predictions. Polling is the test. I was surprised to see West Virginia go for Dubya in 2000 in a close election -- likewise Virginia in 2008. Polling can show a change. 

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

Hillary Clinton vs. Chris Christie

 

Hillary Clinton vs. Mike Huckabee

Hillary Clinton vs. Rand Paul

Hillary Clinton vs. Scott Walker

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

[King]

Jao

[Former Democrat]

Yes Jeb Bush would win FL clearly I din't say by 7 in the end but today YES! To watch my record go to my FB gpoup: Presidential election 2016 therr you find a thread with my 2012 predictions

[Former Democrat]

Hi there! Let`s start the analysis of the election 2012! Most of the pollsters and experts expected a lower tournout for the Dems and a much higher and  energized tournout for the GOP! I followed tehm and even if I don`t trusted Rasmussen with their R+1-5 projection I expected a D+1 or even electorate! We all were wrong! Much wrong as you can! In 2008 it was a D+7 year-what was big. In 2012 it was after a tie in 2010 a D+6. in respect of that it`s small wonder that the election was so close and not another landslide for Obama but there was no way to overcome. The red states  are more red and the blue states less blue as in 2008 but the swing states are only a little bit less blue! Obama lost the white voters(60/39) and voters older as 39years but a huge african-american and huge young voter tournout and that more as in 2008 of the very conservatives voters stayed home again rescued him over the line even with losing the Indy voters big- a tournaround of 13% So naive and blindness was the rescue answer for Obama! Very sad for this country!!! Obama was more the female(55/44) candidate and Mitt the male candidate(52/45)In most of the states Obama won the female vote but still losing the white female voters but winning with 90% the AA female votes and the hispanic female votes!!
 
Here the analysis state by state:
 
ALabama:
This was a safe Romney state and easy to made!
the polls showed Romney winning by 54.4/35.5
my prediction was Romney 61.4/38.5
the final result was: Romney 60.7/38.4
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.7/+0.1
big race gap
R+9 but I had AL R+11
Romney won the Independent voters 75/23
 
AlasKa:
Another safe Romney state!
polls: 52/40 Romney
my prediction: 55.3/41.8 Romney
result: 54.4/41.2
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.9/+0.6
 
AriZona:
A solid Romney state:
polls: 53.7/44.3 Romney
my prediction: 53.7/44.3 Romney
result: 54.1/43.9 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -0.4/+0.4
I used a R+7 but AZ was R+9
Romney won the Independent voters 51/45
 
ARkansas:
Another safe Romney state!
polls: 56.2/32.4 Romney
my prediction: 63.4/35.6 Romney
result: 60.6/36.8 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +2.8/-0.8
 
CAlifornia:
A solid Obama state!
polls: 53.1/43.3 Obama
my prediction: 53.8/44.8 Obama
result: 59.1/38.5 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -5.3/+6.3
Obama won male and female vote!
Obama won Independent vote by 55/39
I used a D+9 sample but CA was D+17
 
COlorado:
A weak Obama state!
polls: 50.5/48 Romney
my prediction: 51.4/48.6 Romney
result: 51.2/46.4
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -2.6/+5.0
Obama won male and female vote barely
Romney won clear the white voters(54/44); Obama overwelming the hispanic voters(75/23)
Romney won the Independent voters 49/45
I used a R+3 sample based on the party registration by SoS
but CO was D+5 in the end!
 
ConnecTicut:
A safe Obama state:
polls: 54.2/43.4 Obama
my prediction: 55.8/44.2 Obama
result: 58.0/40.8 Obama
my quota of error: -2.2/+3.4
Obama won the female and male voters but only abrely the white voters(51/48) but huge the AA`s(93%) and hispanic voters(79%)
Even the Independent voters went with Obama (51/46)
I used a D+10 sample but CT was D+15
 
DElaware:
A safe Obama state!
polls: 62/37 Obama
my prediction: 60/39 Obama
result: 58.6/39.9 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: +1.4/-0.9
 
DC:
A safe Obama state!
polls: 86.3/09.4 Obama
my prediction: 90.6/09.4 Obama
result: 91.1/07.1 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -0.5/+2.3
 
FLorida:
A weak Obama state!
polls: 51/47.8 Romney
my prediction: 51.7/48.2 Romney
result: 50/49.1 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.8/+2.6
Obama won female(53/46); Romney male voters(52/46)
Obama won 18-39years voters
Romney won white voters 61/37; AA`s went for Obama(95%) and Latinos(60/39)
I used a R+1 sample but after a tie in 2010 was FL D+2 in 2012
Obama won Independents 50/47
 
GeorgiA:
a solid Romney state!
polls: 54.5/43.6 Romney
my prediction: 55.1/43.9 Romney
result: 53.4/45.4 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +1.7/-1.5
 
HawaiI:
Safe Obama state:
polls: 59.5/31 Obama
prediction: 65.5/33.5 Obama
result: 70.5/27.9 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -5/+5.6
 

[Former Democrat]

IDaho:
Strong Romney state! Obama got 3.3% less than in 2008
polls: 61.8/32.5 Romney
my prediction: 63/33 Romney
result: 64.5/32.6 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -1.5/+0.7
 
ILlinois:
Solid Obama state! Obama got 4.3% less than in 2008
polls: 54/43.6 Obama
my prediction: 55.4/44.6 Obama
result: 57.5/40.8
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -2.1/+3.8
Obama won male and female voters!
Obama won each age voter group!
I used a D+10 sample but on election day IL was D+17
Obama even won the independent voters in his home state!
 
INdiana:
In 2008 Obama won the state narrowly! This time Obama got 6.2% less than in 2008!
This time it is a solid Romney state!
polls: 55.7/41.2 Romney
my prediction: 57/42 Romney
result: 54.3/43.7
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +2.7/-1.7
Obama won the female vote(52/48); Romney won the male vote(57/40)
Romney won every age group!
Romney won the white voters 60/38
I used a R+14 sample outcome wasa R+5
 
IowA:
This battleground state is a weak Obama state! obama got 2% less than in 2008
polls: 51.1/47.7 Romney
my prediction: 51.8/48.2 Romney
result: 51.8/46.3
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -3.6/+5.5
Obama won the female vote(59/40); Romney won the male vote(53/44)
Obama won the white votes 51/47
I used a R+3 party ID after registration numbers by IA SoS
but in the end it was tied!
Obama won the Independents 55/41
 
KanSas:
A safe Romney state! Obama got 3.6% less than in 2008
polls: 54/35.6 Romney
my prediction: 60.8/39.2 Romney
result: 60.3/38
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.5/+1.2
Romney won the male vote(69/29 and the female vote(51/47)
Romney won every age group!
Romney won the white vote 64/33
in 2008 KS was R+23 now: R+21
Romney won the Independents 51/43
 
KentuckY:
A safe Romney state! Obama got 3.3% less than in 2008
polls: 55/39 Romney
my prediction: 57.6/40.4 Romney
result: 60.5/37.8 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -2.9/+2.6
 
LouisinA: A solid Romney state! Obama got 0.6% more votes than in 2008
polls: 51.3/37.5 Romney
my prediction: 58.5/41.4 Romney
result: 57.8/40.6 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.7/+0.8
 
MainE: A solid Obama state! Obama got 1.75% less than in 2008
polls: 51/44.1 Obama
my prediction: 53.3/45.7 Obama
result: 55.9/40.9 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -2.6/+4.8
Obama won the male vote(50/46) and the female vote(64/34)
Obama won in every age group!
Obama won the white voters 57/40
I used a D+5 sample and it was D+5!
Independents went 61/33 for Obama
 
MarylandD: A safe Obama state! Obama got 0.6% less than in 2008!
polls: 56.4/39 Obama
my prediction: 59.4/40.6 Obama
result: 61.2/36.6 Obama
quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.8/+4
Obama won male vote(57/41) and female vote(65/34)
Obama won in every age group
Romney won teh white voters 55/43
Obama won AA`s with 97%
I used a D+20 sample MD was D+25 in 2012
Even the Independents went for Obama (53/41)
 
MAssachusetts: A safe Obama state! Obama got 1% less than in 2008!
polls: 60.5/38.2 Obama
my projection: 61.3/38.7 Obama
result: 60.8/37.6 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: +0.5/+0.9
Obama won the male and female votes
Obama won every age group
Obama won white voters 57/42
I used a D+23 in the end it was D+22
Even the Independents went 52/45 for Obama
 
MIchigan: A solid Obama state! Obama got 3% less than in 2008!
polls: 50.3/47 Obama
my projection: 51.4/48.6 Obama
result. 54.3/44.8 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -2.9/+3.8
Obama won the male vote(50/48) and the female vote(57/42)
Obama won the 18-64 age group; Romney won the 65+ age group 52/48
Romney won the white voters 55/44 and Obama the AA`s 95%
I used a D+5 sample but MI was D+10
Romney won barely the Independents 49/48
 
MiNnesota:A solid Obama state! Obama got 1.4% less than in 2008!
polls: 48.9/47 Obama
my projection: 50.2/48.8 Obama
result: 52.6/45 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.6/+3.3
Romney won the male vote(51/44); Obama won teh female vote(60/38)
Obama won every age group only with the 45-64 age group he`s tied at 49%
Romney won barely the White voters 49/48
I used a D+3 samplebut MN was D+8 in 2012
Independents went for Obama 50/44
 
MiSsissippi: A safe Romney state! Obama got 0.5% more than in 2008
polls: 50/38 Romney
my prediction: 58.4/41.6 Romney
result: 55.6/43.5 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +2.8/-1.9
Romney won the female vote(53/46) and the male vote(58/40)
Obama only won the young voters of 18-29 (55/43)
Romney won the White vote with 89%
Obama won the AA`s with 96%
I used a R+5 sample but MS was R+4
The independents went 64/30 for Romney
 
MissOuri: A solid Romney state! McCain won the state narrowly in 2008. Obama got 5% less tahn in 2008!
polls: 52.3/44.8 Romney
my projection: 53.5/45.5 Romney
result: 53.8/44.3 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -0.3/-1.2
Romney won the femal vote(53/45) and the male vote(54/43)
Obama only won the young voters (58/39)
White voters went 65/32 for Romney
AA`s went 94% for Obama
I used a R+2 sample but MO was D+2
Independents went 59/35 for Romney
 
MonTana: A solid Romney state! Obama got 5.6% less than in 2008
polls: 53.1/44.6 Romney
my projection: 53.9/45.1
result: 55.5/41.6 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -1.6/+3.5
Romney won the female vote(52/46) and the male vote(59/37)
Romney won every age group
Romney won white voters 59/38
Obama won Latino voters 74/23
I used a R+4 sample but MT was R+6
The Independents went 53/40 for Romney
 
 
NEbraska: A safe Romney state! In 2008 Obama was the first Democrats since 1964 to win an electoral vote from there. Not this time! H elost clearly in NE and got 03.8% less than in 2008!
polls: 55/39.9 Romney
my prediction: 57.7/41.3 Rmney
results: 60.4/37.8 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -2.7/+3.5
 
NeVada: A weak Obama state! Obama got 02.9% less than in 2008!
polls: 50.9/48.5 Obama
my projection: 50.9/49.1 Obama
results: 52.3/45.7 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.4/+3.4
Romney won barely the male vote(49/48) and Obama the female vote(57/41)
Obama won the younger voters and Romney the older ones!
I used a D+4sample but NV was D+10
The independents went 50/43 for Romney

[Former Democrat]

New Hampshire: A weak Obama state! Obama got 2.2% less than in 2008
polls: 50/49 Obama
my prediction: 50.1/49.2 Obama
results: 51.9/46.4 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.8/+2.8
Obama won female(even the white female) votes(58/42) and Romney won the male votes(51/47)
Obama won the 18-39 ages and Romney the older ones!
I used a R+3 sample supported by the NH SoS nregistration numbers NH was D+3
 
New Jesrey: A solid Obama state! Obama got 0.7% more votes than in 2008
polls: 52.6/43.7 Obama
my prediction: 54.1/44.9 Obama
results: 57.9/41.1
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -3.8/+3.8
Obama won male(55/43) and female votes(62/38) but Romney white female(58/42) and white male voters(54/44). Obama won AA`s gender with 96%
Obama won 18-34 ages; Romney 65+
I used a D+13 sample but NJ was D+18
Romney won narrowly the Independent voters (49/48)
 
New Mexico: A solid Obama state! Obama got 4.1% less than in 2008!
polls: 51.8/44.4
my prediction: 52.3/44.7
results: 52.8/43 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -0.5/+1.7
Obama won female(55/41) and male voters(50/45) but lost the white female(55/43) and white male(56/39) won Latino female voters(67/27) and Latino male voters(63/31)
I used a D+13 sample but NM was only D+12
Romney won the Independents 48/41
 
New York: A safe Obama state! Obama got only 0.3%less than in 2008!
polls: 57.5/40.6 Obama
my prediction: 58.1/40.9 Obama
results: 62.6/36 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -3.5/+4.9
Obama won all age groups!
Obama won the femal(68/31) and the male voters(56/42) but lost the white male voters(43/55) Obama won the AA`s (96%) and the Latinos(93%)
I used a D+17 sample but NY was D+23 in 2012
Even the Independent voters went for Obama (50/44)
 
North Carolina: A weak Romney state. NC went narrowly for Obama in 2008! He got 1.55 less than in 2008!
polls: 53/45.9 Romney
my prediction: 53.7/46.3 Romney
results: 50.5/48.2 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +3.2/-1.9
Romney won the male voters(54/45) and Obama the female voters(51/49) but lost the White voters(33/67) to Romney and the male voters went for Romney(68/30) too!
Obama won 18-39 ages; Romney won the 40+ ages!
I used a D+4 sample but NC was D+6
Romney won the independents 57/42
 
North Dakota: A safe Romney state! Obama got 5.8% less than in 2008!!
polls: 54.7/38.3 Romney
my prediction: 58.9/41.1 Romney
results: 58.3/38.7 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.6/+2.4
 
OHio: A weak Obama state. He got 01.2% less than in 2008
polls: 50.4/48.2 Romney
my prediction: 51.2/48.8 Romney
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.4/+2.9
Romney won the male voters(52/45) and Obama the female voters(55/44) although he lost the white female voters(53/46) and the white male voters(62/36) but he won the AA`s male and female voters with 96%
Obama won the 18-39 ages; Romney won the 40+ ages
I used a D+1 sample after a R+1 in 2010 but OH was D+7
Romney won the Independents 53/43
 
OKlahoma: A strong Romney state! 2012 he got 1.3% less than in 2008
polls: 59.5/31.2
my prediction: 65.5/34.5 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -1.2/+1.3
 
ORegon: A solid Obama state! But he got 2.4%less than in 2008
polls: 49.9/45.9 Obama
my prediction: 50.4/46.6 Obama
quota of error: Obama/Romney: -4/+4.3
Obama won the male voters(50/46) and the female voters(58/41)
Romney only won the 30-39 ages!
I used a D+6 sample but OR was D+9
Obama even won the Independents 52/43
 
PennsylvAnia: A weak Obama state! But he got 2.7% less than in 2008
polls: 48.7/48.9 Romney
my prediction: 49.6/49.4 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -2.2/+1.1
Romney won the mal voters(51/48) and Obama the female voters(56/43) but Romney won the white males(60/39) and the white females(54/45) and Obama won the AA`s with 93%
Obama won the ages 18-49; Romney won the 50+
I used a D+4 sample but PA was D+10
Romney won the Independents 50/45
 
Rhode Island: A strong Obama state! He got the same % numbers like in 2008 but 17.323 votes less than in 2008
polls: 55/35.8 Obama
my prediction: 61/39 Obama
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -1.8/+3.7
 
South Carolina: A solid Romney state. Obama got 0.9% less than in 2008
polls. 44.9/38 Romney
my prediction: 56.8/43.2 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +2.2/-0.8
 
South Dakota: A strong Romney state. Obama got 5% less than in 2008
polls: 51.3/39.9 Romney
my prediction: 57/43
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -0.8/+0.1
 
TeNnessee: A strong Romney state! Obama got 2.8% less tahn in 2008
polls: 56.8/39.2
my prediction: 59.6/40.4
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.1/+1.3
 
TeXas: A strong Romney state! Obama got 2.3% less than in 2008
polls: 55.2/41.8 Romney
my prediction: 57.2/42.8 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: 0/+1.4
 
UTah: A strong Romney state! Obama got 9.5% less than in 2008!
polls: 69.2/23.4 Romney
my prediction: 73.7/25.3
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: +0.9/+0.5
 
VermonT: A strong Obama state! But he got 1% less than in 2008
polls: 57.9/37.4 Obama
my prediction: 58.4/37.6 Obama
my quota of error: -8.1/+6.6
Obama won the male(60/38) and the female voters(73/26)
I used a D+8 sample but VT was D+16
 
VirginiA: A weak Obama state. In 2008 Obama was the first Democrat to win VA after 1964 he barely won VA again but got 1.6% less tahn in 2008
polls: 51/47.9 Obama
my prediction: 52/47 Romney
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -4/+4.6
Romney won the male voters(51/47) and Obama the female voters(54/45) Romney won white males(64/34) and white females(59/40) Obama won the AA`s 91% + 95%
Obama won the 18-39 ages, 40-49 ages are split and Romney won the 50+
I used a R+1 sample but VA was D+7
Romney won the Independents 54/43
 
WAshington: A solid Obama state! But he got 1.2% less than in 2008
polls: 52.5/46.2
my prediction: 52.7/46.3
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -3.4/+5
Obama won the male voters(53/44) and the female voters(59/41)
I used a D+6 sample but WA was D+13
Obama won the Independents 50/47
 
West Virginia: A strong Romney state! Obama got 7% less than in 2008
polls: 51.6/37.3 Romney
my prediction: 59.4/40.6 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -2.9/+5.1
 
WIsconsin: A weak Obama state! But he got 3.4% less than in 2008
polls: 49.7/49.2 Obama
my prediction: 50.2/49.8 Romney
my quota of error: Obama/Romney: -3/+4.1
Romney won the male voters(51/47) and Obama the female voters(57/42) but Romney won the white males(56/42) and Obama the white females(53/46) the AA`s went 90% for Obama
Obama won the 18-39 ages; Romney the 40+
I used a D/R+o sample but WI was D+5
The Independents went 49/47 for Obama
 
WYoming: A strong Romney state. Obama got 4.7% less than in 2008
polls: 65/33 Romney
my prediction: 68/30 Romney
my quota of error: Romney/Obama: -4.7/+5.2

[Likely Voter]

I'm not sure I understand the point of this thread, but from those predictions the OP was a poll truther in 2012 with Dick Morris like skills, who now wants us to take his 2016 analysis seriously?

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not sure I understand the point of this thread, but from those predictions the OP was a poll truther in 2012 with Dick Morris like skills, who now wants us to take his 2016 analysis seriously?

Wait a minute....

"Poll truther"
2012
"My numbers"
Germany

Is Ben Romney back?!

Wait... this guy has HRC losing GA to Bush by 4, but losing FL by 7?

Trying to remove my bias here...I don't think it's the most outlandish premise when considering a variety of elements, but it's still unlikely.

Jeb will do better in FL than an average Republican most likely, for obvious reasons...but Hillary may be able to say the same on her end: the question is whether the former overcomes the latter (personally, I think it does). Then there is whether or not a "Clinton rebound" proves viable in (real) Southern states. Then one needs to consider the elasticity of each state (or the lack thereof) and whether or not/which minority group will swing R more (black or Latino; Georgia versus Florida).

[The Free North]

I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm very confused as to what is going on in here.

[Former Democrat]

you can ignoe me but not the truth

I am doing this since 2000 and have a very good record as you can see above

[pbrower2a]

It's always easy to make obvious predictions: in 2016, Idaho is going to go for the republican and Rhode Island is going to go for the Democrat unless there is a 49-state blowout or something of the sort. Political culture matters within a state.

Quality of the politicians? As campaigners or fund raisers? Sure. Overall quality on other matters? Not now. Political culture in the various states matters greatly. Republicans are tailor-made to fit certain cultures and offend others, and Democrats are the same. I wish that politicians were unable to win just by affiliating with stock-car racing and country music, but that is how George W. Bush won.

Of course -- what people turn out to vote matters greatly. Such is the difference between 2006, when moderates thought that the GOP was a disaster, and 2010 when things weren't improving fast enough.       

[King]

you can ignoe me but not the truth

I am doing this since 2000 and have a very good record as you can see above

We're not trying to ignoe you. We really have no idea what is going on.

jao

[The Other Castro]

My only question is: When did OC move to NY, change his name, and become a Republican?

[Former Democrat]

I am doing this electoral map every month

enjoy it

my Facebookgroup is about 5000 members

[jeron]

I am doing this since 2000 and have a very good record

my error quote is under 2%

If the point of this thread was to prove that you were right, you failed. You incorrectly predicted Romney as the winner in five states: WI, IA, FL, OH and VA (which also means that you thought Romney would win the election). That's an error quote of 10% and not 2%. You overestimated Romney in the Northeast, the Pacific and parts of the Midwest .

[Former Democrat]

lol and I told why I was wrong in 5states

here`s my record of the mid-terms

AL: Jeff Sessions* 62.7%                  unopposed 00.0%               Other 11.8%
Prediction Jeff Session 72.9%



AK: Dan Sullivan 49.8%                  Mark Begich* 44.1%               Mark Fish 03.0%
Prediction   Dan Sullivan 51.8%                           Mark Begich 45.1%
Result    Dan Sullivan 49.0%                           Mark Begich 45.3%





AR: Tom Cotton 52.1%                     Mark Pryor* 43.6%               Nathan LaFrance 02.9%
Prediction   Tom Cotton 53.0%                           Mark Pryor 44.0%
Result    Tom Cotton 56.5%                           Mark Pryor 39.5%




CO: Cory Gardner 47.4%                  Mark Udall* 43.7%               Steve Shogan 04.8%
Prediction   Cory Gardner 50.1%                           Mark Udall 45.1%
Result    Cory Gardner 48.5%                           Mark Udall 46.0%



DE: Kevin Wade 35.5%                  Chris Coons* 52.5%            Andrew Groff 09.3%
Prediction   Kevin Wade 37.1%                           Chris Coons 53.6%
Result    Kevin Wade 42.2%                           Chris Coons 55.8%



GA: David Perdue* 48.4%               Michelle Nunn 44.9%            Amanda Swafford 03.5%
Prediction   David Perdue 49.7%                           Michelle Nunn 46.8%
Result   David Perdue 53.0%                           Michelle Nunn 45.1%



HI:   Cam Cavasso 24.5%               Brian Schatz* 61.5%
Prediction   Cam Cavasso 32.9%                           Brian Schatz 67.0%
Result   Cam Cavasso 27.7%                           Brian Schatz 69.8%



ID: Jim Risch* 58.5%                     Nels Mitchell 29.8%
Prediction   Jim Risch 63.2%                              Nels Mitchell 36.8%
Result   Jim Risch 65.3%                              Nels Mitchell 34.7%




IL: Jim Oberweis 40.9%                  Richard Durbin* 51.7%         Sharon Hansen 02.7%
Prediction   Jim Oberweis 43.7%                           Richard Durbin 53.5%
Result   Jim Oberweis 43.2%                           Richard Durbin 53.1%



      
IA: Joni Ernst 48.4%                  Bruce Braley* 45.6%         Others: 02.2%      
Prediction   Joni Ernst 50.9%                           Bruce Braley 46.9%
Result   Joni Ernst 52.2%                           Bruce Braley 43.7%

 

KS: Pat Roberts* 49.2%               Greg Orman 44.7%            Randall Batson 03.0%
Prediction   Pat Roberts 50.4%                           Greg Orman 46.5%
Result   Pat Roberts 53.3%                           Greg Orman 42.5%





KY: Mitch McConnell* 50.3%                  Alison Lundergan Grimes 41.7%      David Patterson 04.0%
Prediction   Mitch McConnell 51.9%                        Alison Lundergan Grimes 44.1%
Result   Mitch McConnell 56.2%                        Alison Lundergan Grimes 40.7%

[Former Democrat]

LA:   Bill Cassidy 35.4%                  Mary Landrieu* 42.5%            RobManess 14.3%
         Bill Cassidy 55.9%                  Mary Landrieu 38.1%            in December run-off
   Prediction   Bill Cassidy 40.5%                        Mary Landrieu 45.2%
   Result   Bill Cassidy 41.0%                        Mary Landrieu 42.1%
   Prediction   Bill Cassidy 59.8%                        Mary Landrieu 40.2%
   Result   Bill Cassidy 55.9%                        Mary Landrieu 44.1%


MA: Brian Herr 35.4%                  Ed Markey*   51.9%            Others 01.9%
Prediction   Brian Herr 41.9%                           Ed Markey 56.2%
Resut   Brian Herr 38.0%                           Ed Markey 62.0%




ME: Susan Collins* 58.6%               Shenna Bellows 34.8%         Others 03.0%
Prediction   Susan Collins 60.0%                           Shenna Bellows 36.9%
Result   Susan Collins 68.4%                           Shenna Bellows 31.6%



MI: Terri Lynn Land 39.7%               Gary Peters* 52.7%               Others: 03.2%
Prediction   Terri Lynn Land 42.3%                        Gary Peters 54.4%
Result   Terri Lynn Land 41.4%                        Gary Peters 54.6%





MN: Mike McFadden 41.3%               Al Franken* 51.0%               Steve Carlson 04.8%
Prediction   Mike McFadden 43.2%                        Al Franken 52.0%
Result   Mike McFadden 42.9%                        Al Franken 53.2%




MS: Thad Cochran* 48.0%               Travis Childers 30.4%         Shawn O`Hara 03.5%
Prediction   Thad Cochran 55.2%                           Travis Childers 41.2%
Result   Thad Cochran 60.4%                           Travis Childers 37.4%



MT: Steve Daines 57.1%                  Amanda Curtis* 37.1%            Roger Roots   02.7%
Prediction    Steve Daines 58.3%                           Amanda Curtis 38.9%
Result   Steve Daines 57.9%                           Amanda Curtis 40.0%


NC: Thom Tillis 46.9%                  Kay Hagan* 44.9%               Sean Haugh 02.8%
Prediction    Thom Tillis 50.1%                            Kay Hagan 47.0%
Result   Thom Tillis 49.0%                            Kay Hagan 47.3%





NE: Ben Sasse* 57.9%                     David Domina 30.8%            Others 01.0%
Prediction   Ben Sasse 62.0%                           David Domina 36.9%
Result    Ben Sasse 64.8%                           David Domina 31.1%




NH: Scott Brown 49.2%                  Jeanne Shaheen* 48.2%         Gardner Goldsmith 01.7%
Prediction   Scott Brown 49.8%                           Jeanne Shaheen 48.5%
Result   Scott Brown 48.4%                           Jeanne Shaheen 51.6%




NJ: Jeff Bell 38.8%                        Cory Booker* 53.4%            Others 01.2%
Prediction   Jeff Bell 42.8%                              Cory Booker 56.0%
Result   Jeff Bell 42.0%                              Cory Booker 56.2%



NM: Allen Weh 40.8%                     Tom Udall* 52.8%               Others 01.9%
Prediction   Allen Weh 43.7%                              Tom Udall 54.3%
Result   Allen Weh 44.6%                              Tom Udall 55.4%




OK: Jim Inhofe* 62.7%                  Matt Silverstein 27.3%         Others 02.7%
Prediction   Jim Inhofe 65.6%                           Matt Silverstein 31.6%
Result   Jim Inhofe 68.0%                           Matt Silverstein 28.5%


OK: James Lankford* 62.2%            Constance Johnson 27.6%      Mark Beard 02.0%
Prediction   James Lankford 65.5%                        Constance Johnson 32.5%
Result   James Lankford 67.9%                        Constance Johnson 29.0%




OR: Monica Wehby 38.2%               Jeff Merkley* 52.6%            Other 02.6%
Prediction   Monica Weheby 42.2%                        Jeff Merkley 55.2%
Result    Monica Weheby 38.2%                        Jeff Merkley 55.0%



RI: Mark Zaccaria 22.8%               Jack Reed* 63.5%               Other 01.0%
Prediction   Mark Zaccaria 31.1%                         Jack Reed 67.9%
Result   Mark Zaccaria 29.5%                         Jack Reed 70.5%




SC:Tim Scott* 55.3%                     Joyce Dickerson 30.0%         Jill Bossi 02.0%
Prediction    Tim Scott 60.4%                           Joyce Dickerson 37.6%
Result      Tim Scott 61.2%                           Joyce Dickerson 37.1%




SC: Lindsay Graham* 44.1%            Brett Hutto 28.2%               Thomas Ravenel 09.3%
Prediction    Lindsay Graham 51.5%                        Brett Hutto 39.2%
Result   Lindsay Graham 54.5%                        Brett Hutto 38.9%




SD: Mike Rounds 46.9%                  Rick Weiland* 33.7%            Larry Pressler   16.3%      
Prediction    Mike Rounds 48.1%                           Rick Weiland 35.5%                        Larry Pressler 16.3%
Result   Mike Rounds 50.4%                           Rick Weiland 29.5%                        Larry Pressler 17.1%




TN: Lamar Alexander* 52.7%            William Gordon Ball 32.3%      Others: 04.0%
Prediction    Lamar Alexander 57.1%                        William Gordon Ball 38.9%
Result   Lamar Alexander 61.9%                        William Gordon Ball 31.8%




TX : John Cornyn * 55.9%               David Alameel 33.3%            Others 04.6%
Prediction    John Cornyn 58.4%                           David Alameel 37.0%
Result   John Cornyn 61.5%                           David Alameel 34.4%




VA: Ed Gillespie 43.9%               Mark Warner* 51.6%         Robert Sarvis 03.0%
Prediction    Ed Gillespie 44.9%                           Mark Warner 52.1%
Result   Ed Gillespie 48.4%                           Mark Warner 49.2%                         too close to call-recount




WV: Shelley Moore Capito 56.6%         Natalie Tennant* 37.3%         Other 01.5%
Prediction      Shelly  Moore Capito 59.6%                     Natalie Tennant 38.9%
Result       Shelly  Moore Capito 62.1%                     Natalie Tennant 34.5%



WY: Mike Enzi* 68.9%                  Charlie Hardy 23.7%            Other 03.0%
Prediction      Mike Enzi 70.7%                              Charlie Hardy 26.3%
Result      Mike Enzi 72.3%                              Charlie Hardy 17.6%

[King]

I, too, am always right if you ignore when I'm wrong. We have a lot in common.