Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Vosem]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

[Ebsy]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

How is the NDP winning not fun? Ending 44 years of one party rule is the best kind of election.

[Vosem]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

How is the NDP winning not fun? Ending 44 years of one party rule is the best kind of election.

Not when it's a party like the NDP. I was very excited for Wildrose's majority in 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Excited but also very nervous ATM.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

How is the NDP winning not fun? Ending 44 years of one party rule is the best kind of election.

Not when it's a party like the NDP. I was very excited for Wildrose's majority in 2012

Vosem, out of curiosity, are there any circumstances in which you’d concede that a left-of-center government would be desirable? I ask because I genuinely think that my preferred political history of any given country in an ideal world would involve an alternation of staunchly left-wing and moderately conservative governments, wherein the latter would serve to contextualize and when necessary moderate the gains made under the former, and reconcile them to the more traditionalist elements of society. For example, while I don’t actually think that the Churchill-Eden-Macmillan-Home string of governments was a good thing (possibly excepting Macmillan; I have a soft spot for the guy and am not sure why), if somebody like Bevan had been Prime Minister instead of Attlee I might. Similarly I can see an argument for one term of Thatcher having been a good thing, but for the love of all that is holy not all three. I might feel likewise about Eisenhower had Truman’s veto of Taft-Hartley been sustained. Would you be willing to concede the inverse? Because if you wouldn’t, what you’ll be left with is at best a situation like Japan, where there’s a structural bias towards the right so strong that the same right-leaning party has provided Prime Ministers for fifty-four out of the past sixty years, and over that time has developed into more a series of interlocking and ostensibly allied criminal and anticonstitutional conspiracies than anything else (admittedly, as I suppose any entity cofounded by Kishi Nobusuke would have to eventually).

Or a situation like, well, Alberta.

[Ebsy]

The die is cast.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It begins.

[Lief 🗽]

aw man, I guess they only trot out Peter Mansbridge for the federal elections.

[trebor204]

Results

http://results.elections.ab.ca/wtResultsPGE.htm

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How long does it usually take for polls to start reporting?

[Hatman 🍁]

How long does it usually take for polls to start reporting?

5-10 minutes

[136or142]

Why does the CBC Alberta votes video timer say 19:00?

[Boston Bread]

It should become apparent very quickly whether the polls were remotely close at all once the seat numbers start appearing. We are talking about a huge margin of error if the NDP loses.

[Boston Bread]

This is more nerve-racking than Ontario, and I don't even live in Alberta (despite my tribute avatar).

[MaxQue]

It should become apparent very quickly whether the polls were remotely close at all once the seat numbers start appearing. We are talking about a huge margin of error if the NDP loses.

Through, I don't know how Alberta counts. If they count early vote first, NDP vote will look lower than it's really, because early votes lean strongly towards PC, logically.

But, they may count them last, too? Anyone has a clue?

[Vosem]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

How is the NDP winning not fun? Ending 44 years of one party rule is the best kind of election.

Not when it's a party like the NDP. I was very excited for Wildrose's majority in 2012

Vosem, out of curiosity, are there any circumstances in which you’d concede that a left-of-center government would be desirable?

Certainly; when a country or province has been ruled by far-right or dictatorially right government, or just by a right-wing government for many years, I do think there should be some snap-back and that it's harmful for any single tendency to govern for too long. It's hard to explain without going into specifics. But, in the case of Alberta, I'm not sure the government before Prentice could really be characterized as right-wing (Redford was elected by cannibalizing left-wing votes in 2012), and I also don't feel like the NDP are the best option -- I'd be OK with the Liberals, who are center-left, winning a majority and governing for a little while.

I ask because I genuinely think that my preferred political history of any given country in an ideal world would involve an alternation of staunchly left-wing and moderately conservative governments, wherein the latter would serve to contextualize and when necessary moderate the gains made under the former, and reconcile them to the more traditionalist elements of society.

I'd alternate the 'staunch' and 'moderate', but I basically agree. I think leftist governments are especially useful for recognizing cultural shifts (for instance, the broad legalization of gay marriage in the US, before it was taken up by the courts, was done by left-wing state governments) or reversing economic policy when it occasion goes too far (though it's difficult for me to think of examples of the latter, I'm sure I could given some time).

For example, while I don’t actually think that the Churchill-Eden-Macmillan-Home string of governments was a good thing (possibly excepting Macmillan; I have a soft spot for the guy and am not sure why), if somebody like Bevan had been Prime Minister instead of Attlee I might. Similarly I can see an argument for one term of Thatcher having been a good thing, but for the love of all that is holy not all three. I might feel likewise about Eisenhower had Truman’s veto of Taft-Hartley been sustained. Would you be willing to concede the inverse?

Absolutely. Most of the examples you cite I think of as examples of pretty good governments, but I can concede that (for instance) the Australian Liberals had been in power far too long by 1972 and a short correction was necessary, or that the British Conservatives were in power too long by 1997 and that a term of Blair was also beneficial (though, as in your analysis, I agree that three were too much). But, once again, I don't see the NDP taking over in Alberta in quite the same light, not because I approve of the PCs but because I disapprove of the NDP and think better options exist.

Because if you wouldn’t, what you’ll be left with is at best a situation like Japan, where there’s a structural bias towards the right so strong that the same right-leaning party has provided Prime Ministers for fifty-four out of the past sixty years, and over that time has developed into more a series of interlocking and ostensibly allied criminal conspiracies than anything else (admittedly, as I suppose any entity cofounded by Kishi Nobusuke would have to eventually).

Or a situation like, well, Alberta.

I think you know me well enough to know that isn't what I support or would like to see in government

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yeah, this is the most interesting thing in Canadian politics for a while. Even if the polls are basically correct, the swings to the NDP are likely non-uniform, making for an unpredictable map.

[136or142]

Has any U.S state had one party hold the governership for as long as the Alberta P.Cs?  

The longest I can think of may be the Democrats in Oregon.  the Governor of Washington State has been a Democrat since 1984.

[Boston Bread]

Has any U.S state had one party hold the governership for as long as the Alberta P.Cs?  

The longest I can think of may be the Democrats in Oregon.  the Governor of Washington State has been a Democrat since 1984.

SD has had GOP governors since the 70's, not quite as long but it's comparable. But oddly they've elected many Dem reps in the meantime.

[Vosem]

PCs lead in 2 ridings -- West Yellowhead and Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. First results.

[Talleyrand]

Calling it now. A PC majority.

[Lief 🗽]

PC 46% of the vote, IT'S HAPPENING

[RogueBeaver]

PC 46% of the vote, IT'S HAPPENING

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

*snip*

All right, good to know. I thought so, I just wanted to make sure. Your point about your preference for the Alberta Liberals is well-taken, though I suspect you and David Swann may be the only people who think that at this point.

[Vosem]

PCs now lead in three ridings -- aforementioned two and Calgary-East.