Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Boston Bread]

EKOS and the Calgary-Foothills numbers would suggest that the NDP is continuing to surge into the last minute of the campaign. Whereas in AB 2012 and BC 2013 the incumbents were catching up in the polls at this point. Which suggests to me that an NDP majority remains the most likely outcome.

[RogueBeaver]

If the polls hold and Wildrose forms OO to a Dipper government, how long till the PC Party dissolves into Wildrose? Maybe not formally but I'd expect a shaking-out process like here in QC when the UN collapsed.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, NC... as I've said repeatedly, the big shift came the day before the election in 2012. We are still 2 days away.

[DL]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

rumors that up to 22 wild rose candidates may switch to pc to prevent an ndp government

is that plausible?

[Phony Moderate]

rumors that up to 22 wild rose candidates may switch to pc to prevent an ndp government

is that plausible?

Wildrose has shown itself to be utterly spineless before so perhaps it will again.

[MaxQue]

rumors that up to 22 wild rose candidates may switch to pc to prevent an ndp government

is that plausible?

Possible, but hard to believe. Would destroy Wildrose once for all and would only postpone PC loss.

[Talleyrand]

How are they going to come up with the $2.2 million in fees they need to pay WRP if they cross the floor?

[Hatman 🍁]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

It's today's polls that matter, not yesterday's (if we want to compare to 2012). If we see no movement today, then an NDP majority is pretty much assured.

[MaxQue]

How are they going to come up with the $2.2 million in fees they need to pay WRP if they cross the floor?

That kind of contract is unappliable and illegal (you can't bound an officeholder to do or not do things by contract).

[Linus Van Pelt]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

It's today's polls that matter, not yesterday's (if we want to compare to 2012). If we see no movement today, then an NDP majority is pretty much assured.

Polls are not that accurate.

[RogueBeaver]

Several polls will be out today, per Grenier. Apart from EKOS and maybe Forum, wonder who.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When do polls close? This one will actually be an interesting election worth watching...something we haven't had since the Scottish independence referendum.

[RogueBeaver]

8PM Mountain Time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also I'm not too sure why defections would even be a question.

If you end up a result where PC seats + WR seats > NDP seats, then the PCs and WR can just form a coalition government. And if you end up with a result where PC vote + WR vote > NDP vote but NDP still wins a majority of seats thanks to FPTP, well then it's too late. Anything I'm missing?

[Хahar 🤔]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

[Hatman 🍁]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

It's today's polls that matter, not yesterday's (if we want to compare to 2012). If we see no movement today, then an NDP majority is pretty much assured.

Polls are not that accurate.

Ha, of course... but I may be biased, you see

[DL]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

Not true in 1999 the Saskatchewan NDP formed a coalition with the Saskatchewan Liberals - it lasted a full four years and no one seemed to mind.

[Boston Bread]

Wildrose internals predicting an NDP majority, coming from Jean himself. You gotta wonder what the PC internals are showing now...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/brian-jean-says-internal-wildrose-polls-show-ndp-majority-1.3060172

Edit: And we have the first poll in the whole campaign not showing an upwards NDP trend!
http://1abvote.ca/ndp-have-momentum-on-social-cue-for-e-day/
1abvote's final poll shows the NDP static at 44%, maintaining a huge lead over Wildrose who moved into second at 22%. PC third at 19%. Interestingly the NDP are performing much better in rest of AB (43%) than in Calgary (33%).

[Хahar 🤔]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

Not true in 1999 the Saskatchewan NDP formed a coalition with the Saskatchewan Liberals - it lasted a full four years and no one seemed to mind.

I said almost no exceptions, not no exceptions whatsoever. Saskatchewan in 1999 was obviously an anomalous case. It is also not really relevant to the question asked, since the NDP was the largest party, and merely formed a coalition government rather than forming a minority government. In any case, the Saskatchewan Liberal Party hasn't won a seat since 1999, so I would imagine that that is not an example that either the PCs or Wildrose are jumping to emulate.

A better example would be Ontario in 1985, but that was also highly anomalous, and its purpose was to dislodge a long-serving government, not to keep it in office.

[Boston Bread]

It looks like the Edmonton Journal fell to the same fate as the Globe and Mail did in Ontario 2014. The editor in chief of the Edmonton Journal confirmed that Postmedia ownership demanded a Prentice endorsement, despite their prior policy of not endorsing anyone.

https://twitter.com/bcbluecon/status/595268958057570304

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS: 44.3-24-22.5.

[Hatman 🍁]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

Not true in 1999 the Saskatchewan NDP formed a coalition with the Saskatchewan Liberals - it lasted a full four years and no one seemed to mind.

I said almost no exceptions, not no exceptions whatsoever. Saskatchewan in 1999 was obviously an anomalous case. It is also not really relevant to the question asked, since the NDP was the largest party, and merely formed a coalition government rather than forming a minority government. In any case, the Saskatchewan Liberal Party hasn't won a seat since 1999, so I would imagine that that is not an example that either the PCs or Wildrose are jumping to emulate.

A better example would be Ontario in 1985, but that was also highly anomalous, and its purpose was to dislodge a long-serving government, not to keep it in office.

And 1985 wasn't an actual coalition, either. And wont have any validity in this case if the NDP wins the popular vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wildrose internals predicting an NDP majority, coming from Jean himself. You gotta wonder what the PC internals are showing now...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/brian-jean-says-internal-wildrose-polls-show-ndp-majority-1.3060172

Edit: And we have the first poll in the whole campaign not showing an upwards NDP trend!
http://1abvote.ca/ndp-have-momentum-on-social-cue-for-e-day/
1abvote's final poll shows the NDP static at 44%, maintaining a huge lead over Wildrose who moved into second at 22%. PC third at 19%. Interestingly the NDP are performing much better in rest of AB (43%) than in Calgary (33%).

44% must be the NDP's ceiling in Alberta. Whodathunk?

[Hatman 🍁]

It looks like the Edmonton Journal fell to the same fate as the Globe and Mail did in Ontario 2014. The editor in chief of the Edmonton Journal confirmed that Postmedia ownership demanded a Prentice endorsement, despite their prior policy of not endorsing anyone.

https://twitter.com/bcbluecon/status/595268958057570304

The media in this country disgusts me