Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[politicallefty]

I'm among those that believe the PCs won in 2012 by capturing a significant number of centrist and centre-left voters that feared a Wildrose Government. However, I also think it's worth looking at the personal approval ratings of the party leaders. In 2012, Redford was very popular, by a rather large 59-22 margin. Smith may have been at 46-26, but too much of the electorate was out of reach for her, especially considering Redford's popularity and centrism. Currently, Notley is almost nearing the popularity of Redford in 2012, at 53-22 (not to mention her strong approvals are higher than her entire disapproval rating as a whole). Prentice's numbers being at 31-53 should not give much rise to optimism for the PCs.

The polling consensus doesn't even say the NDP has even peaked. Unless there's some huge late shift, I think an NDP Majority Government is the most probable result, and it could be quite huge if the PC/Wildrose vote divides just right. It seems like 39-40% is what the NDP needs to win a majority (provided they also win by about at least 10%).

The one thing I am curious about is the situation with the ridings of each leader (and I would hope some more knowledgeable people would help me). Obviously, Notley is extremely safe and appears to now hold one of the safest seats in the entire country. I'm also aware of the Alberta Party's leader making a strong effort for Calgary-Elbow, which is probably a toss-up. What is the general consensus on Prentice, Swann, and Jean? It seems like the latter two could conceivably go down, but is Prentice really in one of the safest Tory seats in the province (not that I would expect him to stay for very long if his party does go down in massive defeat)?

[Hatman 🍁]

Jean will win easily. I imagine Prenitce and Swann could be in trouble.

[Boston Bread]

Jean will win easily. I imagine Prenitce and Swann could be in trouble.

In an NDP or PC landslide, Jean could lose to either, although he currently has the advantage. I'd say the NDP has an outside chance if turnout is up a lot - that part of Alberta just doesn't turn out typically. Prentice seems to be more secure than Jean, being an incumbent and having a large by-election win, but we can't be certain. Swann is likewise favoured but could be ousted by an NDP wave. The consensus is that Calgary-Elbow is a PC-Alberta tossup, with a small chance of an NDP win if things really get out of hand.

[Njall]

Jean will win easily. I imagine Prenitce and Swann could be in trouble.

I'd actually disagree with this analysis.  I think that Jean is favoured in Fort McMurray-Conklin, but he doesn't have it tied up.  Fort McMurray historically has pretty low voter turnout, so GOTV is crucial, and the PCs are generally considered to be the best party when it comes to ground game.  It's also worth noting that in the last election, Fort McMurray voters voted the incumbent Wildrose MLA out of office in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo.  Despite the geographic sizes of both Fort McMurray ridings, it is important to remember that their populations are almost entirely urban.  Urban Alberta largely rejected the WRP in 2012, and most WRP strength is still found in rural areas.

I think that Swann will hold Calgary-Mountain View.  Because it's a Calgary riding with a progressive incumbent, the common logic is that progressive voters will rally behind him.  I know too that early on, Mountain View was the only Calgary seat that the central PC campaign had privately given up on.

Prentice should also be safe in Calgary-Foothills.  His is one of the strongest PC seats in the provine these days, and during the by-elections, this was the only one of the four seats to see an increase in PC vote share.  Additionally, that riding (the Edgemont area in particular) has a fairly sizeable Chinese-Canadian population, and I'm told that that demographics tends to be very strongly PC, especially in Foothills.

Oh, and for Calgary-Elbow, it'll either be the PCs or AP.  Judging by the sign game (and the lack of a serious Liberal candidate), Clark is favoured, but Dirks is a very strong campaigner, so I wouldn't count him out yet.

[Meeker]

Is the NDP surge being driven by throw-the-bums-out-PC sentiment, or have the NDP themselves done something particularly noteworthy? Even combining the past NDP and Liberal vote gets them no where close to where they're polling at now.

[Talleyrand]

Is Blakeman cooked or does she have any chance at all?

[Boston Bread]

Is Blakeman cooked or does she have any chance at all?

Going by a proportional swing model, she is headed for a 30 point loss to the NDP. Even though Liberal incumbents were stronger than predicted last time around, this is too big a hole to dig out of, barring a huge polling failure.

[RogueBeaver]

Carter says his PC sources are saying they're still confident of a majority. Globe's Justin Giovanetti says same, Edmonton Journal's Graham Thomson hints.

[adma]

It's not just since 2008 though.  I think it's a common understanding that progressives in Alberta have backed the PC party for some time now to stop anything further right from governing.

Except that from the fall of the Socreds in '71 to the rise of Wildrose in '12, there *wasn't* any such truly threatening "further right" force--except, maybe, the Western Canada Concept blip-that-wasn't in 1982.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Blakeman cooked or does she have any chance at all?

Considering the NDP is polling at 70% in Edmonton (according to some polls), then no.

Is the NDP surge being driven by throw-the-bums-out-PC sentiment, or have the NDP themselves done something particularly noteworthy? Even combining the past NDP and Liberal vote gets them no where close to where they're polling at now.

Mostly "throw the bums out" but also because Rachel Notley is the strongest of the leaders.

[Boston Bread]

My model gives the following result with 308's poll average:

Popular Vote
42% NDP
26% WR
25% PC
5% LIB
2% AB
1% OTH

Edmonton
23 NDP

Calgary
13 NDP, 8 PC, 4 WR, 2 LIB, 1 AB

Rest of AB
19 NDP, 17 WR

Seat Count
55 NDP
21 WR
8 PC
2 LIB
1 AB

And as for Blakeman - my model shows her being wiped out by a 3-1 margin. That's what happens when the NDP poll >60% in Edmonton and the Liberals poll less than one-tenth of that.

Edit: here is the map (template from Teddy's blog)

Note I didn't use any riding polls in my model. If I did the only difference might be Calgary-Shaw going NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Some predictions

1) NDP will win a slim majority government in spite of their concentrated vote
2) David Swann will retain his seat as a quasi-independent MLA
3) The PC's will hold onto enough seats that their death won't be a foregone conclusion

[Talleyrand]

My predictions- another huge divergence from the polls.

PCs- 51
NDP- 19
WR- 16
Lib- 1

You heard it here first.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

[Lotuslander]

Mainstreet Poll:


Edmonton
73% NDP

Does not seem logical. At all. Even with NDP surge. That's why I believe that the post-mortem on the AB campaign will focus upon major polling discrepancies v. actual results.

[Boston Bread]

My predictions- another huge divergence from the polls.

PCs- 51
NDP- 19
WR- 16
Lib- 1

You heard it here first.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

The NDP lead in polling at this point is larger than WR's lead in 2012 and the BCNDP's lead in 2013... it would rip the polling industry a new one.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Just think, if the polls here and in Manitoba currently come to pass, the only NDP provincial government in Canada will be in goddamn Alberta of all places! Could anyone have seen this coming even 2 weeks ago?

[136or142]

It's not just since 2008 though.  I think it's a common understanding that progressives in Alberta have backed the PC party for some time now to stop anything further right from governing.

Except that from the fall of the Socreds in '71 to the rise of Wildrose in '12, there *wasn't* any such truly threatening "further right" force--except, maybe, the Western Canada Concept blip-that-wasn't in 1982.

There was also the Representative Party in 1986, the Social Credit Party in 1998 and the Alberta Alliance in 2004 that also all pretty much flamed out, though both the Rep Party and the AA did manage to win at least one seat.  Social Credit in 1975 and 1979 also managed to get nearly 20% of the vote both times.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just think, if the polls here and in Manitoba currently come to pass, the only NDP provincial government in Canada will be in goddamn Alberta of all places! Could anyone have seen this coming even 2 weeks ago?

I had been worrying that Canada would be without an NDP provincial government in any province. When was the last time that happened?

ETA: Just looked it up: You have to go all the way back to 1969 (if you count the Yukon).

[Meeker]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

[DL]

Actually I think its more recent than that - after the Pawley gov't was defeated in Manitoba in 1988 there was a two year period of no NDP provincial governments before Bob rae won in Ontario in 1990 and the a year later the NDP win BC and Saskatchewan

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually I think its more recent than that - after the Pawley gov't was defeated in Manitoba in 1988 there was a two year period of no NDP provincial governments before Bob rae won in Ontario in 1990 and the a year later the NDP win BC and Saskatchewan

The Yukon had an NDP government during that period.

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

[Ebsy]

But dear Hatman, the Yukon isn't a province; it's a federal territory!

[Meeker]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

Ah, good point. I had just been clicking around the really rural constituencies in the north.

[MaxQue]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

Ah, good point. I had just been clicking around the really rural constituencies in the north.

Even the North isn't rural. It's usually called "remote". Cities and towns linked through totally empty forests. There is no farming there.

[136or142]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

Leaving aside the already mentioned mid sized cities and the northern riding of Athabaska, I don't believe the NDP topped 10% of the vote in a single rural riding in 2012, and they got less than 5% of the vote in many of them.