Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

It looks like Alberta has its very own t_host.

jao.

Anyways, njall, when are you going to join the dark side? It's all the rage to be an NDPer in Alberta now.

[andrew_c]

I'm not familiar with Alberta politics but it looks like the election was called right after a bad news budget? They didn't give time to people to digest it and do polling to evualate the reaction? Maybe the strategy is just to bet the other parties are not organized or credible enough.

The PC strategy was to label the other parties as extremists.

[Lotuslander]

I can foresee this scenario playing out to last few days of campaign:

1. WR in lead in polls;

2. PCs in 2nd;

3. NDP in 3rd;

And same poli dynamic coming into play at the very end of the campaign as in 2012 - soft NDP parked votes return to vote PC to stave off potential WR victory as polls indicate to public. Another 2012 re-run.

[DL]

In a three way dead heat no one has any reason to defect from one party to another because all parties have hope...in 2012 the NDP and the Liberals were each barely polling over 10% the entire campaign...we are one week into this campaign and three polls in a row have actually placed the PCs third behind WR AND the NDP - what's more likely to happen is that the PC vote continues to collapse as those PCs who hate the NDP more than they hate Wildrose shift Wildrose and those PCs who hate Wildrose more than they hate the NDP vote NDP - by May 5 the PC could be in the teens and facing total annhilation.

Also in 2012 Alison Redford was very appealing to Liberal/NDP voters in a way that Jim Prentice is not at all. Redford was seen back then as a left of centre small "l" liberal who had staged a hostile takeover of the PC party with the support of teachers unions and she was seen as PC in name only and really as a closet Liberal. Prentice is a very rightwing PC who is so rightwing that Danielle Smioth and most of Wildrose defected to the PC party as soon as he took over. His policies are literally identical to those of the Wildrose Party - which is not surprising since Prentice and Wildrose leader Brian Jean sat side by side as Conservative MPs and Jean even donated $10,000 to Prentice's PC leadership campaign!

[Lotuslander]

Completely different election dynamics in Alberta. Remember that the fed Harper Cons had MASSIVE vote majorities in virtually all AB ridings in 2011? NDP and even Liberal/AB Party are poli losers provincially with that underlying poli dynamic. At the end of the day. No doubt.

BTW, I would categorize Prentice as more of a "red tory" or "blue liberal" along the lines of Frank McKenna for example. Not a stereotypical social-con, right-wing federal CPC type. In fact, Prentice comes across, to me at least, as someone who is very similar to Peter Lougheed.

And bringing over WR MLAs was just a poli strategic move - which obviously has not worked out - and perhaps even back-fired -  to date.

[Joe Republic]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

Was this published via telegram?

[Sumner 1868]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

Was this published via telegram?

No. It's at the top of the comment's board:

http://daveberta.ca/alberta-election/

[Joe Republic]

*whoosh*

[adma]

Re Prentice: I wouldn't go so far with the "hard right" (or doomed-to-free-fall) label as DL does, but he's probably the most boardroom-technocratic premier Alberta has seen since Lougheed, if that makes sense.  Which *could* be a plus, when it comes to projecting (esp. come debate time) a steady-hand-on-the-tiller a la McGuinty (or even Harper).  But all the same, his "red Toryness" is more by present-day federal Con standards; and esp. after the WR caucus poach, I'd agree that he's not as becoming a stop-WR left/moderate vote-park as Redford was in 2012.  Nor has he the folksy charm of a Stelmach or Klein--if anything, he reminds me more of the kind of "electable" direction Danielle Smith was *trying* to turn WR into before the bozo eruptions upended a "sure thing".

In fact, if *any* of the present leaders (the jury still being out on Brian Jean) has so far proven a master at Klein-like crowd-drawing "folksy charm", it's Rachel Notley.  So as much as one'd like to paint Lib/NDP a losing proposition in Alberta, it's different when we're dealing with "Notleymania"--without her in charge, yes, the NDP might be doomed to their requisite 3 or 4 or 5 seats in Edmonton; but with her, it's different--and perhaps to Alberta voters, worth the risk of "throwing" an election to Wildrose over.  (And if it seems so implausible because Alberta seems so monolithically right wing--well, remember how the Rob/Doug Ford voting base in Toronto came to be the kinds of all-too-often-underclass multiracial ethnoburbans that otherwise ordinarily support Lib/NDP.  Politics is funny that way.)

Completely different election dynamics in Alberta. Remember that the fed Harper Cons had MASSIVE vote majorities in virtually all AB ridings in 2011? NDP and even Liberal/AB Party are poli losers provincially with that underlying poli dynamic. At the end of the day. No doubt.

BTW, I would categorize Prentice as more of a "red tory" or "blue liberal" along the lines of Frank McKenna for example. Not a stereotypical social-con, right-wing federal CPC type. In fact, Prentice comes across, to me at least, as someone who is very similar to Peter Lougheed.

And bringing over WR MLAs was just a poli strategic move - which obviously has not worked out - and perhaps even back-fired -  to date.

[DL]

Prentice is basically "a suit" he is the Alberta version of Gordon Campbell or Mitt Romney

[Njall]

Anyways, njall, when are you going to join the dark side? It's all the rage to be an NDPer in Alberta now.

Haha, not for a while yet.  I'm highly supportive of my local PC MLA (Linda Johnson), so I'm sticking with the party at least as long as she's in office

[politicallefty]

I have to say the current polling is making this election look very interesting. I'm sure a lot of people are comparing this year to 2012, but I don't think that comparison works when you consider the current dynamics. As others have assuredly already noted, the 2012 PC coalition was very atypical, full of many centrist/centre-left voters wooed by Red Tory Alison Redford in opposition to a firmly right-wing alternative.

If the current polling holds (or anything close to it), it looks like Alberta will be electing its first minority government. Obviously, I'm not Albertan or Canadian, but I would personally love to see the NDP take control of Alberta. The end of the longest political dynasty in Canada would be historic. Regardless of who wins, it does seem that Calgary is the key to victory. The NDP are running very strong in Edmonton, but that would end in a result short of victory. With the PCs and Wildrose fighting for the province outside Edmonton, it does seem like the NDP has an opening to clean house in Edmonton and perhaps make some inroads into Calgary. The odds may not be high, but current polling does suggest at least some possibility of an NDP victory. In any event, I'm assuming the winning party will have to have a serious presence in Calgary, correct (unless, of course, the popular vote mirrors the seat count)?

[Sumner 1868]

I have to say the current polling is making this election look very interesting. I'm sure a lot of people are comparing this year to 2012, but I don't think that comparison works when you consider the current dynamics. As others have assuredly already noted, the 2012 PC coalition was very atypical, full of many centrist/centre-left voters wooed by Red Tory Alison Redford in opposition to a firmly right-wing alternative.

If the current polling holds (or anything close to it), it looks like Alberta will be electing its first minority government. Obviously, I'm not Albertan or Canadian, but I would personally love to see the NDP take control of Alberta. The end of the longest political dynasty in Canada would be historic. Regardless of who wins, it does seem that Calgary is the key to victory. The NDP are running very strong in Edmonton, but that would end in a result short of victory. With the PCs and Wildrose fighting for the province outside Edmonton, it does seem like the NDP has an opening to clean house in Edmonton and perhaps make some inroads into Calgary. The odds may not be high, but current polling does suggest at least some possibility of an NDP victory. In any event, I'm assuming the winning party will have to have a serious presence in Calgary, correct (unless, of course, the popular vote mirrors the seat count)?

I really can't see the NDP winning here. If they somehow do, I doubt they'll be in office beyond three terms.

[politicallefty]

I really can't see the NDP winning here. If they somehow do, I doubt they'll be in office beyond three terms.

I never said they'd get one majority, let alone three. At best right now, the NDP can hope to rule in a minority government. Even that is a long shot. Short of forming a government, the best situation for the Alberta NDP would be as the Official Opposition to a minority government, whether it be PC or Wildrose.

[adma]

As others have assuredly already noted, the 2012 PC coalition was very atypical, full of many centrist/centre-left voters wooed by Red Tory Alison Redford in opposition to a firmly right-wing alternative.

And it helped that the Liberals under Raj Sherman (the main resource for such voters) were already perceived as "sickly" relative to previous elections.  Whereas the NDP "held its own", and doubled its caucus from the previous election.

What's *really* interesting to consider is that were *all* the Prairie provinces presently having concurrent provincial elections, Alberta might well wind up with more NDP seats than either Manitoba or Saskatchewan.

[DC Al Fine]

New Forum poll

Wildrose: 30%
NDP: 28%
PC: 27%
Lib: 12%
AB: 2%

The subs look particularly bad for the PC's. They are down 9 in Calgary for example. At those numbers, their relatively uniform vote distribution would start to burn them.

[Njall]

The NDP candidate in Medicine Hat has stepped down after being charged with simple assault by the Medicine Hat Police Service.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Krago]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lmao the Alberta Party has cunningly stolen the URL (and the PC's campaign slogan) ChooseAlbertasFuture.ca from the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

[Njall]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

There are so many problems with this...I don't even know where to begin.

[lilTommy]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

There are so many problems with this...I don't even know where to begin.

I think the polster admits they sku left, but look up at the forum poll; 32% vs 28% That's not that far off, I still believe the NDP will poll above 20%, 32% is minority government territory and Albertan's would have to be RIGHT PEEVED off to swing from PC to NDP

[Krago]

The last time the PCs lost an Alberta provincial election was three weeks after the Toronto Maple Leafs last won the Stanley Cup.

[Hatman 🍁]

The last time the PCs lost an Alberta provincial election was three weeks after the Toronto Maple Leafs last won the Stanley Cup.

Funny that hell freezing over is associated with both events.

[DL]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

Don't laugh, I've seen phone poll numbers quite similar to that!