PEI General Election 2015
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Author Topic: PEI General Election 2015  (Read 19454 times)
the506
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« Reply #25 on: April 18, 2015, 01:40:07 PM »
The Greens seem to be following the May/Coon strategy anyway and pushing all their efforts into getting Peter Bevan-Baker elected.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #26 on: April 18, 2015, 04:04:30 PM »
Let's hope the NDP doesn't follow the same strategy as they did in NB where they didn't target any specific ridings, and ended up empty handed.
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the506
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« Reply #27 on: April 21, 2015, 11:38:21 AM »
A voter originally from Denmark and upset with FPTP moves to the Green leader's riding. Faces $2000 fine.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/prince-edward-island-votes/moving-for-election-could-draw-2k-fine-jail-time-1.3041779
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2015, 01:16:21 PM »
FF
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the506
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« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2015, 02:40:20 PM »
Never heard of these folks, but we have our first poll. 43-27-18-12.

http://www.abingdon.ca/media/2015/04/Abingdon-Research-poll-of-PEI-election-puts-the-Liberals-in-the-lead.pdf

Apparently CRA (pollster of record on the east coast) is putting something out soon, I'd wait to see what they say.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #30 on: April 24, 2015, 05:29:17 PM »
First projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/2015-pei-election-projection-1.html
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the506
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« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2015, 09:11:13 AM »
CRA: 44-35-14-6.

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/Decision-15/2015-04-25/article-4124329/Liberals-ahead%2C-Tories-narrow-gap-as-P.E.I.-election-looms%3A-poll/1
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2015, 10:15:38 AM »
NDP's at 15% actually.

Hope they publish some regional crosstabs. The article keeps mentioning Queens County numbers. I can't imagine the other counties have much sample, though.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2015, 10:46:23 AM »
There are regional breaks, but this is all that was published in the Guardian:

Kings County: Lib 58, PC 31
Queens County: Lib 39, PC 37, NDP 18
Prince County: Liberal lead Huh

Kings County is traditionally the most Tory friendly, but you wouldn't know that by looking at the federal results.
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the506
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« Reply #34 on: April 27, 2015, 02:55:08 PM »
Debate tonight on CBC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/prince-edward-island-votes/p-e-i-campaign-trail-leaders-prepare-for-debate-1.3050038
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lilTommy
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« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2015, 01:53:24 PM »
Looks like a new Corporate Research Poll
http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/politics/liberal-lead-in-atlantic-canada-still-wide-but-shrinking-1.3052393

"Liberals are now averaging just 44.5 per cent support, their worst performance in the region in almost two years. The Conservatives, at 26 per cent, are putting up their best numbers since then. And the NDP, at 20 per cent, is at its highest level of support since last fall."
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2015, 02:02:58 PM »
That's just Grenier's analysis of the poll we've already discussed. He's masquerading as a journalist for CBC now!
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the506
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« Reply #37 on: May 01, 2015, 06:39:32 PM »
« Edited: May 01, 2015, 07:57:25 PM by the506 »
Greens release internal poll showing Bevan-Baker ahead in his seat.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/prince-edward-island-votes/green-party-poll-shows-tight-district-race-between-bevan-baker-docherty-1.3053752

They're following the David Coon playbook to the letter. They leaked a very similar poll right around this time.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2015, 07:34:35 PM »
Huge sample (344) for a riding in PEI.  Also the Greens got a bargain paying $1200.
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the506
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« Reply #39 on: May 04, 2015, 09:36:33 AM »
Election day. My prediction: 20-6-1.

Polls close at 7 AT (6 ET). Only TV coverage is CBC, which will be streaming here: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/prince-edward-island-votes
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #40 on: May 04, 2015, 01:59:54 PM »
My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/prince-edward-island-election-today.html
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #41 on: May 04, 2015, 05:01:54 PM »
Polls closing now.

Lib: 22
PC: 5

Let the games begin.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #42 on: May 04, 2015, 05:06:43 PM »
Grits leading in 4, Tories 1.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #43 on: May 04, 2015, 05:07:04 PM »
Lantz is trailing in his seat.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #44 on: May 04, 2015, 05:10:38 PM »
Quote from: DC Al Fine on May 04, 2015, 05:01:54 PM
Polls closing now.

Lib: 22
PC: 5

Let the games begin.

Yeah, should be very similar to 2011 elections. Anyways, in PEI, the result is always very similar to 22-5, Lib and PC switching places when government changes.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #45 on: May 04, 2015, 05:29:22 PM »
NDP leading in 1 now. Edit: not leading anymore but I'm surprised actually that they're competitive somewhere.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #46 on: May 04, 2015, 05:29:41 PM »
Charlottetown-Lewis Point seems to be a 3-way race between Liberal incumbent, NDP and PC. All 3 parties led.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #47 on: May 04, 2015, 05:33:05 PM »
NDP leader Redmond close second in Montague-Kilmuir.
PCs performing decently. At one point they were looking at a possible wipeout.
Liberals hit the magic 14 in leads.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #48 on: May 04, 2015, 05:36:50 PM »
NDP leading in Lewis Point again!
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MaxQue
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« Reply #49 on: May 04, 2015, 05:37:42 PM »

Shouldn't hold, through, that riding didn't counted early vote yet, which I suppose will lean Lib/PC.
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